Thank you, Dick, for this intelligent, useful and practical information.
For the TM readers, please recall the cogent advice of Maharishi: Avert the
danger BEFORE it arises.
And if prevention did not work, he would tell us, GO SEE A DOCTOR.
Also recall that cover-19 damages your lungs. Is it worth it? Are you sure
your lungs are in perfect shape right now?
Prana flows, but let’s support a healthy flow.
Again, thank you Dick
Theresa Olson, Phd, Ms, Ma Msci
> On Apr 22, 2020, at 2:52 PM, Dick Mays dickm...@lisco.com [FairfieldLife]
> <FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
>
>
> Dear Friends,
>
> Several of you have expressed support for the belief that COVID-19 is no more
> deadly than the flu, and/or expressed support for anti-lockdown protests. To
> these among you I ask a simple question, and then present some stats..
>
> The question: How many times in the last 100 years have you heard of New
> York City’s hospitals being completely overwhelmed by a flu? Detroit’s?
> Milan’s?
> Once—only this year. In other words, it’s an extremely rare occurrence.
> If so, the probability that Covid-19 is just like any other flu would be
> close to 1%.
>
> The stats:
>
> 1. How lethal is Covid-19 compared to flu? Here are CNN's stats on the
> annual flu burden in the U.S. since 2010 from a cogent 3-minute interview of
> Dr. Sanjay Gupta:*
> Range of the number of illnesses in a year: 9,000,000-45,000,000
> Range of the number of hospitalizations in a year: 140,000-810,000
> Range of the number of deaths in a year: 12,000-61,000
>
> Conclusion: The lethality of the flu in the U.S. during this period has been
> 0.13%.
>
> 2. The Lancet estimated Covid-19’s lethality is 5.7%, and could be as high
> as 20%.** This is 48-154 times as deadly as flu.
>
> 3. How easily does Covid-19 spread compared to flu? Here are CNN's stats
> from a cogent 2-minute report*** on R0 ("R-naught”, the reproduction number),
> a measure of how many people each patient will infect:
> For Measles at the upper end, R0 = 12-18, so each person with measles will
> infect 12-18 others.
> For Ebola at the lower end, R0 = 1.5-2.5.
> Flu varies year to year, but one study reports its R0 averages 1.2.
> For Covid-19 the CDC reports the R0 = 2.2-2.7.****
>
> Conclusion: Covid-19 is twice as contagious as the flu.
>
> 4. Combining the fact that Covid-19 is 48-158 times as lethal as the flu
> with the fact that Covid-19 is twice as contagious as the flu, Covid-19 is
> 96-316 times as deadly. That’s not "just like the flu!"
>
> 5. These facts justify a response to Covid-19 that has correspondingly
> greater urgency than the flu. That response is especially urgent in the U.S.
> because:
> The world’s population is 7,800,000,000 and the U.S. population is
> 327,000,000.
> According to Johns Hopkins,***** the world has 2,561,044 confirmed cases, or
> 328 cases per million.
> According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. has 823,786 confirmed cases, or 2,519
> cases per million. That is 8 times worse than average for the world.
> According to Johns Hopkins, the world has 176,921 deaths, or 23 deaths per
> million.
> According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. has 44,845 deaths, or 137 deaths per
> million. That is 6 times worse than average for the world.
>
> 6. I’m not a doctor or epidemiologist, and the following statement is less
> rigorous and more simplistic than the above sets of facts, and I could be
> wrong: I’d say the primary ways of dealing with a new virus—until
> vaccinations are available—are Containment, Tests, Contract Tracing, and
> Social Distancing.
> In the U.S., the opportunity for Containment lapsed in February.
> In the U.S., the Tests are way behind the nation's need.
> Harvard researchers estimate “We need to deliver 5 million tests per day by
> early June to deliver a safe social reopening."******
> Harvard researchers estimate the U.S. needs "20 million tests a day (ideally
> by late July) to fully remobilize the economy."
> According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. has tested a total of only 4,155,178
> since testing began.
> According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. tested only 151,627 in the past 24 hours.
> Contact Tracing can’t begin to be effective until the tests are sufficient.
> Until the U.S. ramps up its Tests and Contract Tracing, Social Distancing is
> all that’s left.
>
> These are reasons for my reluctance to watch videos that encourage Americans
> to dismiss social distancing and protest anti-lockdown measures. Until
> Covid-19 is contained by much more tests and contract tracing—especially as
> set forth by Harvard below—such advice will not only multiply our death
> count, but prolong and deepen our economic contraction.
