Kirk, Yes, I agree also and the ability to read a manual....have a ton of customers who don't even take the time to rtfm..l
Scott ford www.identityforge.com On Jun 1, 2012, at 5:33 PM, Kirk Talman <rkueb...@tsys.com> wrote: > IBM Mainframe Discussion List <IBM-MAIN@bama.ua.edu> wrote on 05/23/2012 > 05:39:26 PM: > >> From: "Roberts, John J" <jrobe...@dhs.state.ia.us> > >>> When the last Cobol programmers walk out the door, so may 50 years >> of business processes within the software they created. Will you be >> ready? > >> >> Ed, Interesting article and fairly accurate IMO. >> >> This is what I can foresee happening: >> (1) Many companies will try to offshore their COBOL application >> support. But this won't work so well because it is hard enough to >> understand these systems without facing the complications of >> language and arcane terminology. And the young ones back in >> Bangalore will want to do Java, not COBOL. > > Actually the language is not a problem. We have people here from multiple > nations, some whose English is lacking. But they can doing the > programming work - well. > > The problem is the lack of application knowledge. We just had a senior > person retire to a ranch in FL. He was senior person in his critical > application. He ran a series of weekly one hour technical seminars. The > problem was that he could answer any question off the top of his head. But > an organized overview and drill down into each part of the system and the > relationship of that system to multiple other systems was not there. > > He was used to being a S(ubject)M(atter)E(xpert)/guru. Ask him a question > and he could answer it or tell you where to find the answer. > > Without that kind of person, trying to port the application to anything > else is risky as is training newbies. > >> (2) Other companies will want to recruit overseas, either for CS >> grads that they can train, or for those few that are willing to >> invest in COBOL learning if that is what it takes to punch that H1B >> ticket. But even so, once here they are all going to be looking to >> do something else, not COBOL. So that company that recruits and >> trains a COBOL resource is going to be looking for a replacement >> within a couple years. > > We have had over the years training programs to build new Cobol > programmers. They work fine. But again, the application knowledge is not > in books. It was transmitted by SMEs. > >> (3) Efforts to train new young COBOL resources are going to flop, as >> the article mentions. Again, everyone expects COBOL to be a career >> dead-end once beyond a 5 to 10 year transition period. > > Since Cobol is now talking to distributed applications in various ways, > Cobol people are getting exposure to distributed applications. I recently > had a project transferred from me which was going to have me build part of > an environment that is both mainframe and distributed. As long as the > documentation is there, there is not a huge chasm to cross. > >> (4) In the end, US companies are going to be forced to pay a premium >> just to hang on to their old-timers long enough to buy time to >> implement that new ERP package or new custom application. The ones >> that will be successful doing this are going to be the ones that >> accommodate their senior developer's desires: lots of time off, >> telecommuting, job sharing, benefits, etc. > > Right now at the moment there are enough Cobol programmers leaving other > companies that is still a supply of new people, some of which have fine > skill sets. But as time goes on, there will be a cliff. > > I just returned from Germany. There was talk there that there is an > "engineering" shortage in the market there. Never bothered with the > details. Maybe the recession there will give them time to kick the can > down the road more. After all, it has been working so well for dealing > with their financial problems. > >> John > > > ----------------------------------------- > The information contained in this communication (including any > attachments hereto) is confidential and is intended solely for the > personal and confidential use of the individual or entity to whom > it is addressed. If the reader of this message is not the intended > recipient or an agent responsible for delivering it to the intended > recipient, you are hereby notified that you have received this > communication in error and that any review, dissemination, copying, > or unauthorized use of this information, or the taking of any > action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly > prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, > please notify us immediately by e-mail, and delete the original > message. 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