The climate bomb The following article was published in "The Guardian", newspaper of the Communist Party of Australia in its issue of Wednesday, December 8th, 1999. Contact address: 65 Campbell Street, Surry Hills. Sydney. 2010 Australia. Phone: (612) 9212 6855 Fax: (612) 9281 5795. CPA Central Committee: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> "The Guardian": <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Webpage: http://www.cpa.org.au> Subscription rates on request. ****************************** Associate Professor of Climatology, Dr Tapeshwar Singh, visited Australia recently to attend the International Congress of Biometerology and the International Conference of Urban Climatology. Peter Symon interviewed him about climate change and its consequences on behalf of "The Guardian". Peter Symon: How many countries were represented at these conferences? Dr Tapeshwar Singh: More than one hundred countries participated. PS: There was little or no coverage of these meetings in the Australian mass media. Given the widespread interest and the importance of this question, how do you explain the fact that the media did not cover it? TS: It is very disappointing because the questions of climate and environmental change are getting high attention all over the globe and not only among scientists. In the near future this aspect of the environment has to be investigated otherwise the survival of mankind will be put to the test but I do not know why the mass media in Australia has not properly covered the conferences. PS: Have scientists generally reached any conclusion about climate change? Is it now confirmed that the world is warming? TS: Yes! But warming is not the only aspect of climate change. Other aspects are also there but the highest body, the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and most of the countries in the world are involved in making the policies, assessment, what will be the impact, forecasting the consequences and checking reports. In '96 the IPCC already stated categorically that climate change is happening and will happen. PS: Is that change generally described as "warming"? TS: Yes! It is warming. Major indicators over the last 100 years show that global temperature has increased by five degrees. The last four years have been the hottest in the long history of climate. The hottest year was 1998. It is true that global warming is of high concern when we see overall climate change. PS: There was recently a devastating cyclone on the East coast of India and we are now hearing of and seeing on the TV many floods, droughts, cyclones in many countries. Do these events mean that the changes taking place in the world's climate are significant? TS: Yes! The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has already predicted and assessed that climate change will lead to extreme weather events. For example, drought, cyclone, extreme floods, these kind of events will increase not only in frequency but will cover more area and will increase in intensity, will be more destructive. Natural disasters will increase. PS: We are already hearing reports of an increase in sea- levels. What could this bring to many people? TS: Yes! It will have catastrophic consequences. Sea level changes are related to climate change, that is, global warming. If the temperature goes up, naturally the ice cover of the Arctic and Antarctica and snowy peaks in the high mountains will melt and naturally they will raise the level of the sea. If sea level is raised by about one metre, about 15 per cent of the world population maybe inundated. Sea water will cover literal areas and particularly the survival and existence of island states will be threatened. That's why Hawaii, Fiji and many such islands have expressed serious concern about global climate change and its consequences maybe leading to the non-existence of such island states. PS: Do you think the possibility of a rise of one metre of the oceans of the world is an exaggeration or is it a real possibility? TS: It will maybe take a long time. It is not necessary that we will see a rise of one metre in the next 10 or 20 years. Some scientists have also contested this view. They say that if there is global warming there will be melting of snow on the one hand and on the other, due to higher temperatures, there will be high evaporation also and that the climate will adjust. But the majority of the scientists in the world, particularly the international scientific community in each field, believe that climate change will lead to a rise in the oceans. There is apprehension about the inundation of the island states and cities and the population living along coasts throughout the world. PS: What in your opinion are the main causes of global warming? TS: Although climatic changes have taken place in the past - on four occasions major climate changes have taken place - these have been periods of glaciation and de-glaciation - and man was not instrumental and was not responsible for those changes. But it has to be said that in the recent past - about 200 years, there is a very rapid growth of population and rapid destruction of natural resources. This has created a situation where global forest areas have been significantly reduced and this will affect the climate. PS: Do you have any statistics on the amount of forests that have been cut down around the world? TS: There are many reports. There are reports that about one third of the forest land in the world has been degraded or cutdown during the last 150 years. If we take the example of India's plain where only 200 years back 57 per cent of the Ganges plain was under forest but at present it is less that 14 per cent. If you go by only three districts near the national capital region of Delhi, only one per cent is under forest. Fifty-six per cent has been lost to transport networks, industrialisation, built up areas, etc. PS: Is the destruction of forest areas a greater contributing factor to global warming than the burning of coal, motor vehicles? TS: The reduction of forest areas will have very serious repercussions on the climatic and environmental conditions of the globe. Earlier, people would say that where there is forest there is cloud, there is rain, there is water. Where the forest is cut down