dulu sebelum domestic fuel consumption sebesar sekarang, kenaikan harga minyak berarti berkah buat pemerintah..ada gain buat pendapatan devisa yg tak di perkirakan, biasanya penysunan ABPN-kan di patok pada harga minyak saat itu, sekarang harga minyak naik, membuat semuanya menjerit, pengusaha sangat kesusahan dengan biaya produksi yg naik, beberapa PLN daerah yg masih tergantung BBM malah akan menurunkan daya supplynya, negara juga harus menyediakan dana untuk subsidi BBM ke masyarakat. Dengan ditambah situasi masalah hukum di abitrase HI, akan kah kita mengalami kesulitan BBM?
-----Original Message----- From: Ariadi Subandrio [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Friday, October 01, 2004 8:22 AM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; Rovicky Dwi Putrohari Subject: Re: [iagi-net-l] Saudis to Boost Oil Production Capacity as Price Hits $50 Dari minyak rasanya sudah sangat sulit kita dapat tambahan rejeki. Dari mana lagi harapan tambahan produksi minyak Indonesia. Tahun 2001 (2002?), Caltex masih ngebor dengan 56an rigs, konon sekarang tinggal 18 (bahkan denger2 kemarin udah cabut lagi dua, jadi tinggal 16). Mudah2an windfall penjualan gas-gas kita dapat memberi tambahan rejeki. Akan semakin komplikated, jika khabar bahwa arm Pertamina untuk impor-export crude PT. PETRAL kalah dalam pengadilan (masalah klaim KBC yg menuntut pembekuan Petral) di Hongkong. Akibat lanjut dari situasi tersebut adalah kemungkinan terganggunya pasokan feed untuk BBM Dalam Negeri. Sementara BBM domestik tetep pake crude international price. dan Tak ada kenaikan harga BBM. Selamat datang pemerintah baru. salam, ar- Rovicky Dwi Putrohari <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: Sepertinya angka psikis 50USD/bl sudah tercapai. So what next ? Ada kemungkinan naik hingga 60 !!! RDP === Saudis to Boost Oil Production Capacity as Price Hits $50 By JAD MOUAWAD Published: September 28, 2004 http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/28/business/28CND-OIL.html?ex=1097035200&; en=5e24b6ec024248ca&ei=5053&partner=NYTHEADLINES_BIZ ARIS, Sept. 28 âEUR" The price of oil, which has been rising for the last two years, broke through the $50-a-barrel mark today, reaching a new milestone as some analysts warned that there was nothing to stop prices from rising further. Fueling these gains is an exceptional alignment of events: record high demand, historically low spare capacity, and a set of potentially destabilizing events in some of the world's top oil regions, including Iraq, Russia, Venezuela and Nigeria. "The market is looking for a new equilibrium point and no one knows where that will be," said Jamal Qureshi, an analyst at PFC Energy, an oil consultant based in Washington. "We still have a way to go. I wouldn't be surprised to see $60 a barrel." On the New York Mercantile Exchange, oil for November delivery closed at $49.90 a barrel today. Earlier in the session, futures rose as high as $50.47, setting a new record. Oil prices âEUR" up nearly 55 percent this year âEUR" have doubled in two years. What pushed prices up this week was news of possible clashes between the army and rebel militants in Nigeria that could threaten the country's oil production, and the consequences of Hurricane Ivan last week in the Gulf of Mexico, a region that makes up a fourth of American domestic oil production. At the same time, demand for oil is running at a pace not seen since 1978. The world is expected to consume nearly 1 billion more barrels of oil this year than it did last year, driven by strong and sustained demand coming from China, India and the United States. Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil producer, responded today with a pledge that it would raise production capacity to 11 million barrels a day, from 9.5 million. Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi Arabian oil minister, had mentioned the increase in capacity earlier this month while meeting with fellow OPEC oil ministers in Vienna. "The kingdom is ready and capable of making up for production shortfall occurring anywhere in the world," Mr. Naimi was quoted as saying by the official Saudi Press Agency. This is the second time oil prices have hit record highs in recent weeks. On Aug. 20, crude oil futures touched $49.40 during trading but within days fell back to about $43 a barrel. Eric Bolling, an independent oil trader on the Nymex, said this rise might be different. He referred to the oil market as going through a "perfect storm." After the passage of Hurricane Ivan over Florida, the cumulative loss of production from the gulf region had reached 11.8 million barrels, or about 1.9 percent of the yearly output there, said the Minerals Management Service, an Interior Department agency. A third of the region's production is still not making it to markets. To make up for the shortage, oil companies in the United States have been drawing on their stocks, which are near 29-year lows. In turn, that leaves less oil to refine into either gasoline or heating oil necessary for the seasonal winter peak in demand. Mr. Bolling said: "There's underlying strength to $50 this time. A lot of things have happened since $40." "I'm going to wait till the market gives me a signal we've reached a ceiling" before betting oil contracts will fall, he said. "We're not there yet." Since most oil producers are pumping full out to meet record-high demand, little spare capacity is left in the system. High prices reflect the lack of any substitutes for any interruptions in production anywhere, analysts said. OPEC's spare capacity âEUR" idle production that can be brought on when needed âEUR" has sunk from about 15 million barrels a day in the mid-1980's, to around 1 million to 1.5 million barrels today. "The market is much tighter today than it's been since 1973," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. "Unlike 1973, 1979 or 1990, the market today is going through a demand shock, not a political shock. Also, the market is not thinking long term. It's thinking day to day." -- my blog : http://putrohari.tripod.com/Putrohari/ --------------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Visit IAGI Website: http://iagi.or.id IAGI-net Archive 1: http://www.mail-archive.com/iagi-net%40iagi.or.id/ IAGI-net Archive 2: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/iagi Komisi Sedimentologi (FOSI) : F. Hasan Sidi([EMAIL PROTECTED])-http://fosi.iagi.or.id Komisi SDM/Pendidikan : Edy Sunardi([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi Karst : Hanang Samodra([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi Sertifikasi : M. Suryowibowo([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi OTODA : Ridwan Djamaluddin([EMAIL PROTECTED] atau [EMAIL PROTECTED]), Arif Zardi Dahlius([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi Database Geologi : Aria A. Mulhadiono([EMAIL PROTECTED]) --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? vote.yahoo.com - Register online to vote today! --------------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Visit IAGI Website: http://iagi.or.id IAGI-net Archive 1: http://www.mail-archive.com/iagi-net%40iagi.or.id/ IAGI-net Archive 2: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/iagi Komisi Sedimentologi (FOSI) : F. Hasan Sidi([EMAIL PROTECTED])-http://fosi.iagi.or.id Komisi SDM/Pendidikan : Edy Sunardi([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi Karst : Hanang Samodra([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi Sertifikasi : M. Suryowibowo([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi OTODA : Ridwan Djamaluddin([EMAIL PROTECTED] atau [EMAIL PROTECTED]), Arif Zardi Dahlius([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi Database Geologi : Aria A. Mulhadiono([EMAIL PROTECTED]) ---------------------------------------------------------------------
