Quoting Robert Holmes <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: > You want a simulation that shows it's a good idea to > invade Iraq? No problem, I'll interview a bunch of experts, code up > realistic micro-rules and give you a simulation that shows yes, that's a > sensible policy. You want a simulation that shows it's not a good idea to > invade Iraq? No problem, I'll just interview a different set of experts, get > some different micro-rules in there and voila, I've shown invasion is a Bad > Thing.
Two ways to deal with that problem. 1) Data Experts can suggest micro-rules, but then provide examples when those micro- rules were used and other cases where different micro-rules were used, and historical accounts of what happened in each case. In other words do retrodiction on a past similar system that had a known result. If there are no such systems, and no way to change plans or modify a plan (based on early data), then indeed the forecasts are suspect and vulnerable to manipulation. 2) Peer review Not all experts will agree on micro-rules. Get a range of micro-rules from different experts and compute the range of possibility for all of them. Marcus ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