>
> Sincere best wishes,
> Dick
>
>
> * Link:
> https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/02/27/trump-coronavirus-flu-news-conference-sanjay-gupta-newday-vpx.cnn
>
> <https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/02/27/trump-coronavirus-flu-news-conference-sanjay-gupta-newday-vpx.cnn>
> ** Global mortality rates over time using a 14-day delay estimate are shown
> in the figure
> <https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext#fig1>,
> with a curve that levels off to a rate of 5·7% (5·5–5·9), converging with
> the current WHO estimates. Estimates will increase if a longer delay between
> onset of illness and death is considered. A recent time-delay adjusted
> estimation indicates that mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 20%
> in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak. These findings show that the current
> figures might underestimate the potential threat of COVID-19 in symptomatic
> patients. Link:
> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext
>
> <https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext>
> *** Link:
> https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/03/03/how-viruses-spread-lon-md-orig.cnn
>
> <https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/03/03/how-viruses-spread-lon-md-orig.cnn>
> **** Link: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
> <https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article>
> ***** Link:
> https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
>
> <https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6>
> ****** Link:
> https://ethics.harvard.edu/files/center-for-ethics/files/roadmaptopandemicresilience_updated_4.20.20.pdf
>
> <https://ethics.harvard.edu/files/center-for-ethics/files/roadmaptopandemicresilience_updated_4.20.20.pdf>
>
> Very Important Note: Harvard’s "Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience” is amazingly
> credible and strong. It concludes:
>
> We have no time to waste. We can save lives, save our health infrastructure,
> mobilize our economy, protect our civil liberties, and secure the foundations
> for a resilient constitutional democracy. We can be democracy’s bulwark
> against this existential threat if we elevate our ambitions and determine to
> act swiftly and with purpose.
>
> OUR ANCHOR RECOMMENDATION IS THIS:
>
> Between now and August, we should phase in economic mobilization in sync with
> growth in our capacity to provide speedy, sustainable testing, tracing and
> warning, and supported isolation and quarantine programs for mobilized
> sectors of the workforce. We do not propose a modest level of testing,
> tracing, and supported isolation intended to supplement collective quarantine
> as a tool of disease control. We recommend a level of TTSI ambitious enough
> to replace collective quarantine as a tool of disease control.
>
> We need to deliver 5 million tests per day by early June to deliver a safe
> social reopening. This number will need to increase over time (ideally by
> late July) to 20 million a day to fully remobilize the economy. Achieving
> these numbers depends on testing innovation. We acknowledge that even this
> number may not be high enough to protect public health. In that considerably
> less likely eventuality, we will need to scale testing up much further. By
> the time we know if we need to do that, we should be in a better position to
> know how to do it.
>
> [From its Introduction: “(T)he cost of such a testing and tracing, or TTSI,
> program—$50 to 300 billion over two years—is dwarfed by the economic cost of
> continued collective quarantine of $100 to 350 billion a month. Furthermore,
> this calculus neglects the lives being lost every week among workers in
> essential sectors and the vulnerable populations they serve who remain
> exposed to the virus even when stay-at-home advisories are in place. It also
> neglects the fraying of the social fabric created by extended collective
> quarantine.”]
>
> An effective strategy of pandemic resilience requires the following:
>
> • Innovation in testing methodologies.
>
> • A Pandemic Testing Board established by the federal government with strong
> but narrow powers that has the job
> of securing the testing supply and the infrastructure necessary for
> deployment.
>
> • Federal and/or state guidance for state testing programs that accord with
> due process, civil liberties, equal protection, non-discrimination, and
> privacy standards.
>
> • Readiness frameworks to support local health leaders, mayors, tribal
> leaders, and other public officials in establishing test administration
> processes and isolation support resources.
>
> • Organizational innovation at the local level linking cities, counties, and
> health districts, with specifics varying from state to state.
>
> • Federal and state investment in contact tracing personnel, starting with
> an investment in 100,000 personnel (recommendation from JHU Center for Health
> Security).
>
> • Clear mechanisms and norms of governance and enforcement around the design
> and use of peer-to-peer warning apps, including maximal privacy protection,
> availability of open source code for independent and regulatory audit, and
> prohibitions on the use of any data from these apps for commercial purposes,
> ideally achieved through pre-emptive legislation.
>
> • Support for quarantine and isolation in the form of jobs protections and
> material support for time in quarantine and isolation as well as access to
> health care.
>
> • An expanded U.S. Public Health Service Corps and Medical (or Health)
> Reserves Corps (paid service roles), and addition of Health Reserves Corps to
> the National Guard units of each state..
>
> • National Infectious Disease Forecasting Center to modernize disease
> tracking (recommendation from Scott Gottlieb, AEI).
>
> Consensus is emerging about what we need. How to do it is beginning to come
> into view. The time for action has arrived.
>
>
>
>
>
