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Russia withdraws support from Assad as regime disintegrates
http://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/middle-east/73196-150531-report-russia-withdraws-support-from-assad-as-regime-disintegrates
Moscow removes senior military officials from Damascus, pro-Saudi
newspaper says
Russia is in the process of disengaging from embattled Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad and removing key personnel from Damascus, the
Saudi-owned London-based Asharq al-Awsat newspaper reported Sunday.
"The Kremlin has begun to turn away from the regime," the newspaper
said, citing senior Gulf and Western officials.
According to the report, opposition sources also noted that Hezbollah,
in addition to Iranian and Russian military experts, had withdrawn from
Assad's war room in the Syrian capital.
The change in the Russian position is reportedly linked to ongoing
negotiations between the Gulf States and Moscow, as well as the economic
sanctions that have crippled Russia's economy as a result of the war in
Ukraine.
Syrian opposition sources told Asharq that 100 senior Russian officials
had left Syria via the airport in the port city of Latakia.
Moscow also slashed the number of staff members currently employed at
its embassy in Damascus, leaving only a few key members.
The pro-Saudi paper also cited the head of a Russian delegation at a
meeting, who was asked to comment on the future of Syria.
"What matters to Russia is maintaining its strategic interests and
ensuring the future of the minorities, the unity of Syria and the
struggle against extremists," the delegation chief was quoted as saying.
The response is considered unusual in that for years Moscow officially
maintained there was no alternative to Assad.
Assad announced in late March that Russia is supplying weapons to
Damascus under contracts signed since the conflict in Syria began in
2011, as well as under earlier deals.
"There are contracts that had been sealed before the crisis started and
were carried out during the crisis. There are other agreements on arms
supplies and cooperation that were signed during the crisis and are
being carried out now," Assad said.
"They went through some changes to take into account the type of
fighting the Syrian army carries out against the terrorists," he said in
the full text of the interviews.
Assad gave no details of the weapons being supplied by Russia, the
world's second-biggest arms exporter, since the start of the conflict
which has killed more than 220,000 people and displaced millions.
Bashar al-Assad: The beginning of the end?
The more important question to ask now is what - not who - will replace
Assad.
22 May 2015 08:36 GMT | War & Conflict, Politics, Middle East, Syria,
Bashar al-Assad
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/05/bashar-al-assad-syria-palmyra-150521130901934.html
Marwan Bishara is the senior political analyst at Al Jazeera.
@MarwanBishara
It was fashionable during the early phase of the Syrian revolution to
predict Bashar al-Assad's demise. But when the Syrian president defied
all expectations and hung on to power at all cost, including hundreds of
thousands of casualties, his detractors stopped forecasting.
With some hesitation, I shall throw my hat in the ring and ask whether
we've finally entered a new phase in Syria: is it truly the beginning of
the end for Assad and his decades' old regime?
And once again, perhaps the more important questions to ask and answer
are what - not who - will replace Assad, and how - not if or when.
The latest defeat and retreat of Assad's forces from two key cities is a
sign of more to come. The triumph of a new coalition of opposition
parties in Idlib as well as the success of ISIL in Palmyra is a major
blow to the regime.
Weakened ISIL narrative shattered by advances
More importantly, the regime's incapacity to regroup, redeploy and
recuperate its loses, whether geographic, civilian or military, have
further demoralised its army over recent weeks and months.
Changing momentum
That's the nature of asymmetrical warfare; the longer the stronger
fights the weak, the weaker it becomes. And so after four years, the
fighting has finally taken its toll on the regime's military. It's
exhausted, it's dispirited and it's poorly equipped.
From a strategic perspective, Assad has lost much of his power when he
failed to deter or scare people into submission in the first few months
of the uprising.
And once he used force and failed to defeat his enemies, and then failed
again when using terrible and illegal violence against civilians and
fighters alike, it all signalled that his time was up, and the countdown
had started for his demise.
If he survives at all, Assad will be a tidbit militia leader for a bit
longer.
Sacrificing Assad, saving Syria
Like all dictators, Assad has relied primarily on force. And when force
becomes ineffective, there's little else to rely on in the absence of
national or popular legitimacy. Except perhaps for his immediate
loyalists.
But even those loyalists in the capital Damascus or from among the
Alawite sect, who've become dependent on the regime, will soon conclude
that it's wiser to sacrifice Assad in order to save the capital, the
community and the country, than sacrifice them all in a desperate
attempt to save a dictatorship.
The same applies to Assad's regional and international supporters
notably, Iran and Russia. They will conclude that only by sacrificing
Assad and his immediate clique of war criminals, could they save face
and salvage their regional role and influence.
US secretary of State John Kerry carried a similar message to Putin last
week. He reportedly interrupted the Russian president's vacation in
Sochi to push for the revival of the principles of the Geneva-1 talks on
Syria in order to avoid the collapse of the state along with the regime.
These principles focus on negotiations between elements of the regime
(minus Assad & co.) and the coalition of the opposition parties (minus
ISIL and Jabhat al-Nusra) over power sharing and national
reconciliation.
It's far from ideal, but under the circumstances, it's the only way to
salvage what's left of the country.
Cynicism bordering on criminality
The US and Russia agree on the need to maintain the Syrian state
structure at any cost in order to avoid total uncontrollable chaos with
a spillover effect on the rest of the region.
But they disagree on when or how Assad goes. The Obama administration
wants him out at the beginning of the reconciliation process, while
Russia insists that he goes out at the end of the process, if at all.
Meanwhile, ISIL is growing and countless more Syrians are dying in vain.
And as usual, Russia is playing chess with the US. Before it compromises
on Syria, it wants something in return on Ukraine, including lifting the
sanctions. And that doesn't seem to be forthcoming unless Russia makes a
similar goodwill gesture.
But there might still be some change in Russia's position because of the
festering disagreement with Iran. While Moscow and Tehran have long
supported Assad, Russia suspects Iran cares less about the survival of
Syria than the survival of its Syrian allies.
But Iran has a strategic calculation of its own, and it's not very
different from those of Russia. Tehran considers Iraq its Ukraine and
could eventually sacrifice Assad for greater US concessions there.
Last week's US green light for the Iranian supported Popular
Mobilisation militias to fight ISIL in Ramadi reflects this new reality.
It's the type of US-Iran coordination that could pave the way for
strategic bartering wherein Iran sacrifices Damascus to gain more
influence in Baghdad.
After Assad
Having said all this, there's only one sane way forward for Syria:
negotiations and reconciliation to end the old Assad dictatorship and
the building of a new inclusive Syria.
My guess, most Syrians have come to this conclusion but they need the
push to set aside their hatred and distrust and begin to talk.
The guiding humane and democratic principles for the Syrian uprising
might have been obscured by the violence of sectarian and criminal
militias, but they remain alive and well.
They cannot grow in time of war; they could only flourish in the shadow
of peace and stability.
That's why it's high time the US and Russia put aside their differences
and use their clout to bring their regional and Syrian allies to agree
on the roadmap ahead.
Marwan Bishara is the senior political analyst at Al Jazeera
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