Let me try this again...
As Bill Evans has stated previously, the next cold front
will pass through the northeast by Wednesday evening.
Initially, northern New England will have some post-frontal
showers with northern NY having some lake effect rain showers
(not quite cold enough yet for the white stuff). South of these
areas to the middle Atlantic coast, the winds are projected
to be west near the surface to northwest at 850 mb or
~ 5000 feet above ground level(AGL) Wednesday night.
As the front moves farther east, the winds try to turn
more northwesterly Thursday night from the surface
to 850 mb/~5000 feet AGL. Showers may linger in
the far north.
Friday night- winds are projected to be more northerly...
possibly north to northwest from the surface to
850 mb/~5000 AGL. north-northeast winds are forecast across southeast
Canada. In
addition, the winds
will be lightening up. The showers should be gone
in northern New England. Could this be the best night
for New England? The models are not showing
any period of prolonged northeast winds
at the low-levels at this point for quite some time
looking at the long range projections (10 days).
One note of caution: the farther out in time we project
the weather the less certainty. The chaotic nature
of the atmosphere amplifies small sub-grid model
errors into large enough scale errors to change
the forecast markedly. So Thursday night
and Friday are less certain. That is what happened
with Earl and this past weekend's front. Initially the winds
were projected to be northwest but it turned
out to be more west behind the front.
The flight was decent south and west of the northeast
U.S. but not in the northeast as Bill predicted.
Any ideas or comments...please share.
Dave Nicosia
Johnson City NY
P.S for those not familiar with wind directions- A north
winds blows from north to south. A south wind blows
from south to north etc. It is the direction the wind
is coming from, NOT blowing toward.
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