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It could be just as you suggest, a chemical, toxic, nightmare, to be footed by
the tax payers. But I am thinking not so much, as the chemicals used have been
around for decades, with no great problem detected. Notice how cheaper the
gasoline is now? Notice how russia, iran, and the saudi economy has been
upended? The idea is a civilization completely powered by the sun. The real is
fracking. But we can always hope.
-----Original Message-----
From: 'Chris de Morsella' via Everything List <everything-list@googlegroups.com>
To: everything-list <everything-list@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Wed, Dec 24, 2014 03:31 PM
Subject: Re: Natural gas: The fracking fallacy
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<b><span style="font-weight:bold;">From:</span></b> spudboy100 via Everything
List <<a
href="mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com";>everything-list@googlegroups.com</a>>
<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">To:</span></b> <a
href="mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com";>everything-list@googlegroups.com</a>
<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sent:</span></b> Wednesday, December 24,
2014 12:22 PM
<b id="aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3429"><span style="font-weight:
bold;" id="aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3428">Subject:</span></b> Re:
Natural gas: The fracking fallacy
</font>
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id="aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3383">
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<font color="black" size="2" face="arial"> </font>
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>>It could be a bubble but its not. Nothing has paid off like shale gas.
>>Nothing else in the world has paid off like this.
</div>
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Wait till the taxpayer gets dumped on with all those underwater derivatives the
big money center banks have just made sure we are liable for. You have no idea
of the mountain of debt that is about to avalanche down on the US financial
system.
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Even a report I saw today on energy policy encouraged more expansion into solar
so that it will acquire 10% of the US electricity market. If this is correct,
then solar will be marginal unless there's a vast improvement in production and
storage, like we all hoped for. It's like all the wonders dreamed of over the
last several decades keep fading into the future, further and further. Probably
solar or fusion will never be marginal, this century, and the next energy
source after shale will be methane hydrates, and we all know what the fear of
AGW is focused on, as well as Siberia. I guess we play the hand we're dealt,
even though its not what we wanted.
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Ho Ho Ho
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<div id="aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3381">
Merry Scrooge Day
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<div id="aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3412">
and be in all the earlier tomorrow!
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id="aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3388">
-----Original Message-----
<br clear="none"> From: 'Chris de Morsella' via Everything List <<a
href="mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com";>everything-list@googlegroups.com</a>>
<br clear="none"> To: everything-list <<a
href="mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com";>everything-list@googlegroups.com</a>>
<br clear="none"> Sent: Wed, Dec 24, 2014 2:36 pm
<br clear="none"> Subject: Re: Natural gas: The fracking fallacy
<br clear="none">
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915AOLMsgPart_1_7623cdd5-33d1-4fa0-a659-4af9cfb1cfa2">
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<font face="Arial" size="2"
id="aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3704"> <b><span
style="font-weight:bold;">From:</span></b> John Clark <<a rel="nofollow"
shape="rect" target="_blank"
href="mailto:johnkcl...@gmail.com";>johnkcl...@gmail.com</a>><br clear="none">
<b><span style="font-weight:bold;">To:</span></b> <a rel="nofollow"
shape="rect" target="_blank" id="aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3705"
href="mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com";>everything-list@googlegroups.com</a>
<br clear="none"> <b><span style="font-weight:bold;">Sent:</span></b>
Wednesday, December 24, 2014 10:53 AM<br clear="none"> <b
id="aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3709"><span style="font-weight:bold;"
id="aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3708">Subject:</span></b> Re: Natural
gas: The fracking fallacy<br clear="none"> </font>
</div>
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5353">
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On Wed, Dec 24, 2014 'Chris de Morsella' via Everything List
<span dir="ltr"><<a rel="nofollow" shape="rect"
target="_blank"
href="mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com";>everything-list@googlegroups.com</a>></span>
wrote:
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<div class="aolmail_yiv3673053915gmail_extra"
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5350">
<div class="aolmail_yiv3673053915gmail_quote"
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5349">
<blockquote class="aolmail_yiv3673053915gmail_quote"
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5403" style="margin:0px 0px
0px 0.8ex;padding-left:1ex;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204,
204);border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid;">
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5402" lang="EN-US">
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5401">
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5400">
<span style="font-size:11pt;"> </span>> the very same
EIA that got it so wrong with the Monterey shale deposit reserve projections it
made in 2011
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5383">
>>Yes they got it wrong with Monterey, estimating reserves isn't easy and is
>>more a art than a science, but given that as far as anybody knows they got it
>>right with the Bakken and Eagle Ford formation and they alone account for 70%
>>of reserves so it's not a major consideration. Could they be wrong again?
