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When in 1936 Liberty Magazine predicted Landon over FDR, it was so
discredited that it soon folded.
But now we have what may be the ultimate bankruptcy of the "science"of
electoral polling:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/11/09/the-cataclysm-notes-on-election-day-and-the-politics-of-exhaustion/:
"The polls all suggest that it will be a big night for Hillary. She
either has a94% chance
<http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/304663-emerson-college-polling-predicts-electoral-landslide-for>of
winning, an84% chance
<http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=c-column-middle-span-region®ion=c-column-middle-span-region&WT.nav=c-column-middle-span-region>of
winning, or a71% chance
<http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo>,
according to the alleged savant of analytics Nate Silver, who has been
hedging his bets over the last two weeks. That’s a 23% margin of error
for the leading pollsters."
From my inbox, New York Times running composite poll data leading up
to the elections:
09-12-16 Clinton 80%, Trump 20%
09-15-16 Clinton 76%, Trump 24%
09-20-16 Clinton 74%, Trump 26%
09-23-16 Clinton 73%, Trump 27%
09-27-16 Clinton 69%, Trump 31%
10-04-16 Clinton 79%, Trump 21%
10-11-16 Clinton 87%, Trump 13%
10-14-16 Clinton 89%, Trump 9%
10-18-16 Clinton 91%, Trump 9%
10-28-16 Clinton 91%, Trump 9%
11-01-16 Clinton 88%, Trump 12%
11-04-16 Clinton 84%, Trump 16%
Back in the 1940s, Gallop was exonerated by stating that the "science"
needed tuning. After all these years, what will Nate Silver and the NYT
and the rest have to say about this? --- Surely not class analysis?
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