na realidade o cara trabalha para o mercado que está investido em OURO fisico para ele o mercado se livrando dos papeis e fugindo para o ouro interessa a ele (digo grupo)
mas o defiti publico americano sempre deixou os conselheiros de cabelo em pé: como recomendar que o dinheiro dos seus clientes seja entregue de bandeja (compra de titulos do tesouro americano) mas é comodo para quem IMPRIME US$ ficar na contra-mão do mercado qualquer coisa basta rodar a guitarra dificil é um pais como nosso que vive de vender o "patrimonio" - commodities - operar com um US$ tão barato ou em contra-partida - um real SOBRE valorizado esta será sem duvida a chamada "herança maldita" que nosso estadista deixara para seu sucessor - seja quem for ou independente de partido 2009/11/24 Paulo Sérgio Pinto <ppi...@superig.com.br> > > > Eu acho que os EUA, ainda que aos trancos e barrancos, se safam. O Porter > Stansberry, autor do texto abaixo, não leu Thomas Hobbes. Ou, se leu, não > entendeu. Um país com os melhores canhões do planeta é virtualmente > inquebrável. :-) :-) :-) > > > AKA escreveu: > > *The bankruptcy of the United States is now certain* Tuesday, November > 24, 2009 > > *From Porter Stansberry in the S&A Digest:* > > It's one of those numbers that's so unbelievable you have to actually think > about it for a while... Within the next 12 months, the U.S. Treasury will > have to refinance $2 trillion in short-term debt. And that's not counting > any additional deficit spending, which is estimated to be around $1.5 > trillion. Put the two numbers together. Then ask yourself, how in the world > can the Treasury borrow $3.5 trillion in only one year? That's an amount > equal to nearly 30% of our entire GDP. And we're the world's biggest > economy. Where will the money come from? > > How did we end up with so much short-term debt? Like most entities that > have far too much debt - whether subprime borrowers, GM, Fannie, or GE - the > U.S. Treasury has tried to minimize its interest burden by borrowing for > short durations and then "rolling over" the loans when they come due. As > they say on Wall Street, "a rolling debt collects no moss." What they mean > is, as long as you can extend the debt, you have no problem. Unfortunately, > that leads folks to take on ever greater amounts of debt… at ever shorter > durations… at ever lower interest rates. Sooner or later, the creditors wake > up and ask themselves: What are the chances I will ever actually be repaid? > And that's when the trouble starts. Interest rates go up dramatically. > Funding costs soar. The party is over. Bankruptcy is next. > > When governments go bankrupt it's called "a default." Currency speculators > figured out how to accurately predict when a country would default. Two > well-known economists - Alan Greenspan and Pablo Guidotti - published the > secret formula in a 1999 academic paper. That's why the formula is called > the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. The rule states: To avoid a default, countries > should maintain hard currency reserves equal to at least 100% of their > short-term foreign debt maturities. The world's largest money management > firm, PIMCO, explains the rule this way: "The minimum benchmark of reserves > equal to at least 100% of short-term external debt is known as the > Greenspan-Guidotti rule. Greenspan-Guidotti is perhaps the single concept of > reserve adequacy that has the most adherents and empirical support." > > The principle behind the rule is simple. If you can't pay off all of your > foreign debts in the next 12 months, you're a terrible credit risk. > Speculators are going to target your bonds and your currency, making it > impossible to refinance your debts. A default is assured. > > So how does America rank on the Greenspan-Guidotti scale? It's a guaranteed > default. The U.S. holds gold, oil, and foreign currency in reserve. The U.S. > has 8,133.5 metric tonnes of gold (it is the world's largest holder). That's > 16,267,000 pounds. At current dollar values, it's worth around $300 billion. > The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve shows a current total position of 725 > million barrels. At current dollar prices, that's roughly $58 billion worth > of oil. And according to the IMF, the U.S. has $136 billion in foreign > currency reserves. So altogether... that's around $500 billion of reserves. > Our short-term foreign debts are far bigger. > > According to the U.S. Treasury, $2 trillion worth of debt will mature in > the next 12 months. So looking only at short-term debt, we know the Treasury > will have to finance at least $2 trillion worth of maturing debt in the next > 12 months. That might not cause a crisis if we were still funding our > national debt internally. But since 1985, we've been a net debtor to the > world. Today, foreigners own 44% of all our debts, which means we owe > foreign creditors at least $880 billion in the next 12 months - an amount > far larger than our reserves. > > Keep in mind, this only covers our existing debts. The Office of Management > and Budget is predicting a $1.5 trillion budget deficit over the next year. > That puts our total funding requirements on the order of $3.5 trillion over > the next 12 months. > > So… where will the money come from? Total domestic savings in the U.S. are > only around $600 billion annually. Even if we all put every penny of our > savings into U.S. Treasury debt, we're still going to come up nearly $3 > trillion short. That's an annual funding requirement equal to roughly 40% of > GDP. Where is the money going to come from? From our foreign creditors? Not > according to Greenspan-Guidotti. And not according to the Indian or the > Russian central bank, which have stopped buying Treasury bills and begun to > buy enormous amounts of gold. The Indians bought 200 metric tonnes this > month. Sources in Russia say the central bank there will double its gold > reserves. > > So where will the money come from? The printing press. The Federal Reserve > has already monetized nearly $2 trillion worth of Treasury debt and mortgage > debt. This weakens the value of the dollar and devalues our existing > Treasury bonds. Sooner or later, our creditors will face a stark choice: > Hold our bonds and continue to see the value diminish slowly, or try to > escape to gold and see the value of their U.S. bonds plummet. > > One thing they're not going to do is buy more of our debt. Which central > banks will abandon the dollar next? Brazil, Korea, and Chile. These are the > three largest central banks that own the least amount of gold. None own even > 1% of their total reserves in gold. > > I examined these issues in much greater detail in the most recent issue of > my newsletter, Porter Stansberry's Investment Advisory, which we published > last Friday. Coincidentally, the New York Times repeated our warnings - > nearly word for word - in its paper today. (They didn't mention > Greenspan-Guidotti, however... It's a real secret of international > speculators.) > > *Crux Note:* The S&A Digest comes free with a subscription to Porter > Stansberry's Investment Advisory. Porter says his latest issue is the most > important he's ever written. If you don't act right now to protect yourself > from the dollar, he thinks the odds are very high you'll be wiped out over > the next 12 months. To learn more, click > here<http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/0811PSINEX99/EPSIKB52/PR> > . > > *More from Porter Stansberry: > * > What the world's best investors are recommending > now<http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/3184/Porter_Stansberry> > > Stansberry: Detroit's socialist nightmare is America's > future<http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/3247/Government_Stupidity> > > Porter Stansberry produces best government rant you'll read in > 2009<http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/3447/Government_Stupidity> > > > > -- aka (21) 8256-0865 http://www.redeamazoniaazul.net.br/ LIFE WAS BORN AT SEA, DON’T LET IT DIE THERE!
