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Interesting article in Foreign Affairs on Syria. They conclude that Assad
cannot consolidate his grip on the country because his forces are already
stretched too thin. Nor can Russia or Iran step into the breech. They are
concerned that ISIS and al Qaeda will grow as a result. Here is their
conclusion:

"The collapse of the Syrian economy and growing discontent among Assad
loyalists—as well as a Turkish military intervention that has pro-regime
forces badly overstretched—have created an opening. Renewed commitment to
Syria will be uncomfortable, given Americans’ concerns about open-ended
conflicts and coming just five months after the Trump administration’s
decision to shift most U.S. troops in Syria across the border to Iraq. But
the United States must act.

The U.S. troops that were redeployed to Iraq should be returned to Syria’s
northeastern region. Turkey’s efforts to repel Assad’s forces and protect
civilians in northwestern Syria deserve American support. But U.S. efforts
are best concentrated in the northeast. In close coordination with its
allies, the United States should work to stabilize the region and to assist
reconstruction, development, and resettlement efforts. Syria’s northeast
has a relatively strong economy compared with economic conditions in
regime-controlled areas, and focused investment will help establish it as a
model of safety, prosperity, and good governance—a credible alternative to
Assad that could help pave the way for a political transition. The United
States has a real opportunity to change the course of the brutal Syrian war
and, potentially, to shape its endgame.

From Foreign Affairs:

Time to Recommit to Syria
A Currency Crisis Has Created an Opportunity to Shape the War’s End

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-02-18/time-recommit-syria

-- 
*“In politics, abstract terms conceal treachery.” *from "The Black
Jacobins" by C. L. R. James
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