These guys are so down on scenario planning, they might enjoy http://www.gbn.com, or Peter Schwartz's "The Art of the Long View" from 1991. Regardless of what you think of the technique, the notion that it is only used in current military and security circles is not supportable.
Richard Lowenberg wrote: > Of interest to those on this list posting about 'cities', may be this, > from Paul Miller, aka DJ Spookie, to another list. Excuse his narrow > formatting. > Also of possible interest is Anthony Townsend's (of the Institute for the > Future) <telecom-cities> list and web site: http://cities.iftf.net > rl > > ---------- Forwarded message ---------- > Date: Sun, 5 Aug 2007 21:52:10 -0400 > From: Paul D. Miller <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: [iDC] Global Slum: Digital Narrative and the New Urbanism > > Hey people - this is a rather interesting article > I picked up a little while ago. I'm a big Mike > "City of Quartz" Davis fan, so hey... I just > thought it might provide some food for thought to > several of the threads going on the list. About > half the world's population will be in cities > within the next couple of decades, and the way > this drives alot of issues - immigration, > friction points like water, oil, and of course, > religion - into direct collision, is pretty > intriguing. The original term "ghetto" after all > comes from the venerable Venetian Republic. Look > what that started! The ghetto is a state of mind > I guess... > > Paul > > > Baghdad 2025 > The Pentagon Solution to a Planet of Slums > By Nick Turse > > > > > In our world, the Pentagon and the national > security bureaucracy have largely taken > possession of the future. In an exchange in 2002, > journalist Ron Suskind reported a senior adviser > to President Bush telling him: > > "that guys like me were 'in what we call the > reality-based community,' which he defined as > people who 'believe that solutions emerge from > your judicious study of discernible reality.' I > nodded and murmured something about enlightenment > principles and empiricism. He cut me off. 'That's > not the way the world really works anymore,' he > continued. 'We're an empire now, and when we act, > we create our own reality� We're history's actors > . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just > study what we do.'" > > Slowly, step by step, the present White House has > found itself forced back into at least the > vicinity of the reality-based community. This > week we may, in fact, get to hear one of the last > of this President's great Iraqi fictions. > > The same cannot be said of the Pentagon and the > Intelligence Community (IC). They have settled > into the future and taken it in hand in a > business-like, if somewhat lurid, way. It's the > Pentagon that, in 2004, was already producing > futuristic studies about a globally warmed world > from Hell; it's the Pentagon's blue-skies > research agency, DARPA, that regularly lets > scientists and other thinkers loose to dream > wildly about future possibilities (and then, of > course, to create war-fighting weaponry and other > equipment from those dreams). It's the National > Nuclear Security Administration that is hard at > work dreaming up the nature of our nuclear > arsenal in 2030. > > Typical is the National Intelligence Council, a > "center of strategic thinking within the U.S. > Government, reporting to the Director of Central > Intelligence." In 2005, it was already expending > much effort to create fictional scenarios for > 2010, 2015, and 2020. Someone I know recently > attended workshops the Council's long-range > assessment unit organized, trying to look at the > "threats after next" -- and this time they were > deep into the 2020s. > > The future -- whether imagined as utopian or > dystopian -- was, not so long ago, the province > of dreamers, or actual writers of fiction, or > madmen and cranks, or reformers and journalists, > or even wanna-be war-fighters, but not so > regularly of actual war-fighters, or secretaries > of defense, or presidents. In our time, the > Pentagon and the IC have quite literally become > the fantasy-based community. And yet, strangely > enough, the urge of our top policy-makers (and > allied academics and scientists) to spend their > time in relatively distant futures has been > little explored or considered by others. > > A couple of things can be said about this near > compulsion. First, it's largely confined to the > arts of war. There is no equivalent in our > government when it comes to health care or > education, retirement or housing. No well-funded > government think-tanks and lousy-with-loot > research