Continuation of Bushwatches:
At 12:17 18/11/2003 -0500, you wrote:
Keith, I will be very interested in your observations of Blair and Bush microbehaviors while the latter is there. ----snip ----->
1. Telescopic camera shot of him waving goodbye in the US: He would be relatively unguarded in this situation -- the cameras probably being at least a hundred yards away, I presume. Bush and wife ascend airplane steps and pause at the top. Two very brief smiles to individuals standing down below him on either side of steps (Condee and Powell I'd guess). But as he looks straight towards (distant) camera/us he is a distinctly unhappy bunny. No doubt about that. This is not the gravitas of a president, but simply someone in a bad mood. Very quickly herds his wife into the plane.
2. Inspecting the troops: In what I thought was an odd way when inspecting the Royal Household Guard , Bush walked down the line without once looking at the guardsmen. Usually during such inspections -- as you will know -- the VIP will stop every now and again and either just inspect one of the soldiers or have a brief chat with him and then on to another soldier down the line -- perhaps three or four times in all. None of that -- he strode straight down the line looking straight ahead, as though he was either shy at meeting the soldiers' gazes or was in a bad mood. He certainly looked the latter.
3. Speech at the Banqueting Hall in Whitehall last night: Curious and very contrived. He gave a set speech, well scripted, on his usual recent theme (American-type democracy for all). Nothing to be gained from his body language. What was contrived about it was that the audience didn't know anything about it until the last moment. A Conference on Ballistic Missile Defence attended by 150 military experts and salesmen were in a side-room in Whitehall and were then suddenly asked to proceed to the Banqueting Hall to be addressed by an un-named VIP. Althgough this was obviously a very pro-Bush sort of audience I thought the applause at the end was a little hesitant to start with -- as though they knew they'd been set up for filming purposes and didn't quite know whether they were expected to applaud or not.
In half-an-hour, he and Blair will be in front of a Press Conference on BBC TV. I have a computer consultant coming in about then, but I'll record the session anyway to make sure of catching everything. This is the sort of occasion where I'll expect some interesting body language.
5. Well, I was completely and utterly wrong. There was nothing to learn from Bush's demeanour. It was a straight face all the way through. This performance was what is called in cricket a "Night Watchman's innings" -- when a batsman comes to the wicket late in the afternoon when his side's score is in a perilous condition. It's his job not to do anything spectacular by way of runs, just to make sure he's not bowled out and hope that the batsmen on the next day can get the runs. So every ball that's bowled at him is treated with a safe, dead bat. That's what Bush and Blair were doing today at the Press Conference. Dead-batting all the way -- and onyl letting rikp when saying how much they hated terrorism.
They had not long received the news that the British Consulate in Istanbul had been blown up -- with at least 24 deaths and several hundred (some said 400) injured. . Al Qaeda had timed this attack to perfection on the morning of the Press Conference. Their faces suggested that they are both deeply worried men. (Bush's State Department was warning of this before the Iraq invasion.)
From their set faces both are clearly deeply worried, however, despite the absence of any giveaway body language. Blair has aged five years in the last year and I think that Bush is beginning to age quickly now -- there are some deeply etched lines in his forehead now.
They had six questions in half-an-hour. Bush and Blair spent no more than two or three minutes discussing answers to these. Very quickly, they turned every question on different subjects to a tirade about terrorism. Blair started the Press Conference with a speech of 5 minutes, Bush with another one almost as long (he, speaking from notes) -- and so it went on. I would say that they spoke for 20 minutes on why they disliked/hated/despised terrorism. When question specifically, Bush didn't deny that a provisional government would be in place by June but that, when the Americans went, there would be adequate Iraqi security forces remaining.
I was studying him very closely while he was saying this, I was listening to his words very carefully. My overall interpretation of this (the only really interesting few sentences in the whole of the conference) is that, indeed, indeed, indeed, the Americans will be getting out by June --and probably before then. And, what's more, Bush isn't going to worry very much if there's a civil war as a consequence. Bush will just hope that it's not too bloody and won't affect his campaign too much. But Bush is obviously hoping that American public opinion will not get any worse. (And that's where I think he'll be mistaken -- but that's a separate judgement.)
Well, there we are. Blair is the more intelligent man and tried, on one or two occasions, to answer questions just a little deeper -- not very effectively, however. But in doing so, he showed much clearer signs of stress, in my view. (Of course, he's also awaiting the Report of Lord Hutton abut the death David Kelly due to his decision -- as told by the senior civil servants of the Ministry of Defence.)
Blair spoke much more often than Bush and spoke for longer periods. It seemed to me that this had been planned beforehand because Bush turned too readily and too frequently in Blair's direction -- giving him the nod to take over. He spoke of the special friendship with Blair often -- very often -- and I gain the impression (as with the Guardsmen this morning), that Bush is very shy about conversation with anybody, except those he trusts because he has such a limited repertoire. (If you remember, some months ago when Bush went to Europe -- apparently to speak to European leaders -- I bet Harry that we would not see any TV clips of him in close conversation with any of those leaders. And so it turned out. Not once. He was only filmed ince in a formal photo shot, and on the evening that there was a real leaders' get-together, Bush had cleared off to Poland. This man is of limited intelligence. At any one time, he has about six sentences or phrases in his head which he repeats and repeats . . . and repeats. He's very good at giving a fully scripted performance. He is quite hopeless at any sort of extempore conversation. When he was interviewed by David Frost he was guided and prompted all the way. His lack of intellgience is now being much talked about. When Douglas Herd, our ex-Foreign Secretary spoke about Bush this morning on the political programme he said that Bush is actually an intelligent and sophisticated person. When Hurd was asked directly whether he had ever met Bush, he said no. Probably he has no more evidence than we have from watching Bush on TV but, as an ex senior politican he was trying to back up Bush out of loyalty. I think Bish is utterly and totally reliant on a very limited number of people closely around him. If ever they break ranks, he will be doomed immediately.)
One final observation -- which might be significant. When the sixth question had been answered I would have expected Blair to thank the journalists, thank Bush, and then courteously show Bush out. What happened was that as soon as a few words had been said in reply to the last question, Bush walked very quickly from his lecturn to the door, and nodding only once to someone at the front of the press corps whom he obviously knew. He gave the impression that he was very glad to escape. (Or that he was in a bad temnper underneath.) I think his speed took Blair by surprise.
That's it. Whether I'll have a chance to see Bush again in close-up I doubt, but if I do, I'll let you know further.
Keith Hudson
Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>
