Just some figures from a person I am arguing with
about present trends... Eva
>
> Fact: Every decade since WWII, the number of famine victims have been
> steadily and surely decreasing.
>
> A friend sent me a Swedish "State of the World" report for 1994 ("Laget i
> Varlden 1994"). It gives the following figures for undernourishment in
> *developing countries*:
>
> Population % Number of people
> 1969-71 36 % 941 million
> 1988-90 20 % 781 million
>
> If this isn't a significant and dramatic improvement, it's hard to imagine
> what is.
>
> If you feel for it, you can look at a large number of statistical tables,
> all supporting the same fact: in every important way, life is improving and
> has been improving for practically all people on this planet.
>
> For health, this situation should be even more obvious for everyone. After
> all, why do you think we have a dramatic population increase?
>
> Let me refer to "The World Health Report 1998". In the first chapter, the
> "Message from the Director-General" we read the following:
>
> "Despite being threatened by two devastating world wars in the first half of
> this century, and by many other conflicts and catastrophes in the second,
> humanity has, in general, not merely survived; it has thrived. Today, at
> least 120 countries (total population above 5 billion) have a life
> expectancy at birth of more than 60 years; the global average is 66 years
> compared to only 48 years in 1955; it is projected to reach 73 years in
> 2025"
>
> The report then goes on to emphasize the importance of health expectancy
> instead of life expectancy. Take a look at this next statement:
>
> "Based on a review of health trends in the past 50 years, it finds that
> overall, remarkable improvements in health have been due to socioeconomic
> development, the wider provision of safe water, sanitation facilities and
> personal hygiene, and the establishment and expansion of national health
> services.
>
> Major infectious diseases, such as poliomyelitis, leprosy, guinea-worm
> disease, Chagas disease and river blindness, are steadily being defeated.
> There have been spectacular advances in the development of vaccines and
> medicines, and countless other innovations in the investigation, diagnosis
> and treatment of illness, in the reduction of disability and in
> rehabilitation."
>
> About child mortality:
>
> "Spectacular progress in reducing under-5 mortality achieved in the past few
> decades is projected to continue, and could even accelerate. There were
> about 11 million deaths among children under 5 in 1995 compared to 21
> million in 1955; there will only be 5 million deaths in 2025."
>
> The really scary thing is that everything people had to do to totally reject
> the insane idea that things are getting worse is looking at some basic
> evidence. In many situations in life, evidence is ambiguous. In this case,
> *all* available evidence points in the same direction.
>
> So why is this the opposite of what many (perhaps most) people believe?
>
> I fear that this is a part of our christianized culture: a irrational,
> apocalyptic belief that the world is going to hell in a handbucket, and this
> belief is completely independent from actual evidence. What does it take to
> convice wanna-be fatalists?
>
> --
> - Jan
Eva,
>I don't go on about the "improvements" of the last 50 years,
>as none of seems to have the time to supply data.
>My impression from my past sources is obviously different
>from yours
Here we go about intuition again.
I notice you are talking much about famine. Ok, let's look at changes in
number of famine victims.
Fact: Every decade since WWII, the number of famine victims have been
steadily and surely decreasing.
A friend sent me a Swedish "State of the World" report for 1994 ("Laget i
Varlden 1994"). It gives the following figures for undernourishment in
*developing countries*:
Population % Number of people
1969-71 36 % 941 million
1988-90 20 % 781 million
If this isn't a significant and dramatic improvement, it's hard to imagine
what is.
If you feel for it, you can look at a large number of statistical tables,
all supporting the same fact: in every important way, life is improving and
has been improving for practically all people on this planet.
For health, this situation should be even more obvious for everyone. After
all, why do you think we have a dramatic population increase?
Let me refer to "The World Health Report 1998". In the first chapter, the
"Message from the Director-General" we read the following:
"Despite being threatened by two devastating world wars in the first half of
this century, and by many other conflicts and catastrophes in the second,
humanity has, in general, not merely survived; it has thrived. Today, at
least 120 countries (total population above 5 billion) have a life
expectancy at birth of more than 60 years; the global average is 66 years
compared to only 48 years in 1955; it is projected to reach 73 years in
2025"
The report then goes on to emphasize the importance of health expectancy
instead of life expectancy. Take a look at this next statement:
"Based on a review of health trends in the past 50 years, it finds that
overall, remarkable improvements in health have been due to socioeconomic
development, the wider provision of safe water, sanitation facilities and
personal hygiene, and the establishment and expansion of national health
services.
Major infectious diseases, such as poliomyelitis, leprosy, guinea-worm
disease, Chagas disease and river blindness, are steadily being defeated.
There have been spectacular advances in the development of vaccines and
medicines, and countless other innovations in the investigation, diagnosis
and treatment of illness, in the reduction of disability and in
rehabilitation."
About child mortality:
"Spectacular progress in reducing under-5 mortality achieved in the past few
decades is projected to continue, and could even accelerate. There were
about 11 million deaths among children under 5 in 1995 compared to 21
million in 1955; there will only be 5 million deaths in 2025."
The really scary thing is that everything people had to do to totally reject
the insane idea that things are getting worse is looking at some basic
evidence. In many situations in life, evidence is ambiguous. In this case,
*all* available evidence points in the same direction.
So why is this the opposite of what many (perhaps most) people believe?
I fear that this is a part of our christianized culture: a irrational,
apocalyptic belief that the world is going to hell in a handbucket, and this
belief is completely independent from actual evidence. What does it take to
convice wanna-be fatalists?
--
- Jan