organizations are ready to let anyone > loose dreaming about our planet's endangered > environment, for instance. The future -- the only > one our government seems truly to care about -- > is most distinctly not good for you. It's a > totally weaponized, grimly dystopian health > hazard for the planet. > > Of course, future fictions are notorious for > their wrong-headedness. All you have to do is > check out old utopian or dystopian fiction, if > you don't believe me. The scandal here is not > that, like most human beings, our soldiers and > spies are sure to be desperately wrong on most > aspects of their future fictions. The scandal is > that we're mortgaging our wealth and our futures, > whatever they may be, to their bloodcurdling, > self-interested, and often absurd fantasies. > > After all, they're running a giant, massively > profitable business operation off fictional > futures, while creating their own armed reality > at our expense. Tomdispatch this month is focused > on the imperial path, the Pentagon, and > militarization. This week two splendid > researchers and writers, Nick Turse and Frida > Berrigan, are considering the futures the > Pentagon has in mind for us. Today, Turse > explores the dreams Pentagon planners are > propounding about future war-fighting in the > burgeoning slums of our planetary mega-cities and > the high-tech gear and weaponry that is being > produced for those dreams. Tuesday, Berrigan will > focus on major American weapons systems being > prepared for a planet that will never exist. > > > PT2 > > Baghdad 2025 > The Pentagon Solution to a Planet of Slums > By Nick Turse > > So you think that American troops, fighting > in the urban maze of Baghdad's huge Shiite slum, > Sadr City, add up to nothing more than a horrible > mistake, an unexpected fiasco? The Pentagon begs > to differ. For years now, U.S. war planners have > believed that guerrilla warfare is the future -- > not against Guevarist focos in the countryside of > some recalcitrant, possibly-oil-rich land, but in > growing urban "jungles" in the vast slum cities > that increasingly dot the planet. > > Take this urban-labyrinth description, for > instance. "Indigenous forces deploying mortars > transported by local vehicles and ready to > rapidly deploy, shoot, and re-cover are common� > [Meanwhile,] an infantry company as part of the > US rapid reaction forces has been tasked with > the� mission to secure several objectives > including the command and control cell within a > 100 square block urban area of the capital�" > > Is it Baghdad? It's certainly possible, since > the passage was written in 2004 with urban > warfare in Iraq's capital already an increasingly > grim reality for Washington's military planners. > But the actual report -- by an official from the > Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency > (DARPA), the Pentagon's blue-skies research > outfit -- focused on cities-of-the-future, of > 2025 to be exact, as part of "a new DARPA thrust > into Urban Combat." > > Fear of urban warfare has long been an aspect > of American military planning. Planners remember > urban killing zones of the past where U.S. forces > sometimes suffered grievous casualties, including > in Hue, South Vietnam's old imperial capital, > where "devastating" losses were incurred by the > Marines in 1968; in the Black-Hawk Down debacle > in Mogadishu, Somalia in 1993, where local > militias inflicted 60% casualties on Army > Rangers; and, of course, in the still-ongoing > catastrophe in Iraq's cities. > > In fact, military planners cannot have been > shocked to find themselves fighting in the > streets and alleyways of Baghdad (as well as > Fallujah, Ramadi, Mosul, Najaf, and Tal Afar) > these last years. Prior to the Bush > administration's 2003 invasion of Iraq, American > newspapers were full of largely military-leaked > or inspired fears that, as Rajiv Chandrasekaran > wrote in the Washington Post in late September > 2002, Saddam Hussein "would respond to a U.S. > invasion by attempting to� draw U.S. forces into > high-risk urban warfare." It was feared that the > taking of "fortress Baghdad," as then Defense > Secretary Donald Rumsfeld termed it, might prove > costly indeed. > > On April 8, 2003, however, the Washington > Post reported that "U.S. Army troops rolled into > Baghdad" and conventional wisdom in and out of > the administration held that "victory" -- the > very name given to the first major base the U.S. > established in Iraq, "Camp Victory" right at the > edge of Baghdad International Airport -- was > close at hand. > > That was then, of course. Last October 8th, > exactly 3 years and 6 months