Mas Ade, Apa kabar? Netters, Salam,
Menurut saya sih, pemanasan-pendinginan global itu bergantung jangka waktu, siklus pereode waktunya. Ada siklus sinusoidal Salam: sehari, sebulan, setahun, 7 a, 70 a, ..., 70 Ga. Mendingin dari zcu "zerocross up" hingga 1/4 pereodenya, lalu memanas hingga 3/4 pereodenya, lalu mendingin hingga tahun satu pereode berikutnya. 1. Sehari: Bila waktu kini malam, maka menuju siang adalah pemanasan, lalu menuju malam adalah pendinginan. 2. Sebulan: banyak gempa gunung yang menimbulkan lava, pada minggu purnama dan minggu bulan mati di banding dua minggu lainnya dalam sebulan. Artinya pada minggu banyak gempa, bumi semakin panas. 3. Setahun: bila di belahan bumi selatan, dan kini Mei, maka menuju Juli bumi mendingin, dan juli ke desember memanas. 4. 7 th: sejak 2004, bumi mendingin hingga 2005, lalu memanas hingga 2009, lalu mendingin hingga 2011. 5. 70 th: sejak 1969, bumi mendingin hingga 1986, dan lalu memanas hingga 2022, dan lalu mendingin hingga 2039. 6. 700 th: Sejak 1619, bumi mendingin hingga 1794, dan lalu memanas hingga 2144, dan lalu mendingin hingga 2319. 7. 7000 th: Sejak 5381 BC, bumi mendingin hingga 3631 BC, 131 BC, dan lalu mendingin hingga 7000 th kemudian (ya th 1619 AD), yang terus mendingin hingga th 3369 AD, lalu memanas hingga th 6869 AD. 8. dst, hingga siklus 70 Ga, yang bisa di lihat dari Kalender Salam. Pengaruh pembakaran hidrocarbon pada global warming amatlah kecil. Muka tinggi ketika bumi panas, dan muka laut rendah bila bumi dingin. Ada istilah "global climate change", untuk merujuk situasi kini yang berubah cepat. Istilah ini saya perbaiki menjadi "Fast Global Climate Change". Perubahan cepat, ketika sinusoidal Salam berada pada zcu-zcd "zerocross up-zerocrossdown". Itu tahun tahun yang saya sebut di atas, sebagai awal tiap siklusnya tadi. ZCD ada pada separo pereodenya. Bagaimana Mas Ade, atawa juga yang lain? Wass, Maryanto. ________________________________ From: Ade Kadarusman <a_kada...@yahoo.com> To: iagi-net@iagi.or.id Cc: ade.kadarus...@valeinco.com Sent: Tuesday, May 19, 2009 5:59:03 PM Subject: [iagi-net-l] global warming vs global cooling If global cooling will come soon -- scientists will lose trust ." - Award-winning Japanese Geologist Dr. Shigenori Maruyama, a professor at the Tokyo Institute of Technology's Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, March 2009. Dear all, Kebetulan cari artikel pemanasan global untuk tugas sains anakku, disatu pihak saya harus menjelaskan ke anakku penyebab pemanasan global akibat ulah manusia, yang sementara saya sendiri tdk mempercayai-nya…………. Jadi rasanya terlalu naif hanya karena satu sebab…….. Kira-kira13 tahun yang lalu (1996-1997), saya ikut kuliah tentang “Earth and life history from 3.9Ga to present day” dari guru saya, Prof. Maruyama, beliau sangat keberatan dengan teori pemanasan global atau perubahan iklim akibat efek rumah kaca yg diakibatkan ulah manusia. Di kuliah tsb menjelaskan sejarah bumi kita yang mengalami ratusan atau ribuan kali perubahan iklim (pemanasan global atau pendinginan global) yang diakibatkan faktor eksternal dan internal bumi, yang intinya mendukung teori siklus-nya Milankovich. Dan ternyata penolakan terhadap teori pemanasan global akibat ulah manusia makin besar diantara kalangan akademik, dan sudah dilakukan voting juga nih he..he..he…kayak LuSi..ups. Yang tidak berubah dari bumi adalah bumi kita selalu berubah………… Regards, Ade Kadarusman, dari tepian Danau Matano............ ============================== THREE senior Japanese scientists separately engaged in climate-change research have strongly questioned the validity of the man-made global-warming model that underpins the drive by the UN and most developed-nation governments to curb greenhouse gas emissions. "I believe the anthropogenic (man-made) effect for climate change is still only one of the hypotheses to explain the variability of climate," Kanya Kusano told The Weekend Australian. It could take 10 to 20 years more research to prove or disprove the theory of anthropogenic climate change, said Dr Kusano, a research group leader with the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science's Earth Simulator project. "Before anyone noticed, this hypothesis has been substituted for truth," writes Shunichi Akasofu, founding director of the University of Alaska's International Arctic Research Centre. Dr Kusano, Dr Akasofu and Tokyo Institute of Technology geology professor Shigenori Maruyama are highly critical of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's acceptance that hazardous global warming results mainly from man-made gas emissions. On the scientific evidence so far, according to Dr Kusano, the IPCC assertion that atmospheric temperatures are likely to increase continuously and steadily "should be perceived as an unprovable hypothesis". Dr Maruyama said yesterday there was widespread scepticism among his colleagues about the IPCC's fourth and latest assessment report that most of the observed global temperature increase since the mid-20th century "is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations". When this question was raised at a Japan Geoscience Union symposium last year, he said, "the result showed 90 per cent of the participants do not believe the IPCC report". Dr Maruyama studies the geological evidence of prehistoric climate change, and he thinks the large influences on global climate over time may be global cosmic rays and solar