On Fri, 03 Oct 2003, Keith Hudson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> It is a fact that we are becoming a technological
>society requiring an increasing proportion of highly intelligent workers.
>It is also a fact that fertility rates in developed countries are now
>heading towards non-replacement levels -- that is, below 2.2 children per
>family.
[...]
>
>So something will have to be done if populations in both developed or
>developing countries are to survive in a century or two from now, never
>mind whether they'll be able to cope with advancing technologies. Italy's
>population, for example, with a fertility rate of 1.1 children per family
>is heading for total extinction within four or five generations. All this
>will require a great deal of study.
Well, I'm sort of baffled by all this. We have a planet with over
six billion humans, living in an environment that has been suggested
to only have the capacity to sustainably sink the effluent of two
billion. People have been wringing their hands about the profligate
breeding which has led to this situation for over forty years. Now,
suddenly the message is getting through, and people are curbing their
fecundity, and you immediately start talking about them declining
to extinction. How about simply considering that these are rational
individuals who understand the concept of overpopulation and choose
to not contribute to it, but actively correct for it, having looked
around and understood that every extra body means an incremental
decline in the quality of life for everyone, including themselves.
It is about as likely that people will population-limit themselves
to extinction as it was that they would breed themselves til they
were stacked like cordwood. I suggest they are actively seeking
a sensible population level, and are doing it much better than
commentators have given them credit for. The optimum sustainable
population of europe is probably around 1/3 to 1/2 its current
level, and when they reach that level, population will stabilize.
As far as IQ in terms of the quality of the gene pool, I can't
say I'm particularly concerned. I would expect we will soon come
to understand the genetic components of intelligence, and by the
time we've come to the determination of whether they are significant
enough to be a concern, we will also have the technology and will
to correct for them in the germ line. Until that time, I don't think
the situation will degrade enough to matter. I expect it will all work
out quite well.
-Pete Vincent
_______________________________________________
Futurework mailing list
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