later, the Post > confirmed that the worst pre-invasion fears of > military planners had, in fact, come true - even > if somewhat belatedly and with Saddam Hussein > imprisoned somewhere in the confines of Camp > Victory. The "number of U.S troops wounded in > Iraq," wrote reporter Ann Scott Tyson, "has > surged to its highest monthly level in nearly two > years as American GIs fight block-by-block in > Baghdad." In fact, aside from the huge Sunni > stronghold of Anbar Province, Baghdad had, by > then, become the deadliest location for U.S. > troops in Iraq and urban warfare in a slum city, > involving snipers, IEDs, suicide car bombs, and > ambushes of all sorts had, it seemed, become > America's military fate. > > DARPA's Future War on the Urban Poor > > In his tour de force Planet of Slums, Mike > Davis observes, "the Pentagon's best minds have > dared to venture where most United Nations, World > Bank or State Department types fear to go� [T]hey > now assert that the 'feral, failed cities' of the > Third World --especially their slum outskirts -- > will be the distinctive battlespace of the > twenty-first century." Pentagon war-fighting > doctrine, he notes, "is being reshaped > accordingly to support a low-intensity world war > of unlimited duration against criminalized > segments of the urban poor." > > In fact, this past October the U.S. Army > issued its latest "urban operations" manual. > "Given the global population trends and the > likely strategies and tactics of future threats," > it declares, "Army forces will likely conduct > operations in, around, and over urban areas -- > not as a matter of fate, but as a deliberate > choice linked to national security objectives and > strategy, and at a time, place, and method of the > commander's choosing." Global economic > deprivation and poor housing, the hallmarks of > the urban slum, are, the manual asserts, what > makes "urban areas potential sources of unrest" > and thus, "[i]ncreases the likelihood of the > Army's involvement in stability operations." And > "idle" urban youth (long a target of security > forces in the U.S. homeland), loosed in the > future slum city from the "traditional social > controls" of "village elders and clan leaders" > and prey to manipulation by "nonstate actors" > draw particular concern from the manual's authors. > > Given the assumed need to be in the urban > Iraqs of the future, the question for the U.S. > military becomes a practical one: How to deal > with these uppity children of the third world. > That's where DARPA and other Department of > Defense (DoD) dreamers come in. According to > DARPA's 2004 report, what's needed are "new > systems and technologies for prosecution of urban > warfare� [and] new operational methods for our > soldiers, Marines, and special operations forces." > > Today, DARPA, and other Pentagon ventures > like the Small Business Innovation Research > Program (in which the "DoD funds early-stage R&D > projects at small technology companies") and the > Small Business Technology Transfer Program (where > funding goes to "cooperative R&D projects > involving a small business and a research > institution") are awash in "urban > operations-oriented programs." These go by the > acronym of UO and are designed to support > tomorrow's interventions and occupations. The > Director of DARPA's Information Exploitation > Office put it this way: > > "[They are aimed at] conflicts in high > density urban areas� against enemies having > social and cultural traditions that may be > counter-intuitive to us, and whose actions often > appear to be irrational because we don't > understand their context." > > These programs include a wide range of > efforts to visualize, map out, and spy on the > global mega-favelas that the U.S. has, until now, > largely scorned and neglected. A host of unmanned > vehicles are also being readied for surveillance > and combat in these future "hot-zones," while all > sorts of lethal enhancements are in various > stages of development to enable American troops > to more effectively kick down the doors of the > poor in 2025. > > Urban Planning, Pentagon-style: Spider-Men and Exploding Frisbees > > So let's try to fill out that futuristic > combat scenario in the planet's urban jungles > with a little futuristic detail. Current > UO-oriented systems under development include: > > VisiBuilding: This is a program aimed at > addressing "a pressing need in urban warfare: > seeing inside buildings" by developing technology > that will allow U.S. forces to "determine > building layouts, find anomalous quantities of > materials," and "locate people within the > building." According