You really have to wonder in a complexity science forum why taking on endless multiplying complications, as a standard planning concept, would not be quickly brought into question. The opening statement in on that CAS webpage is:
Forget the financial crisis, the true global economic crisis will come in the next ten years. The end of cheap oil and the beginning of climate change are the first warning signs. We wont be able to stop increasing oil prices in the long term. And we wont be able to stop climate change and global warming. That's only true if the phrase "true global economic crisis" assumes we don't realize the error in endlessly multiplying the size and complexity of the system. Even without any physical resource limits of any kind the compounding complexity of continual growth makes any system completely unmanageable. You get learning demands that exceed the possible range of learning responses for the parts not changing. We're supposed to have learned by seeing the exploding complexity of the financial schemes as the core problem in the recent collapse. The central cause of that complexity was that they were built to maintain financial system growth in the absence of similar physical system growth. We should learn from experience. The problem of collapse is not with the pins that prick our bubbles but the pumps that pump them to the point of bursting. Phil Henshaw > -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On > Behalf Of Jochen Fromm > Sent: Sunday, October 26, 2008 10:25 AM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group > Subject: [FRIAM] The true crisis is still to come > > Did you know that 8 out of 10 from the biggest > companies of the world live from oil or oil-consuming > products? I think the true crisis is still to come, see > > http://blog.cas-group.net/2008/10/the-true-crisis-is-still-to-come/ > > -J. > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
