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The curse (of needing to make a prediction) has come upon me (yet again). My reading of the entrails is influenced by Krugman, Galbraith and above all by Alan Kohler's comment. The latter, a regular on Australian TV, said that YES would prevail because there was no alternative. I am inclined to think he genuinely believed that. But NO has triumphed and so an alternative must emerge and fairly quickly too. Merkel, Juncker, Gabriel, Schauble, Draghi, Lagarde and Hollande all have egg and worse on their face. For them the unthinkable has happened. They have allowed a political drama to develop and what was designed to be an object lesson for the Irish, the Spaniards, the Portuguese and the Italians has achieved the exact opposite. I can sense the stink of fear from all of the pro-austerity governments. Merkel & Co will either toughen their stance, as Gabriel seems to have suggested, or retreat. More harshness would mean that the current politicization of the masses will continue. A crisis of legitimization might ensue with unpredictable consequences. So what is my prediction? They will retreat. All they have to do is to accept Syriza's compromise offer. Tsirpas has shown himself willing to retreat. It was just that Merkel and co got too far ahead of themselves and went for the big prizes, regime change and the crushing of the anti-austerity movement. Watch Kevin Kostner's awful film *Draft Day* to get an idea of what they thought they were doing. If I read the entrails correctly, Krugman and Galbraith offer a way out. A retreat to moderate Keynesianism is on the cards. Everything will be done to return to business as usual. Bruised egos aside, a renewed attack on Greece puts the whole bloody system in danger. I suspect that somewhere behind the scenes the Americans are handing out sedatives to the European leaders and advising a fall back. What this means for the anti-austerity movement is hard to predict (that word again!). Obviously, it has had a tremendous victory. & may be we should just enjoy that for the moment. comradely Gary _________________________________________________________ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