>>Sure. Could you also be wrong about reserves? No way!
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5383">
Wrong!. Utterly wrong in fact, the Bakken did not account for 70% of the
reserve picture presented by the EIA between 2011 and the middle of 2014 when
they finally downgraded the Monterey shale reserve projections. The Monterey
reserves as stated by the EIA in their very highly visible projections they
made in 2011 accounted for well over 60% of the TOTAL tight oil reserves in the
USA INCLUDING the Bakken, Marcelus and Eagle Ford formations. In other words
the Bakken, the Marcelus and the Eagle Ford lumped together accounted for less
than 40% of the reserve figures touted by the EIA AND used to blow up this
massive bubble that is no bursting. The Monterey shale was the big daddy of
them all, according to the EIA. This announcement was highly cited by the
boosters of this bubble in order to whip up the mania of "The US becoming the
Saudi Arabia of shale". Only after the hoopla had served its intended purpose
(convincing investors that this was absolutely huge) were these non-existent
reserves quietly downgraded -- in a non media event "quiet" announcement -- and
by a whopping 94%!
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5383">
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<blockquote class="aolmail_yiv3673053915gmail_quote"
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5384" style="margin:0px 0px
0px 0.8ex;padding-left:1ex;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204,
204);border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid;">
> The EIA, IMO, is complicit in this fraud. And as evidence I produced the
> grossly overstated reserve numbers it produced for the Monterey shale
> deposits in 2011
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<div
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5368">
>>If you don't like the way they do it please describe the far superior method
>>that you have developed for estimating how much oil and gas in the ground can
>>be economically extracted. I'm all ears.
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5368">
I am not the one calling myself "The Energy Information Agency of the United
States of America" now am I. You give me the same monetary, human, legal and
political resources as the EIA and in five years I will give you numbers. Deal?
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<blockquote class="aolmail_yiv3673053915gmail_quote"
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5398" style="margin:0px 0px
0px 0.8ex;padding-left:1ex;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204,
204);border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid;">
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5397" lang="EN-US">
<div
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5396">
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5395"
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> I am describing a huge financial bubble,
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<div
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5348">
>>The first financial bubble in the history of the planet that went down not up.
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5348">
You really don't get bubbles do you? Bubbles go down when they blow up silly
man. When the housing bubble blew to pieces in 2007-2008 did housing prices
continue to rise? The shale play already has gone up John - it has sucked in
trillions of dollars and made the insiders billions of dollars. What the hell
do you think HAS BEEN happening during the past four years?
</div>
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5348">
This mania is now bursting.
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<blockquote class="aolmail_yiv3673053915gmail_quote"
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5359" style="margin:0px 0px
0px 0.8ex;padding-left:1ex;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204,
204);border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid;">
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5358" lang="EN-US">
<div
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5357">
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5356"
style="margin-bottom:12pt;">
> tied to tight oil sector energy derivatives that is bursting as we speak, yes.
