Thank you, Dick, for this intelligent, useful and practical information. For the TM readers, please recall the cogent advice of Maharishi: Avert the danger BEFORE it arises. And if prevention did not work, he would tell us, GO SEE A DOCTOR.
Also recall that cover-19 damages your lungs. Is it worth it? Are you sure your lungs are in perfect shape right now? Prana flows, but let’s support a healthy flow. Again, thank you Dick Theresa Olson, Phd, Ms, Ma Msci > On Apr 22, 2020, at 2:52 PM, Dick Mays dickm...@lisco.com [FairfieldLife] > <FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com> wrote: > > > Dear Friends, > > Several of you have expressed support for the belief that COVID-19 is no more > deadly than the flu, and/or expressed support for anti-lockdown protests. To > these among you I ask a simple question, and then present some stats.. > > The question: How many times in the last 100 years have you heard of New > York City’s hospitals being completely overwhelmed by a flu? Detroit’s? > Milan’s? > Once—only this year. In other words, it’s an extremely rare occurrence. > If so, the probability that Covid-19 is just like any other flu would be > close to 1%. > > The stats: > > 1. How lethal is Covid-19 compared to flu? Here are CNN's stats on the > annual flu burden in the U.S. since 2010 from a cogent 3-minute interview of > Dr. Sanjay Gupta:* > Range of the number of illnesses in a year: 9,000,000-45,000,000 > Range of the number of hospitalizations in a year: 140,000-810,000 > Range of the number of deaths in a year: 12,000-61,000 > > Conclusion: The lethality of the flu in the U.S. during this period has been > 0.13%. > > 2. The Lancet estimated Covid-19’s lethality is 5.7%, and could be as high > as 20%.** This is 48-154 times as deadly as flu. > > 3. How easily does Covid-19 spread compared to flu? Here are CNN's stats > from a cogent 2-minute report*** on R0 ("R-naught”, the reproduction number), > a measure of how many people each patient will infect: > For Measles at the upper end, R0 = 12-18, so each person with measles will > infect 12-18 others. > For Ebola at the lower end, R0 = 1.5-2.5. > Flu varies year to year, but one study reports its R0 averages 1.2. > For Covid-19 the CDC reports the R0 = 2.2-2.7.**** > > Conclusion: Covid-19 is twice as contagious as the flu. > > 4. Combining the fact that Covid-19 is 48-158 times as lethal as the flu > with the fact that Covid-19 is twice as contagious as the flu, Covid-19 is > 96-316 times as deadly. That’s not "just like the flu!" > > 5. These facts justify a response to Covid-19 that has correspondingly > greater urgency than the flu. That response is especially urgent in the U.S. > because: > The world’s population is 7,800,000,000 and the U.S. population is > 327,000,000. > According to Johns Hopkins,***** the world has 2,561,044 confirmed cases, or > 328 cases per million. > According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. has 823,786 confirmed cases, or 2,519 > cases per million. That is 8 times worse than average for the world. > According to Johns Hopkins, the world has 176,921 deaths, or 23 deaths per > million. > According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. has 44,845 deaths, or 137 deaths per > million. That is 6 times worse than average for the world. > > 6. I’m not a doctor or epidemiologist, and the following statement is less > rigorous and more simplistic than the above sets of facts, and I could be > wrong: I’d say the primary ways of dealing with a new virus—until > vaccinations are available—are Containment, Tests, Contract Tracing, and > Social Distancing. > In the U.S., the opportunity for Containment lapsed in February. > In the U.S., the Tests are way behind the nation's need. > Harvard researchers estimate “We need to deliver 5 million tests per day by > early June to deliver a safe social reopening."****** > Harvard researchers estimate the U.S. needs "20 million tests a day (ideally > by late July) to fully remobilize the economy." > According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. has tested a total of only 4,155,178 > since testing began. > According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. tested only 151,627 in the past 24 hours. > Contact Tracing can’t begin to be effective until the tests are sufficient. > Until the U.S. ramps up its Tests and Contract Tracing, Social Distancing is > all that’s left. > > These are reasons for my reluctance to watch videos that encourage Americans > to dismiss social distancing and protest anti-lockdown measures. Until > Covid-19 is contained by much more tests and contract tracing—especially as > set forth by Harvard below—such advice will not only multiply our death > count, but prolong and deepen our economic contraction. > > Sincere best wishes, > Dick > > > * Link: > https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/02/27/trump-coronavirus-flu-news-conference-sanjay-gupta-newday-vpx.cnn > > <https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/02/27/trump-coronavirus-flu-news-conference-sanjay-gupta-newday-vpx.cnn> > ** Global mortality rates over time using a 14-day delay estimate are shown > in the figure > <https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext#fig1>, > with a curve that levels off to a rate of 5·7% (5·5–5·9), converging with > the current WHO estimates. Estimates will increase if a