activity. Like Dr Akasofu, Dr Maruyama believes the earth has moved into a cooling period, and while Japan is spending hundreds of millions of dollars on carbon credits to hedge against global warming, the country's greatest looming problem is energy shortage, particularly oil. "Our nation must pay huge amounts of money to buy carbon discharge rights," he said. "This is not reasonable, but meaningless if global cooling will come soon -- scientists will lose trust." Dr Maruyama said he was uncomfortable, given the scientific uncertainty of man-made climate-change theory, that Japan had taken a leading position in the crusade for global greenhouse emission targets. The scientists and two others -- Seita Emori, of the National Institute of Environmental Studies, and Kiminori Ito, of Yokahama National University -- contributed to a paper titled "The scientific truth of global warming" that was published in January by the Japan Society of Energy and Resources. Professor Emori is a firm supporter of man-made climate-change theory and Dr Ito is generally for it, although with reservations about the scientific rigour of the IPCC approach. The doubters, particularly Dr Kusano and Dr Akasofu, are being widely cited by greenhouse-sceptic websites, after their sections of the paper were translated by The Register, a London-based online publisher. However, the paper's co-ordinator said the JSER's position on anthropogenic global warming was neutral. "This paper represents the views of the individuals and not of the society," said Hideo Yoshida, of Kyoto University. "The purpose is to stimulate debate among scholars and readers, and let them form their own judgment." The Japan Society of Energy and Resources is an academic group that promotes co-operation between industry, academic research and government. Dr Maruyama said many scientists were doubtful about man-made climate-change theory, but did not want to risk their funding from the government or bad publicity from the mass media, which he said was leading society in the wrong direction. ----------------------------- More than 700 scientists discredit man-made global warming fears “59” might be the magic number for Americans to start thinking twice about global warming fears. 59 scientists around the world have officially added their names to the much-publicized U.S. Senate Minority Report that denounces claims about man-made global warming. This pushes the tally of skeptical scientists to well over 700. According to a new report, the 700-plus scientists are “now more than 13 times the number of U.N. scientists who authored the media-hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers.” Many of the scientists are “affiliated with prestigious institutions” including NASA, the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Defense Department, Princeton University, as well as countless others. Skeptical scientific voices are enjoying more and more company in past weeks, especially in light of a recent article published in The Australian that says Japanese scientists are largely rejecting man-made global warming claims. Japanese Geologist Dr. Shigenori Maruyama, professor at the Tokyo Institute of Technology’s Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, said this month that “there was widespread skepticism among his colleagues about the IPCC's fourth and latest assessment report that most of the observed global temperature increase since the mid-20th century 'is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.'" According to a report published by the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, Maruyama noted that when this question was raised at a Japan Geoscience Union symposium last year, "the result showed 90 percent of the participants do not believe the IPCC report.” The same report notes: Botanist Dr. David Bellamy, a famed UK environmental campaigner, former lecturer at Durham University, and host of a popular UK TV series on wildlife, says the international promotion of man-made global warming fears are nearing their end. “The science has, quite simply, gone awry. In fact, it’s not even science any more, it’s anti-science,” says Bellamy, who used to believe in man-made warming. Perhaps Princeton physicist Dr. Robert H. Austen, a member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, said it best earlier this month: “Unfortunately, Climate Science has become Political Science … It is tragic that some perhaps well-meaning but politically-motivated scientists who should know better have whipped up a global frenzy about a phenomena which is statistically questionable at best.” Increasingly, the number of scientists skeptical of global warming seem to be responding to both doomsday predictions of climate change as well as peer-reviewed analyses that downplay claims that man-made global warming is a reality. Just a few weeks ago, Dr. Anastasios Tsonis of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee remarked in Geophysical Research Letters that while Earth undergoes natural climate changes: “I don’t think we can say much about what the humans are doing.” In almost every way, his appropriately ambiguous thoughts seem to best underscore the current war between skeptics and alarmists. Lebih aman saat online. Upgrade ke Internet Explorer 8 baru dan lebih cepat yang dioptimalkan untuk Yahoo! agar Anda merasa lebih aman. Gratis. Dapatkan IE8 di sini! http://downloads.yahoo.com/id/internetexplorer/
