Hi Steve
Considering the population doubling rate of 35 years and that leveling only
appears possible in populations who have continuously maintained a certain
level of well being. Adequate food, water, shelter and health care. Will
population expansion stop with that third generation who removed from the
experiences of premature death who will then choose to abandon earlier
customs of high birth rate practices maintained to insure genetic
continuance.
It has been my understanding that the modern population represents only 20
to 25% of global populoation. This leaves me to wonder at this developing
population. Surely some have not even reached the necessary level of
well-being to even begin to remove that first generation from the
experiences of premature death. But surely there are percentages of the
population who have and are in the 2nd and 3rd generation development
stages.
It is a bleak outlook, population expansion. I suspect even under the best
circumstances population will double atleast twice more form 6 billion to12
to 24 billion in the next 70 years. Modern mans resource consumption is
another story. continueing as we are resource exhaustion will occur long
before an equality can ever be achieved.
Of course resource exhaustion will only deplete and diminish well-being to
the point of renewing premature deaths and it seems every thing will go down
hill from there.
So this is the big fear for me atleast.
My interest in sustainability issues started with ecology but has widened
considerably since then. To me at least Life is the most precious thing.
Maintaining life processes seems all important. Respecting the continuance
of life processes is an essential element. Something mankind has yet to
recon with. Personaly I think mankind will some how survive to be that last
living thing. Yet I am sure that will be a very lonely existance.
We are however a long ways away from that cenario. But then perhaps we are
closer than we think.
Strangely enough I have risen to the conclusion that Transport processes are
possibly that one area that posseses the greatest influence on the very
abiliites of our society.
Seemingly ecological specie losses are already occuring at an alarming rate.
Time appears to be a most precious thing. The sooner we can establish a
sustainable society, the greater will be thier own attainanble level of
well-being. Mans own attainable level of well-being appears at this time to
be at great risk both real and potential.
The transport thing I think is remarkable. It promises by far to be the
fastest way to bring mankind to that level of well-being that inturn will
level its own population expansion. This is not to say by any means that it
is the only thing that needs to be changed. Obviously there is much that
will need to be accomplished if indeed we ever expect to finally achieve
mans most primal goal of "equality for all". It is difficult to believe how
far we are from achieving that goal.
Transport plays such a significant roll in society's abilities its difficult
to imagine how changing transport would influence how things and events
would come about.
I have learned that transports influences are truly enormous. Transport
efficiency seems to litiraly determine what is and what is not possible.
Most do not realize it but our whole life and everything we do is almost
entirely due to transport abilities. If you don't think transport is
important and that you could live just as well with out it, then just for a
moment pretend to be with out any thing that has been delivered to you.
In knowing that Transport plays such a sinificant role in humanities
well-being, I could not resist wanting to take a closer look at this most
important process. Perhaps it could be improved and that would help
sustainablity efforts.
There is a lot of things about transport that are left to be desired.
Safety, speed, energy consumption, and pollution just to name a few. There
is one thing however that I noticed that transport did that I thought was
unforgivable. It fragments habitat. Now it may not seem like a big deal but
after reviewing ecological continuality. The effects of fragmentaded habitat
are disastrous for other species. Seems they have evolved with the ability
to seek foodwater, and shelter with out the manmade boundaries roads and
highways represent. Many species need to secure survival elements on a daily
basis others must respond to seasonal changes. Ultimately migration is a
must ability if indeed they are to maintain themselves. Deprived of this
ability to mobilize Many will eventually cease to cope under the extremes
they have previously been able to escape.
I got the notion that if transport could be elevated than it would not
represent a fragmentary threat. Elevating todays vehicular transport however
has proved to be a most daunting idea. The costs of elevating transport is
considerable to say the least.
Much less the concerns over fragmentated habitat are not nearly sufficient
to warrent such a large change in infrastructure investment. Suspect it will
take about 20 times more capital to build such an elevated system.
Not wanting to give up just yet I began to visualize perhaps such an
increase in structure outlay could be justified in other economic benefits.
>From here I emerged myself in a world of discovering the economics of
transport processes. Things like structure outlay versus traffic flow rates,
safety, policing, maintenance, and even life spans. Not to surprising
transport does have alot of these things that could be substantially
improved. Upon review of present transport processes. Namely vehicular. The
infrastructure has changed very little in the last few decades. Simply flat
surfaces upon which vehicles are operated. Remarkably they are very short
lived. 7 to 10 years at best. The short life spans and thier lack of
utilizing the current technologies promises that there is a large potential
for great efficiencies to be made. Perhaps I thought enough to substantiate
the greater cost needed to elevate.
Not being a transport engineer or architect I began to explore sites related
to such design efforts, in the hopes perhaps such a design was in the works.