to Edward Baranoski of > DARPA's Special Projects Office, Visibuilding > will allow "a lot of opportunity to stake out > buildings and really see inside." Think of it as > a high-tech military Peeping Tom system that lets > U.S. troops spy inside foreign homes and make > judgments about whatever they might deem > "anomalous" inside. While VisiBuilding is in > development, troops will have to be content with > "Radar Scope" which allows them to "sense through > 12 inches of concrete to determine if someone is > inside a building." > > Camouflaged Long Endurance Nano Sensors: This > "real-time ultra-wideband radar network� will > detect, classify, localize, and track dismounted > combatants� in urban environments." In > translation, a system of palm-sized, networked > sensors will monitor an area, day in, day out for > weeks at a time. This is what DARPA likes to call > "persistent surveillance." The U.S. military has > headed down this particular surveillance path > before via the ill-fated McNamara Line and > various people-sniffer devices, all of which > proved incapable of differentiating between armed > combatants and civilians in Vietnam era. On this > score, there's little reason to believe anything > will change in future alien urban slums, despite > the increasing technological sophistication of > such systems. > > UrbanScape: This program aims "to make the > foreign city as 'familiar as the soldier's > backyard'" by providing "the warfighters > patrolling an urban environment with an > up-to-date, high resolution model of the urban > terrain that can be viewed, manipulated and > analyzed." Specially-outfitted unmanned aerial > vehicles (UAVs) and Humvees are to gather data > about a target city and then translate it into 3D > visuals. These images will then be available to > troops for use in navigating through and > conducting combat operations in tomorrow's > labyrinthine slums. > > Heterogeneous Urban RSTA Team: With the apt > acronym of HURT, this program will network > together a squadron of small, low-altitude UAVs > sending video footage to hand-held devices for > the immediate use of urban RSTA (reconnaissance, > surveillance, and target acquisition) troops. > This high-tech system is designed, according to > DARPA's director, Dr. Anthony J. Tether, to > provide U.S. forces with "unprecedented awareness > that enables them to shape and control [a] > conflict as it unfolds." It is meant to improve > the odds when American counterinsurgency warriors > take on "warfighters in a MOUT [Military > Operations on Urban Terrain] environment" or any > rag-tag slum militia of tomorrow. If a report by > the Pentagon Channel News is to be believed, HURT > will be operational by 2008. > > The Air Force is, in turn, seeking the > "ability to continuously track, tag, and locate > (TTL) asymmetric threats in urban environments > using sensors across the tiers of airborne > assets." What they envision is a slew of UAVs > loitering long-term above hostile cities and > slums, ready at a moment's notice to spot a > target and begin tracking it. Such "targets" > might be "commercial vehicles" or individuals > identified through a "hyperspectral imaging HSI > video camera" that allows for "the frequency > spectrum of clothes, hair, and skin [to] be > exploited" thus providing "targeting level > accuracy to weapon delivery assets." Think of it > as the high-tech urban hunter-killer system for > the neo-colonial future. While the Air Force sees > this as a way to target and kill "anti-occupation > forces" in Baghdad 2025, they also envision it > doing double duty in the Homeland where, they > say, "law enforcement require[s] urban target > tracking." > > Nano Air Vehicle: Imagine a world in which > mechanical gnats infest a city, buzzing through > people's homes, intruding on their lives, filming > whatever they choose with tiny cameras and > transmitting the data back to U.S. troops. This > program aims to "develop and demonstrate an > extremely small (less than 7.5 cm), > ultra-lightweight (less than 10 grams) air > vehicle system� to provide the warfighter with > unprecedented capability for urban mission > operations." > > Additionally, there's the Multi Dimensional > Mobility Robot (MDMR), which "will traverse > complex urban terrain"; the Micro Air Vehicle > (MAV) a small, vertical take-off and landing UAV > that will be "employable in a variety of > warfighting environments" including "urban > areas"; and the intriguing but shadowy Urban > Hopping Robots program whose project manager, Dr. > Michael Obal, declined to answer Tomdispatch's > inquiries about the project. Jan R. Walker of > DARPA's