it leads to erosion and the sort of changes we are facing today. PS: Are we now facing a situation in which the world has passed a point of no return. Is it possible to wind back the clock to a few hundred years ago. TS: No, it is impossible now because of the rapid increase in the population of the planet as a whole and pressure on all the natural resources. What we have already started and destroyed we cannot restore. We do not have any technology, we do not have any capacity to restore it. For example, due to erosion the top soil has already been carried to the oceans and cannot be taken back again. The same is the case with wind erosion. There are regions being eroded by wind action. But if we have the foresight we can reduce the destruction, we can reduce the rapacious exploitation of natural resources. One must leave something for coming generations otherwise our children and grand-children will not even have the opportunity to see it. That is happening. PS: What you are suggesting is a rather doomsday scenario. Are we facing a situation which is now beyond repair and therefore we are going to face more and more climatic catastrophes? TS: Certainly. More catastrophes. But we should not be completely disappointed. We should be optimistic also. Nature has sometimes its own processes of adjustment, it readjusts. But so far man's action on the environment is so alarming and to an extent beyond which it may not be suitable for the survival of human kind. I hope we will take some suitable measures for optimum utilisation and not the present rapacious exploitation without thinking of the consequences. We should be very cautious in dealing with nature and protect the life support systems. PS: What has to be done specifically to stop this process or slow it down? TS: I feel every action has a reaction. Globally and at national level there are some mistakes in planning strategy. We do not have optimum planning, we have this exploitation of the natural resources but if we plan our economy and minimise the consumerist approach we are not going to face the doom we expect from these changes. PS: Given that we are dealing with the tremendous power wielded by transnational corporations and governments which are not persuaded about planning do you think it necessary to have a look at these questions as well - who is running the economy and for what purpose? TS: Yes, definitely geo-politics are very much involved and related to the environmental changes. I have just been to Newcastle and was told by one of my professor colleagues that there was a big iron factory closed only a fortnight ago and about 800 workers have become jobless. I asked why this factory closed? He replied that this is the policy of displacement of pollution from the developed countries to the developing countries and to mitigate the pollution. I feel that these tactics will not help because so far as the environment is concerned the world has become global. If one creates problems in Australia or in India or in the US or England, that contributes to the overall environmental conditions which humankind has to face around the globe. I understand from some literature that this multi-national corporation and big industrialists are more concerned with their benefits and less concerned with the welfare of society. In that situation they exploit resources rapaciously only for the sake of their benefit and not for the benefit of all. They further aggravate the situation and do not help to mitigate it. PS: Are the agreements made at Kyoto environmental conference in Japan enough and are they being implemented? TS: Broadly we can say that it is being implemented but so far many of the countries are not going to abide by the declaration. Their plea is that those who have made the major contribution to the global destruction of the environment have come from the developed, highly industrialised countries and they must mitigate it. Polluters must pay. It is not the developing countries that are the main polluters or destroyers of the environment. So why should they pay. They are not going to abide by it. But overall I feel the declaration will have a positive impact on the global environment. PS: Is there an environmental movement in India? TS: Yes! In India there is an environmental movement and there are many societies, voluntary organisations, NGOs and they are working for the protection of the environment but sometimes what happens in my country, particularly, is that politics come into play. Sometimes people oppose the construction of dams, roads and the building of cities, railway lines, etc. I feel however, that the movement is not well organised but they have some influence and sometimes they do some very good and constructive work. People are getting concerned about the environmental degradation. The movement is there. PS: Do you have any other question or aspect that you would like to convey to the readers of "The Guardian"? TS: Thank you very much for this question. I have talked enough and I would like to convey that we must preserve the environment, preserve the climate, ultimately preserving our life. It should be given the highest priority in all countries whether developed or developing. It is not the business of only rich countries and neither the concern of the poor only. It is of global concern and we should take it globally. PS: Do you think that climate change is as dangerous for life on earth as nuclear weapons? TS: Yes. It is as dangerous as nuclear weapons. Climate change can be treated as exploded if it has a drastic impact on the life of society. If the world climate is changed and the carbon dioxide component is increased beyond the quantity that can be absorbed by humankind - then it will become a bomb. The entire humankind, even all bio-organisms will be finished on this planet earth. It will take some time but it will become an atom bomb if it is not mitigated. -- Leftlink - Australia's Broad Left Mailing List mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.alexia.net.au/~www/mhutton/index.html Sponsored by Melbourne's New International Bookshop Subscribe: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]?Body=subscribe%20leftlink Unsubscribe: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]?Body=unsubscribe%20leftlink
