Olivier --
For a model of what our down-side-of-the-Hubbert-curve global situation might
look like, and practices that might well be embraced for this inevitable
de-industrialization process that cannot be stopped by any technological
implementations, only slightly slowed through radical human behavior shifts:
Greer, John Michael. The Long Descent: A User’s Guide to the End of the
Industrial Age. Gabriola Island, B.C.: New Society Publishers, 2008.
If anyone would like a pdf, ping me off list...
It, as you can see, was published in 2008, but the premise, the draining of the
very finite reserves of hydrocarbons, globally, and social trajectories that it
imposes are the same as now, except we are a bit further along on the way down.
The arrival of intensive fracking for natural gas only slowed the drain
slightly, and as fracked gas resources are depleted on average far faster than
conventional wells, this slow-down of the demise will be short-lived... It will
be the lack of available energy that will more-or-less slowly constrict our
lives from the present of excess to lives of far less in every way. Greer argues
against the apocalyptic collapse that is envisioned; but also against any
technological 'silver bullet' that might, against all thermodynamic laws,
generate infinite energy for all to consume at will. It's a good read for
understanding where/how things will likely happen (and are already happening) --
especially in terms of your transforming 'social profile' idea. Because the
structure and operation of the social is deeply intertwined with the
availability of usable energy sources...
JH
On 14/Oct/19 05:47, olivier auber wrote:
Thanks César
As you have understood, I am speaking from a perspective borrowed from the
cognitive sciences, particularly the social signal theory. Other aspects
are also developed in my book.
- Executives who fly for a yes or no, do so to send social signals.
- People locked in their homes and stuck on social networks do it to send
social signals.
- Eating beef is a social signal.
- Have children too!
My hypothesis is that the social profile of our species is likely to
change. We will certainly not stop sending social signals, otherwise we
would turn into stones. It is the shape of the profile that could evolve.
It could move from the S-shaped comprising two non-competitive classes C1
and C3 and a single competitive class C2, to a z-shaped where C1 and C3
would become competitive while C2 would become less so.
In my book I put forward some arguments that suggest that this
transformation is underway and why we should encourage it.
The consequences are enormous, including in terms of energy and the
environment, because signal production is extremely energy-consuming.
--
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Dr. John Hopkins, BSc, MFA, PhD
hanging on to the Laramide Orogeny
http://tech-no-mad.net/blog/
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