External Relations office told > Tomdispatch in an email that there is "very > limited information available on the Urban > Hopping Robots program," but suggested that the > "program is developing a semi-autonomous hybrid > hopping/articulated wheeled robotic platform that > could adapt to the urban environment in real-time > and provide the delivery of small payloads to any > point of the urban jungle while remaining > lightweight, small to minimize the burden on the > soldier." The proposed hopping robot, she noted, > "would be truly multi-functional in that it will > negotiate all aspects of the urban battlefield to > deliver payloads to non-line-of-sight areas with > precision." > > Z-Man: Copyright infringement was probably > the only thing that stopped this DARPA program > from being called the "Spiderman Project." > Basically, Z-Man seeks to "develop climbing aids > that will enable an individual soldier to scale > vertical walls constructed of typical building > materials without the need for ropes or ladders." > The Pentagon is aiming to find methods similar to > those employed by "geckos, spiders, and small > animals [to] scale vertical surfaces, that is, by > using unique biological material systems that > enable controllable adhesion." This weaponized > wall-crawler, assumedly capable of creeping into > some 2025 apartment window in Baghdad, Beruit, or > Kerachi "carrying a combat load," definitely is > not meant to be your friendly neighborhood > Spiderman. > > Modular Disc-Wing (Frisbee) Urban Cruise > Munition: Yes, you read it right, the Air Force > has green-lighted Triton Systems, Inc. to create > "a MEFP [Multiple Explosively Formed > Penetrator]-armed Lethal Frisbee UAV." That is, a > flying disk that will "locate defiladed > combatants in complex urban terrain" and > annihilate them using a bunker-buster warhead. > Unlike your run-of-the mill Wham-O, however, this > "frisbee" will probably be thrown using a device > resembling a skeet launcher. > > Close Combat Lethal Recon This deadly, > loitering explosive expressively for use in urban > landscapes will expand a soldier's killing zone > by reaching "over and around buildings, onto > rooftops, and into open building portals." Think > of it as a smart grenade or, according to DARPA > Director Tether, "a tube-launched cruise munition > that can be used by a dismounted infantryman in > an urban area to attack a target, perhaps spotted > by a UAV, which is beyond his line of sight. It's > like a small mortar round with a grenade-size > explosive in it. A fiber-optic line unreels from > its back end and provides the data link that > allows the soldier to see the video from the > munition's camera and to fly it into the target." > > Training for Tomorrow's Urban Occupations > > Just a cursory glance at last year's Pentagon > expenditures makes clear the heavy emphasis on > training the men and women who are slated to use > DARPA's high-tech urban weapons against > slum-dwellers in the coming years. In March 2006, > the Army signed a nearly $25 million contract > "for construction of a combined arms collective > training facility/urban assault complex" at Fort > Carson, Colorado. In August, the Navy inked an > $18.5 million deal for the "design and > construction of a combined arms military > operations in urban terrain facility" at > Twenty-nine Palms, California. In September, the > Army approved a contract for the construction of > an Urban Assault Course at Fort Jackson, South > Carolina. In November, the Navy awarded a > $12,500,000 contract for construction of a > "Special Operations Force Military Operations on > Urban Terrain Training Complex" at San Clemente > Island, California. And in December 2006, the > Army agreed to pay $11,838,998 for a new > "Military Operations Urban Terrain Facility" for > Fort Irwin, California. > > The Pentagon has even exported its urban > warfare training centers to sites closer to > tomorrow's prospective targets, such as the > Army's custom-made MOUT facilities at Bagram Air > Base, Afghanistan and at Camp Buehring, Kuwait. > In November 2006, the Army awarded General > Dynamics a $17 million contract to construct an > urban combat training site as part of the King > Abdullah II Special Operations Training Center in > Jordan -- a facility which will, according to an > Army spokesman, be available to "all friendly > nations that support the War on Terror." > > American Terminators vs. Drug-Dealing Serial-Killer Guerillas > > As both the high-tech programs and the > proliferating training facilities suggest, the > Pentagon views the foreign slum city of tomorrow > as a dystopian nightmare and the