On Sun, 9 Dec 2012 13:44:09 -0800 Grant <emailgr...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > But this is an old, old, old argument. People predicted the demise > > of> mainframes for years when x86 started becoming a quite powerful > > of> cpu.> The current truth is that IBM sell more mainframes year > > of> on year, growth> is more than mere inflation can account for, > > of> and mainframes are just> getting stronger. So x86 didn't kill > > of> the mainframe, instead x86 played> a huge role in making both > > of> stronger. I see no reason to believe the> same story won't play > > of> out exactly the same all over again between x86> and ARM.This > > of> is really interesting. "all over again" is exactly what I > > of> expect to happen, but I didn't realize it happened as you say. > > of> A friend of mine was really into SPARC in the 90's and > > of> complained loudly when x86 grabbed its market share. At least > > of> that was how I understood it. I imagine the same thing > > of> happening with ARM and x86, but maybe I'm jumping to > > of> conclusions? x86 and SPARC is not the same thing as x86 and ARM. SPARC was a RISC processor but in it's heyday was comparable to x86 in terms of computing power. It had one sponsor (Sun) and one user (Sun) and one OS (Solaris, or maybe it was called SunOS back then). x86 had far greater mindshare in general plus it had the killer "feature" - the bean counter was already using it in his desktop and knew SPARC and x86 were quite comparable in some significant ways. He also knew the price difference.... It's a classic case of a smaller player trying to take on a bigger player directly on it's own turf. x86 vs ARM is not that game at all. ARM is an embedded processor that, whilst it could replace x86 on low-end desktops, really shines in embedded. It won't displace x86 (nor is it trying to), it will carve out new niches for itself, almost exactly like x86 did when mainframes and minis ruled. Where ARM does replace x86, I reckon it will be because x86 was not really a good solution there. For example, Atom vs ARM (that is a valid comparison). I don't think Atom will last much longer - the form factor that really used it - netbooks - is much better served by tablets. The tablet trumps the netbook, and Atom dies when the netbook dies. -- Alan McKinnon alan.mckin...@gmail.com