Amazingly with a little searching and some suggestions from others Some
wonderfull sights began to unfold. There do appear to be a number of sites
dedicated to just that endeavor. Elevated transport systems just crying to
be recognized as the next step in mans evolution in transport. Many of them
are promising.
Plan to spend some time at jerry's site as the avenues to other related
sites are many and it will take a good deal of time just to grasp the very
variety of concepts offered. The site is constantly up dated too. Enjoy!
- Jerry Schneider -
- Home page: http://faculty.washington.edu/~jbs
- Innovative Transportation Technologies:
http://faculty.washington.edu/~jbs/itrans
- Transit-Focused Development: http://www.peak.org/~jbs
To my own dismay non of the transport systems have cared to accomodate
presentday vehicles. They claim rightfully to some extent that accomodating
the weight and bulk of current vehicles substantially reduces the abilities
and efficiencies each transport system has aquired in its design. The market
these designers are after is mass transit. The light rail currently in use
is expensive and inconvenient and represents a good leverage both
economically and socially for promoting thier designs. Surprisingly no one
seems interested in replacing roads and highways with a new efficient
elevated infrastructure. This puzzles me. The nations economy rests on its
efficiency and it seems it could be accomplished at half present costs, not
to mention ecologically sound.
PLEASE visit
my "Sustainable Society" web page http://members.delphi.com/geeoh
or join in the conversation at my "Sustainable Development Forum"
http://forums.delphi.com/m/mydelphi/mydelphi.asp?sigdir=SustainableDev
Voice your concerns, observations, and insights. Be the Sapient Being you
are!
sapient 1 full of knowledge; wise; sagacious; discerning 2 of or
relating to the existing human species (Homo sapiens )
George [EMAIL PROTECTED]
American Tree Services Panama City, Fl. 32401-2425
-----Original Message-----
From: Steve Kurtz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: ECOL-ECON <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; futurework
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Saturday, September 04, 1999 7:09 PM
Subject: Worldwatch report on Unemployment
>Greetings,
>
>I've presented my (similiar) views on this linkage for the three years
>I've been on-line, and received little response. With the limits of
>waste sinks and non-renewable resources, growth &/or development (even
>with better technology and social policy) are proving incapable of
>providing solutions. Or so it seems to me.
>
>Steve
>
>
>[Note: This brief is the second in a series of reports on global
>population
>issues leading up to the Day of 6 Billion, October 12, 1999. Additional
>information and resources can be found at
>http://www.worldwatch.org/alerts/pop2.html]
>
>
>UNEMPLOYMENT CLIMBING AS WORLD APPROACHES 6 BILLION
>Brian Halweil and Lester R. Brown
>
>As global population rushes toward 6 billion-and beyond-national
>governments
>face the daunting task of creating nearly 30 million additional jobs
>each year
>for the next fifty years. Although Americans will celebrate Labor Day on
>Monday,
>September 6 with unemployment at a near record low, unemployment in the
>rest of
>the world is at an all-time high.
>
>Failure to absorb the record number of new job seekers could fuel
>political
>instability as rising numbers of jobless youth strain the social fabric.
>In the
>absence of an accelerated effort to slow population growth in the years
>ahead,
>unemployment could soar to unmanageable levels.
>
>Since mid-century, the world's labor force-those between the ages of 15
>and 65
>seeking work-has expanded from 1.2 billion people in 1950 to nearly 3
>billion in
>1999. Over the same period, the world's total population surged from 2.5
>to 6
>billion.
>
>Unfortunately, the number of new jobs has not kept pace with the
>increasing
>number of job seekers. The United Nations International Labor
>Organization (ILO)
>estimates that over 1 billion people, about one third of the global work
>force,
>are unemployed or underemployed (involuntarily working substantially
>less than
>full time, or earning less than a living wage). Persistent high levels
>of
>unemployment in many European nations with stable populations indicate
>the
>policy challenges of providing jobs even without rapid population
>growth.
>
>If population increases remain on the current trajectory, the global
>work force
>will swell from 3 billion to nearly 4.5 billion by 2050. Of these 1.5
>billion
>new job seekers, almost all will live in developing nations, where rapid
>population growth translates into intense pressure on job markets.
>Already
>struggling to satisfy basic needs, such as access to clean water and
>sanitation,
>many of these countries will be hard-pressed to create the required
>jobs. In the
>world's 50 poorest nations, the work force will surge some 235 percent
>by 2050.
>
>The interaction between population growth and jobs is most acute in
>nations with
>young populations. Peru, Mexico, Indonesia, Zambia, and other nations
>with more
>than half of their population below the age of 25 will feel the burden
>of this
>labor flood. In the Middle East and Africa, 40 percent of the population
>is
>under the age of 15.
