On Tue, Jan 03, 2006 at 08:32:08PM +0100, Poul-Henning Kamp wrote: > If we can increase the tolerance to 10sec, IERS can give us the > leapseconds with 20 years notice and only the minority of computers > that survive longer than that would need to update the factory > installed table of leapseconds.
Do you have any evidence for this assertion? It seems to me that if IERS had presented a table in 1980, based on the conventional wisdom that the earth is continuing to slow down over time, we'd have been at the edge of that 10-second window in 2000. And who knows how far off a 1995 prediction would be in 2015, or what decadal fluctuations have in store for us in the future. http://hpiers.obspm.fr/eop-pc/earthor/utc/leapsecond.html Anyone have a prediction algorithm in mind, and a result of running it on the last several decades or centuries of data? Neal McBurnett http://bcn.boulder.co.us/~neal/