bloody > battlespace to be feared and controlled in the > coming decades. Beyond this, the Pentagon > exhibits a palpable fear of urban disorder of any > sort. In response, it is creating its own > Hollywood-style solutions to its Hollywood-esque > Escape From New > York-meets-Bladerunner-meets-Zulu-meets-Robocop > vision of the Third World city to come. > > For example, the Navy/Marine Corps recently > launched a program seeking to develop algorithms > to predict the criminality of a given building or > neighborhood. The project, titled "Finding > Repetitive Crime Supporting Structures," defines > cities as nothing more than a collection of > "urban clutter [that] affords considerable > concealment for the actors that we must capture." > The "hostile behavior bad actors," as the program > terms them, are defined not just as "terrorists," > today's favorite catch-all boogiemen, but as a > panoply of nightmare archetypes: "insurgents, > serial killers, drug dealers, etc." For its part, > the Army's recently revised "Urban Operations" > manual offers an even more extensive list of > "persistent and evolving urban threats," > including regional conventional military forces, > paramilitary forces, guerrillas, and insurgents > as well as terrorists, criminal groups, and angry > crowds. In fact, even the threat of computer > "hackers" are mentioned. > > To do battle in dystopian mega-cities where > serial killers, druglords, hackers, and urban > guerillas may have joined forces, DARPA is intent > on developing a program worthy of a > direct-to-video sci-fi thriller. In a recent > solicitation, it offered a vision of a > human-robot military SWAT team busting down doors > in a favela of the future. It reads: > > "The challenge is to create a system > demonstrating the use of multiple robots with one > or more humans on a highly constrained tactical > maneuver� One example of such a maneuver is the > through-the-door procedure often used by police > and soldiers to enter an urban dwelling� [where] > one kicks in the door then pulls back so another > can enter low and move left, followed by another > who enters high and moves right, etc. In this > project the teams will consist of robot platforms > working with one or more human teammates as a > cohesive unit. The robots should be under > autonomous control rather than > remote/teleoperated." > > This scenario of tomorrow already seems well > launched. The military has, in fact, been > obsessed with the idea of sending to war > heavily-armed, tele-operated robots - such as the > Special Weapons Observation Reconnaissance > Detection System, or SWORDS Talon, a small, > all-terrain tracked vehicle, used by the U.S. > military since 2000, that can be outfitted with > M240 or M249 machine guns, Barrett 50-caliber > rifles, 40 mm grenade launchers, and anti-tank > rocket launchers. > > Pentagon to Global Cities: Drop Dead > > This past fall, the Pentagon's U.S. Joint > Forces Command engaged in a $25 million, 35-day, > computer-based simulation exercise involving more > than 1,400 soldiers, marines, airmen, and > sailors. A year in the making, "Urban Resolve > 2015" had one simple goal -- to test concepts for > future "combat in cities" -- and, not > surprisingly, it was set in Baghdad 2015. An > article put out by the Pentagon's American Forces > Press Service was quick to say, however, that the > virtual exercise really could be taking place in > "any urban environment." And the reason why was > clear in the words of Dave Ozolek, the executive > director of the Joint Futures Lab at the Joint > Forces Command. Urban zones, he said, are "where > the fight is, that's where the enemy is, that['s] > where the center of gravity for the whole > operation is." > > While the Joint Forces Command may already be > war-gaming the 2015 Battle for Baghdad, right now > it looks like the U.S. military will have trouble > hanging on there for even a couple of more years. > Still, if present plans become reality, odds are > U.S. military planners will be attempting to > occupy some city, in some fashion, come 2015 and > 2025. In the future, as the Army's new Urban > Operations Manual puts it, "every Soldier -- > regardless of branch or military occupational > specialty -- must be committed and prepared to > close with and kill or capture threat forces in > an urban environment." > > The way the Pentagon seems to envision the > future, its human-robot expeditionary forces will > spend increasing amounts of time dropping in on > Third World super-slums armed not only with heavy > weaponry, but also with gadgets galore. They will > be able to read instant 3D maps of the buildings > they're approaching and watch real-time video of > the most intimate activities in the urban zone > they've been tasked to subdue. > > As tiny flying UAVs blanket an impoverished > neighborhood, a squad of special-ops Spidermen > and Geko warriors will crawl and slither up > apartment-building walls, while teams of robots > are simultaneously hopping through first floor > windows, and Terminator-Human teams are kicking > down front doors to capture an enemy drug > kingpin. Nearby "angry crowds" of > politically-minded youth will be engaged by > heavily-armed tele-operated SWORDS Talon robots, > while a few up-armored cyborg troops, at a safe > distance, fire their loitering smart grenades at > a gathering crowd of armed slum-dwellers who > believe themselves well hidden and protected in > nearby alleyways. > > Of course, no matter the fantasies of > Pentagon scientists and planners, such futuristic > solutions will not replace U.S. reliance on > massive firepower, even in labyrinthine cities, > as was true with Tokyo during World War II, > Pyongyang during the Korean War, Ben Tre in > Vietnam, and the Sunni city of Fallujah during > the current war in Iraq. As Major Tim Karcher, > the operations officer for the Army's Task Force > 2-7 Cavalry, recalled of the American assault on > Fallujah in November 2004, "We sat there for a > good six or seven hours�watching� this death and > destruction rain down on the city, from AC-130 > [gunship]s to any kind of fast-moving aircraft, > 155 [millimeter] howitzers. You name it, > everybody was getting in the mix." > > Given the military's fear of sending large > numbers of American troops into the enemy- > friendly landscape of the urban mega-slum, where > significant casualties are almost unavoidable, > this form of Pentagon-preferred urban renewal is > unlikely to be replaced, no matter what > technologies come down the pike. > > The Military and the Metropolis > > Cities are obviously on the Pentagon's hit > list - today, it's Baghdad; tomorrow 2015 or > 2025, if military planners are right, it could be > Accra, Bogot�, Dhaka, Karachi, Kinshasa, Lagos, > Mogadishu or even a perenial favorite, Port au > Prince. Regardless of the exact locale, Pentagon > strategists looking into the DARPA crystal ball > of the future have determined that urban slums > will be a crucial battleground, and slum-dwellers > a crucial enemy. > > Yet the outlook for the U.S. military is not > upbeat -- even with high-tech exploding frisbees, > spider-man suits, terminator-like robots, and > urban training facilities galore coming on line. > In the wars begun since the U.S. high command > moved into its own self-described virtual "city" > -- the Pentagon -- a distinct inability to > decisively defeat any but its weakest foes has > been in evidence. > > Korea in the early 1950s, Vietnam in the > 1960s and 70s, Lebanon in the early 1980s, > Somalia in the early 1990s were all failures. > More recently, victory in Afghanistan has proved > worse than elusive and a ragtag insurgency in > Iraq has fought the Pentagon's technological > dominance and superior firepower to a standstill. > While able to cause massive casualties and > tremendous destruction, the Pentagon war machine > has proven remarkably ineffectual when it comes > to achieving actual victory. > > Now, the Pentagon has decided to prepare for > a fight with a restless, oppressed population of > slum-dwellers one billion strong and growing at > an estimated rate of 25 million people per year. > To take on even lone outposts in this multitude > -- like any of the 400 cities of over 1 million > people that exist today or the 150 more estimated > to be in existence by 2015 -- is a fool's errand, > a recipe for both carnage and quagmire. > > Nick Turse is the associate editor and > research director of Tomdispatch.com. He has > written for the Los Angeles Times, the San > Francisco Chronicle, the Nation, the Village > Voice, and regularly for Tomdispatch. > > Copyright 2007 Nick Turse > _______________________________________________ > iDC -- mailing list of the Institute for Distributed Creativity > (distributedcreativity.org) > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > https://mailman.thing.net/mailman/listinfo/idc > > List Archive: > http://mailman.thing.net/pipermail/idc/ > > iDC Photo Stream: > http://www.flickr.com/photos/tags/idcnetwork/ > > RSS feed: > http://rss.gmane.org/gmane.culture.media.idc > > iDC Chat on Facebook: > http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=2457237647 > > Share relevant URLs on Del.icio.us by adding the tag iDCref > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
