Keith,
Very good analysis, but let me introduce another thought.
It seems to me that if the Middle East is left alone nothing much will change except, perhaps, present regimes may be replaced by revolutionary leadership.
However, even this is no more than conjecture. We simply don't know.
We do know that left to themselves the present sporadic terrorism could well be replaced by a serious network of terror financed by the deep pockets of the Arab leaders.
As it is, the Western armies in Iraq may influence the direction of Arab policies toward peace and trade -- the great peacemaker.
I rather think the Saudis have been given something to think about by our exit from the arena and the mounting terror attacks in their own country. The Syrians seem to be paralyzed by the army at their borders and always the threat of the US supported Israeli attack (though Israel doesn't need any support). Iran, as I mentioned in an earlier post, seem to be making a rapprochement with the US. At least, there is a kind of under-the-counter meeting of minds, which ain't all bad.
We should watch for clues to this.
The terrorists have the weakness (to offset the terrible strength of guerrilla tactics). It is their supply of money and weapons. Arab sources of these supplies must be frightened, or coerced, into cutting the means for terrorist attack. Maybe now the attack is on the own door step, the Saudis will begin to have second thoughts. It seems that much of the money to support terrorist attacks -- including in Israel -- had Saudi sources.
If Arafat doesn't stop financing Hamas, maybe we should cut off his funds. (Of course, he can bring back to Palestine the enormous funds he has squirreled away.)
Elsewhere, the six nations may yet sit at the table and discuss the Korean peninsular, If all this comes to pass, perhaps Bush will be regarded as the best diplomat in this and the previous centuries.
But, I just know you won't go along with that.
Harry
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Henry George School of Social Science
of Los Angeles
Box 655 Tujunga
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From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Keith Hudson
Sent: Thursday, November 20, 2003 11:02 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [Futurework] The terrorist attacks in Istanbul
They were quite right to be deeply shocked by these terrorist attacks. All of us have been. But quite what were Bush and Blair really thinking as they stood behind their lecterns? They both knew that they had been advised by their own intelligence people before the invasion of Iraq that it might well result in more turbulence in the Middle East and an extension of the terrorism. Well, this is what has happened so far and, as time goes on , the total death toll might well exceed the numbers of those killed on 11 September 2001 at the New York Trade Center.
Both Bush and Blair declared resonantly and repeatedly that the Al Qaeda-led terrorism would be defeated. Indeed, they said it so many times during the press conference that one realised that they were really only trying to reassure themselves. In truth, they were probably not at all confident.
The press conference, as shown on BBC 2, was actually interleaved with the Politics programme and on this an Arabic newspaper editor commented that politicians always say that they are going to defeat terrorism. He reminded us that a succession of British prime ministers had been saying this for over 30 years about the troubles in Northern Ireland but that, in the end, they had to negotiate with the IRA terrorists -- or at least with those who were closely connected with them in order to clarify the injustices and grievances that existed and had to be put right. In fact, we now know that secret negotiations had been going for some years before it was publicly admitted. Even then, they weren't catalysed until the IRA hurt the UK where it hurt the most -- by destroying the Baltic Tower in the City of London. If the UK government had not acted from then onwards with the greatest celerity, then it is quite possible that the IRA would have driven all the major financial institutions from the City of London, and London would be finished as the second largest financial business centre in th world.
The grievances of the majority of Muslims in the Middle East, particularly of millions of young unemployed Muslims in Saudi Arabia and Palestine, are far more complex and intractable than those of the Catholics in Northern Ireland. It must be said that a considerable part of the problem of Islam has been due to the way that a succession of ijtihads -- interpretations of the Koran -- over the centuries by leading mullahs has contributed to its decline as a rich and scholastic culture and its withdrawal fom the normal trading circuits of other cultures, but the depradations of western nations in exploiting oil resources in recent decades has only intensified their problems.
In these days of easily available weapons and explosives, Al Qaeda-type terrorism, welling up from the misery and oppression of so many people will never end until deep and sensitive investigation is made. Otherwise the deaths will mount and there could be incidents far worse than 9/11.
There are several deep trouble spots in the Middle East, such as Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Morocco and several more. The first two are by far the most serious and in both of these America, being the overwhelming military power in the world, could have been much more active in finding solutions and of gently encouraging more contact.
Yesterday evening, as I began writing this, we received the news of the suicide bombings in Istanbul. This morning, as I write afinal paragraph, we are hearing of the latest rocket attacks in Baghdad (something I've been expecting while Bush is in England). Little is known yet of fatalities but the only two main hotels left in Baghdad, the Sheraton and the Palestine, and the only government ministry that had been kept inviolate by the American invasion, the oil ministry, have been attacked. It is difficult to imagine that any foreign firms will be able to send staff to Iraq from now onwards in order to help in the rebuilding of Iraq.
The invasion of Iraq has been the biggest blunder imaginable by two nations which should have been better informed of the real situation in Iraq. The real reason for the invasion of the nation with the second largest oil reserves in the world was the dangerous internal state of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, containing the largest oil reserves in the world, which is a principal supplier of oil to America and the UK. Saudi Arabia is also the main exporter of finance which has procured the weaponry and exposives that Al Qaeda and other Muslim terrorist groups have been able to use.
The fundamental problem of Saudi Arabia thus remains, and the following article from the Economist is a fairly succinct descrption of the situation now. My own view, despite the current attacks in Istanbul and Baghdad, is that the main weight of Al Qaeda terrorism is already in the process of shifting to Saudi Arabia itself. This problem will still remain even if the Iraq situation could miraculously disappear overnight. The gist of most of what I have been reading in recent months suggests that the Saudi Arabian authorities are failing in their attempts to extinguish their home-grown Al Qaeda network.
Keith Hudson
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