>
>Nations are straining to educate and train rapidly growing numbers of
>young
>people in marketable skills for the global workplace. But even so, many
>young
>people are facing dismal job prospects. Worldwide, the ILO estimates
>that
>currently there are 60 million people between the ages of 15 and 24 who
>are in
>search of work but cannot find it. And in most societies, unemployment
>for those
>under 25 is substantially higher than for older people.
>
>Nowhere is the employment challenge greater than in Africa, where 40
>percent of
>the population lives in absolute poverty and where underemployment is
>already
>the norm. Although 9 million people entered the sub-Saharan work force
>in 1999,
>in just two decades this resource-scarce region will have to absorb more
>than 16
>million new entrants each year. Over the next half-century, Nigeria's
>labor
>force is projected to nearly triple, and Ethiopia's to nearly quadruple.
>
>As a result of unprecedented population growth and increasing acceptance
>of
>female participation in the work force, the number of people seeking
>work in the
>Middle East and North Africa, a region plagued by double-digit
>unemployment
>rates, will double in the next 50 years. Rising numbers of jobless young
>people
>will add to existing political tensions in the region. In Algeria, a
>rapidly
>growing country already wrapped in turmoil, 22 percent of the work force
>is
>unemployed.
>
>Asia will also see phenomenal increases in the numbers seeking work. For
>example, Pakistan's work force is projected to grow from 72 million in
>1999 to
>199 million by 2050. Over the next 25 years, India will add nearly 10
>million to
>its work force each year-a cumulative addition nearly as great as the
>current US
>population. Having slowed its population growth dramatically, larger
>China is
>adding only 6 million workers annually. Even so, the rush of migrants to
>China's
>coastal cities and massive layoffs from state-run operations are
>compounding
>work shortages.
>
>The population seeking work in the industrial world will actually
>decline
>slightly over the coming decades, as couples are choosing to have
>smaller
>families and as the population ages. However, in the United States, one
>of the
>few industrial nations where population continues to swell, the work
>force will
>grow from 139 million in 1999 to 162 million in 2050, adding roughly
>half a
>million job seekers each year.
>
>In a situation of labor surplus, the quality of jobs may suffer, for
>workers
>will settle for lower wages, longer hours, fewer benefits, and less
>control over
>work activities. As global economic integration proceeds, surplus labor
>anywhere
>can weaken labor's bargaining power everywhere.
>
>Rapid technological developments and globalization have also decreased
>demand
>for some kinds of labor. The increasing mechanization of agriculture has
>reduced
>labor needs on the farm-where most of the world still derives its food
>and
>income-while the flood of cheap food imports as economies liberalize can
>undermine rural livelihoods altogether.
>
>Historically, surplus farmland served as a source of employment for
>growing
>populations, as new land could be brought under the plow to generate
>work,
>income, and sustenance. However, with the frontiers of agricultural
>expansion
>largely gone by 1950, global cropland per person has dropped by half
>since then.
>Moreover, the global exodus of job seekers from the countryside fuels
>the
>already high unemployment in many cities. Creating jobs in an urban
>world will
>require massive investment to accelerate employment growth in the
>industrial and
>service sectors.
>
>In many regions, recent employment creation has come at the expense of
>job
>quality. Some 80 to 90 percent of new jobs in Latin America are in the
>informal
>sector-the underbelly of the economy characterized by low wages, poor
>working
>conditions, and little job security. The informal sector also accounts
>for 60
>percent of employment in urban Africa.
>
>As capital becomes increasingly mobile, corporations are shifting new
>investments to developing countries with their large pool of low cost
>labor.
>Viewed as a threat to workers in the industrial world, this shifting
>capital has
>helped create jobs in developing countries. China has been among the
>most
>successful nations in attracting such foreign capital. A combination of
>high
>domestic savings, record inflows of investment capital, and slow
>population
>growth created a record number of jobs and boosted incomes four-fold
>from 1980
>to 1998.
>
>Employment is the key to obtaining food, housing, health services, and
>education, in addition to providing self-respect and self-fulfillment.
>But in
>scores of countries rapid population growth is bringing greater
>unemployment,
>more people living in poverty, and more political instability.
>
>Traditionally, governments have relied on economic policy to create
>jobs, but
>now those facing continued rapid population growth will need to rely on
>population policy as well. Achieving full employment is inseparably
>linked to
>efforts to stabilize population. Enhanced domestic and international
>support for
>family planning services, reproductive health care, the education of
>young women
>and men, and other efforts to stabilize population will yield the dual
>benefits
>of better living conditions and brighter job prospects in the next
>century.
>-END-
>
