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Well, not quite "win the Middle East", given how widely hated Iran is now outside areas of sectarian identification in the region, but yes Cole is right that Trump has just handed Iran and its allies - but also anti-Saudi Sunni Islamist radicals - a huge card. The sub-imperialist Saudi and Iranian theocracies are engaged in geopolitical/sectarian rivalry throughout the Middle East. On the other hand, there is no rivalry between Israel and Iran, because the former has no influence whatsoever in the region to rival over, being seen essentially as a massively armed colonial implant. However, Israel and Iran are engaged in a super war of rhetoric, predicated precisely on their geographical distance making the loud noise non-dangerous. There has been much talk in recent months of a "Saudi-Israeli convergence" of interests on Iran - of course, a "convergence" is obvious - leading to alleged behind the scenes talks and intelligence cooperation etc. How far any of this went and what it could even mean in practice, nobody knows. But it was never likely to be a reality unless Israel made some kind of concession to the Palestinians, ie, the complete opposite course to that of the Likud regime of Netanyahu and his ultra-rightist allies. The Saudi "guardians" of the Holy Places simply could not openly do a deal while Jerusalem remained under occupation. There had been some talk lately of the Saudi leader MBS telling PA leader Abbas to accept some new half-baked "peace" plan involving only about half of the (Saudi- written) Arab Peace Plan of 2002 (which had involved total Israeli withdrawal of all lands occupied by Israel in 1967, including Jerusalem, and allowing a sovereign Palestinians state with Jerusalem as its capital), as a way of opening formal relations with Israel. Whether such a teacherous plan was mooted or not, one thing for sure now is that it is dead. Cole therefore is right that Trump just handed Iran a rhetorical victory and the Saudis a setback for their regional anti-Iran strategy. However, he doesn't entirely get it, because while he quotes various regional leaders condemning Trump's move, he continues to talk of the "Saudi-Israeli alliance" and suggests that in contrast to these condemnations, "The Saudis are supine". Ah, not quite: "The decision goes against the "historical and permanent rights of the Palestinian people", the (Saudi) royal court said, calling on Trump to reconsider his decision. "The kingdom has already warned of the serious consequences of such an unjustified and irresponsible move," the statement said. "The US move represents a significant decline in efforts to push a peace process and is a violation of the historically neutral American position on Jerusalem." That doesn't sound supine to me. MBS knows something about what he needs to say to keep his throne. Israel, on the other hand, naturally loves Trump for it. So regardless of whether or not the alleged convergence was going on behind the scenes, Trump has just killed it. And then following the Saudi condemnation, Trump issued an unusually pointed directive to the Saudis to end their criminal blockade on Yemen, just a few days after the Iranian-backed Houthis murdered their 3-year ally, former Yemeni tyrant Saleh, which thus leaves the Houthis supreme in the region encompassing the former North Yemen where the anti-Saudi Saleh-Houthi alliance was ruling. Trump of course is right to demand the Saudis end the blockade which is starving people, but he doesn't care about Yemenis any more than MBS cares about Palestinians. But if he said this as a rebuke to the Saudis at this point, then it also appears to favour Iran, even if again by accident. But then the killing of Saleh itself is not so straightforward a victory of Iran as it may seem. Yes, it means that Saleh-Houthi territory is now just Houthi, ie, pro-Iran, territory. However, the Iranian regime couldn't care less about a bunch of ISIS-like sectarian mass killers down in Yemen, except as a thorn in the side of the Saudis. But without Saleh, they are a greatly weakened thorn. That's why, as soon as the Saleh-Houthi mutual slaughter began in the capital Sanaa (leaving hundreds dad across the city), Iran responded by offering dialogue. First, by betting on the former leader deposed in the Spring, against the Saudis' pick of his former deputy, Hadi, Iran was backing a "national figure" with some credentials, rather than just a sectarian force whose home base was in the far north of the country. The capital in particular was more Saleh than Houthi territory at base. Second, the only reason the Houthis, based in the far north, were able to so easily conquer the capital and then conquer the centre and south and even get to Aden was not because they had support there - they have faced mass resistance ever since - and nor because of the fabled Iranian arms that the Saudis claim are helping the Houthis. No, most of the Houthis' arms were not Iranian but courtesy of Saleh's continued control over large parts of the Yemeni military and links with the officer caste. Saleh's people didn't fire a shot as the Houthis rag tag militia walked into Sanaa in 2014, and then his forces joined the Houthis in the invasion and occupation of the south. So, while Trump's recognition of Jerusalem was a blow against Saudi Arabia and a rhetorical gift to Iran, Saleh's lynching (and the lynching of his relatives, including a 13-year old nephew) was a blow against Iran. On Thu, Dec 7, 2017 at 11:55 PM, Louis Proyect via Marxism <marxism@lists.csbs.utah.edu> wrote: > ******************** POSTING RULES & NOTES ******************** > #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. > #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. > #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. > ***************************************************************** > > > > https://www.juancole.com/2017/12/trumps-jerusalem-mideast.html > _________________________________________________________ > Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm > Set your options at: > http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/mkaradjis%40gmail.com _________________________________________________________ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