longer delay between > onset of illness and death is considered. A recent time-delay adjusted > estimation indicates that mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 20% > in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak. These findings show that the current > figures might underestimate the potential threat of COVID-19 in symptomatic > patients. Link: > https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext > > <https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext> > *** Link: > https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/03/03/how-viruses-spread-lon-md-orig.cnn > > <https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/03/03/how-viruses-spread-lon-md-orig.cnn> > **** Link: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article > <https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article> > ***** Link: > https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 > > <https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6> > ****** Link: > https://ethics.harvard.edu/files/center-for-ethics/files/roadmaptopandemicresilience_updated_4.20.20.pdf > > <https://ethics.harvard.edu/files/center-for-ethics/files/roadmaptopandemicresilience_updated_4.20.20.pdf> > > Very Important Note: Harvard’s "Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience” is amazingly > credible and strong. It concludes: > > We have no time to waste. We can save lives, save our health infrastructure, > mobilize our economy, protect our civil liberties, and secure the foundations > for a resilient constitutional democracy. We can be democracy’s bulwark > against this existential threat if we elevate our ambitions and determine to > act swiftly and with purpose. > > OUR ANCHOR RECOMMENDATION IS THIS: > > Between now and August, we should phase in economic mobilization in sync with > growth in our capacity to provide speedy, sustainable testing, tracing and > warning, and supported isolation and quarantine programs for mobilized > sectors of the workforce. We do not propose a modest level of testing, > tracing, and supported isolation intended to supplement collective quarantine > as a tool of disease control. We recommend a level of TTSI ambitious enough > to replace collective quarantine as a tool of disease control. > > We need to deliver 5 million tests per day by early June to deliver a safe > social reopening. This number will need to increase over time (ideally by > late July) to 20 million a day to fully remobilize the economy. Achieving > these numbers depends on testing innovation. We acknowledge that even this > number may not be high enough to protect public health. In that considerably > less likely eventuality, we will need to scale testing up much further. By > the time we know if we need to do that, we should be in a better position to > know how to do it. > > [From its Introduction: “(T)he cost of such a testing and tracing, or TTSI, > program—$50 to 300 billion over two years—is dwarfed by the economic cost of > continued collective quarantine of $100 to 350 billion a month. Furthermore, > this calculus neglects the lives being lost every week among workers in > essential sectors and the vulnerable populations they serve who remain > exposed to the virus even when stay-at-home advisories are in place. It also > neglects the fraying of the social fabric created by extended collective > quarantine.”] > > An effective strategy of pandemic resilience requires the following: > > • Innovation in testing methodologies. > > • A Pandemic Testing Board established by the federal government with strong > but narrow powers that has the job > of securing the testing supply and the infrastructure necessary for > deployment. > > • Federal and/or state guidance for state testing programs that accord with > due process, civil liberties, equal protection, non-discrimination, and > privacy standards. > > • Readiness frameworks to support local health leaders, mayors, tribal > leaders, and other public officials in establishing test administration > processes and isolation support resources. > > • Organizational innovation at the local level linking cities, counties, and > health districts, with specifics varying from state to state. > > • Federal and state investment in contact tracing personnel, starting with > an investment in 100,000 personnel (recommendation from JHU Center for Health > Security). > > • Clear mechanisms and norms of governance and enforcement around the design > and use of peer-to-peer warning apps, including maximal privacy protection, > availability of open source code for independent and regulatory audit, and > prohibitions on the use of any data from these apps for commercial purposes, > ideally achieved through pre-emptive legislation. > > • Support for quarantine and isolation in the form of jobs protections and > material support for time in quarantine and isolation as well as access to > health care. > > • An expanded U.S. Public Health Service Corps and Medical (or Health) > Reserves Corps (paid service roles), and addition of Health Reserves Corps to > the National Guard units of each state.. > > • National Infectious Disease Forecasting Center to modernize disease > tracking (recommendation from Scott Gottlieb, AEI). > > Consensus is emerging about what we need. How to do it is beginning to come > into view. The time for action has arrived. > > > > >