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<div
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_6836">
>>Since the value of a energy derivative is a function of the value of the oil
>>(or gas) in the ground, and since the value of a barrel of oil is less than
>>half what it was just a few years ago then of course the value of those
>>energy derivatives are going to go down too. But you need to put your money
>>where your mouth is, you think the drop in the cost of oil is a very
>>temporary thing, therefore you should be buying those energy derivatives as
>>fast as you can. And you should be buying them on margin to give yourself
>>leverage, of course if you're wrong then the leverage works against you but
>>I'm sure there is no possibility you're wrong.
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_6836">
You should not be giving others free advice John.
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9383">
</div>
<blockquote class="aolmail_yiv3673053915gmail_quote"
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9387" style="margin:0px 0px
0px 0.8ex;padding-left:1ex;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204,
204);border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid;">
<div
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9386" lang="EN-US">
<div
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9385">
<div class="aolmail_yiv3673053915MsoNormal"
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9384"
style="margin-bottom:12pt;">
> I am describing this investment and perception mania that was manufactured
> on promises of endless supplies of new shale deposits.
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<div
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9388">
>>Bullshit, nobody promised endless supplies of anything.
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9388">
Bullshit -- read the press releases and the perception management that flooded
the media and was produced by think tank after think tank tied to these
interests. The shale boom was very much presented as being able to supply the
US with a secure and almost inexhaustible supply of fossil energy for a period
of four or more decades. I argued with some of these boosters during the ramp
up to this buble in 2009-2011 -- to hear them tell it the Bakken formation
extended down all the way to China -- I jest, but that is the essence of their
position. This boom has been sold as being able to secure America's energy
needs for many decades and in fact it was supposed to turn America into a major
supplier of gas and even oil to the the EU for example.
</div>
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9388">
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<blockquote class="aolmail_yiv3673053915gmail_quote"
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9401" style="margin:0px 0px
0px 0.8ex;padding-left:1ex;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204,
204);border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid;">
<div
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9400" lang="EN-US">
<div
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9399">
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9398">
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9397">
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9396">
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9395">
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9393">
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9391">
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9390">
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9389">
<div class="aolmail_yiv3673053915MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:12pt;">
<span
style="font-size:11pt;"><u></u><u></u></span>
</div> You do not seem to grasp the concept of
low cost producers being able to put the squeeze on the high cost producers
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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</div>
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9402">
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<div
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_10845">
>>It's only right and just that low cost producers put high cost producers of
>>oil or of anything else out of business, so if OPEC wishes to keep the shale
>>people out of the oil business they're going to have to keep their production
>>high enough that oil costs less than what the shale people cam make it for.
>>Currently it costs between $95 and $30 to produce a barrel of oil from shale
>>depending on the particulars of the geology, and as technology improves the
>>cost will go down. That explains why $147 for a barrel of oil as it was at
>>its peak in 2008 is not sustainable however much OPEC may wish it were, and
>>Saudi Arabia will run out of oil before the USA runs out of shale.
</div>
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_10845">
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_10845">
You have bought into the line presented by the cornucopean press releases hook
line and sinker. SHale oil does not cost $30 a barrel to produce. To pretend
that this is the low end of the typical cost curve is akin to pretending that
smoking crack is not damaging for your health. Given the very high depletion
rate and the need to "re-frack" existing wells within just a few years because
the fracking induced micro fractures tend to seal up quite rapidly -- even with
all those injected poppants -- a massive number (and massively expensive) of
drilling and fracking operations need to be sustained. This has proven
unsustainable -- and in fact the major oil companies of the world agree with
me, and have been getting out of the tight oil sector.
</div>
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id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_10845">
Sure there is some oil and gas in those shale formations, but not nearly as
much as the grossly unreliable EIA has been reporting. It is getting that
kerogen and gas out of the rock that is hard to do. You try squeezing oil out
of rock. It is not easy AND it is not cheap either.
</div>
<div dir="ltr"
id="aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_10845">
Saudi Arabia IS the world's low cost producer. The Saudi's CAN afford this
price war -- for the time being at least -- the US tight oil sector CANNOT. Oil
at under $60 is driving them bankrupt.
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-Chris
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John K Clark
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