I checked with Julie Shieldcastle from Black Swamp Bird Observatory 
(south shore of Lake Erie about 30 km east of Toledo). The numbers for 
their Navarre banding station were actually above average for the 
spring, contrary to my impression that they were low to moderate. Bill 
Evans pointed out that the higher numbers this year are supported by his 
listening station there: http://www.oldbird.org/Data/2013/ONWR/ONWR.htm

Bill also pointed out that my call counts in Cleveland Heights are 
higher than the detections at the listening station at Black Swamp this 
year.  His thought is that my station may get a concentration of birds 
attempting to fly around Lake Erie, and also that artificial light at my 
suburban station may be a factor.

Laura Gooch
Cleveland Heights, Ohio

On 6/5/2013 8:38 AM, Laura Gooch wrote:
> I don't have enough years of data to say anything very
> useful about night calls during migration here (east side of 
> Cleveland, Ohio). However, I do know that we had a very light spring 
> banding season. I believe that the banding season at Black Swamp Bird 
> Observatory, on the south shore of Lake Erie about 30 km east of 
> Toledo (a few km east of Magee Marsh), was also light to moderate. 
> They have over 20 years of banding data at BSBO, and I believe that 
> they do note light years in which winds seem to favor migrants staying 
> farther west as they move north. On the other hand, I know Mark 
> Shieldcastle (research director at BSBO) was concerned about mortality 
> from the repeated periods of unseasonably cold weather in the south 
> central part of the country.
>
> I'm still analyzing my data for this spring. Most of what I've counted 
> and ID'd so far is posted here:
>
>     http://listeningup.wordpress.com/summary-of-night-flight-calls-detected/
>
>
> If some of you more experienced folks have a chance to take a look, 
> I'm curious how these numbers compare to what other stations detect. 
> I'm counting from 1/2 hours after sunset to 1/2 hour before sunset, 
> which will mean that I have few more hits than the 1 hour after/before 
> protocol, but this won't have much impact since I generally don't get 
> many hits in these periods. In addition, some of these nights still 
> need a second pass that will result in some adjustment of the numbers. 
> I don't expect the change to be more than 5% or so, mostly in the 
> downward direction as I eliminate a few possible hits that I 
> previously flagged for further examination. Unfortunately, I my ID 
> efforts haven't caught up to the days when significant warbler 
> migration might be expected to begin.
>
> Laura Gooch
> Cleveland Heights, Ohio
>
> --- On *Tue, 6/4/13, birde...@yahoo.com /<birde...@yahoo.com>/*wrote:
>
>
>     From: birde...@yahoo.com <birde...@yahoo.com>
>     Subject: Re: [nfc-l] [nysbirds-l] Fwd: Minimal Migration or
>     Population Decline?
>     To: "Joan E. Collins" <joan.coll...@frontier.com>
>     Cc: "Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes" <c...@cornell.edu>,
>     "NYSBIRDS-L" <nysbird...@list.cornell.edu>, "<NFC-L@cornell.edu>"
>     <NFC-L@cornell.edu>
>     Date: Tuesday, June 4, 2013, 6:36 PM
>
>     All,
>
>     My delayed, or lack there of, sightings of many
>     migratory-Adirondack-breeding-species would fall in the same vein
>     as what everyone else is seeing. However, watching the Doppler
>     radar patterns(which I did over much of May) of spring migration
>     species, show just what Chris has mentioned...there were many
>     nights when birds came up along the Mississippi corridor due to
>     that long lasting, and blocking weather pattern through much of
>     early May(or somewhere around that time!). And also as Chris
>     mentions, birds may have flown to the Great Lakes region(on
>     favorable winds)and finally found some westerlies to get them to
>     eastern breeding grounds. This could(?) explain why we missed so
>     much in May.
>     Did we see higher (easterly) migration patterns around the Great
>     Lakes(Chicago, Cleveland, Buffalo?)
>     I hope we can get some more birder-input on this fascinating topic!
>
>     Brian McAllister
>     Saranac Lake
>
>
>     On Jun 4, 2013, at 4:11 PM, "Joan E. Collins"
>     <joan.coll...@frontier.com
>     </mc/compose?to=joan.coll...@frontier.com>> wrote:
>
>>     Thank you for this interesting post Chris.  This has been a
>>     dominate topic of discussion among many birders in the
>>     Adirondacks. Sean O’Brien and I have been talking every few days
>>     wondering what has happened to many neotropical migrants this
>>     year.  I mentioned the low numbers of Blackpoll Warblers and
>>     Yellow-bellied Flycatchers on Whiteface Mountain in my earlier
>>     post today, but numbers of most neotropical migrants appear way
>>     down. Sean keeps remarking that there is no dawn chorus this
>>     year.  Even my non-birder husband has been noting the lack of
>>     birds this spring.  Normally, you can’t sleep past 4:30 a.m. in
>>     our house at this time of year because of the remarkable dawn
>>     sounds outside our bedroom window, but it feels more like late
>>     summer every morning with the lack of songs.  I was aware of the
>>     weather-related fallout on the Gulf Coast of Texas in April, and
>>     I had to wonder, with so many birds too exhausted to be afraid of
>>     humans, how many may have perished unseen over the Gulf?
>>
>>     Migration seemed highly unusual this year.  Normally, species
>>     like Blue-headed Vireo would suddenly fill the forests overnight.
>>     This year, I found ONE, and then a week went by and I found a
>>     second one, then several days went by and they began to arrive in
>>     a trickle.  Species were, for the most part, late arriving and
>>     they trickled in.  We have been waiting for the forests to fill,
>>     but it hasn’t happened and it is now June 4th.  In a section of
>>     Massawepie Mire that is normally filled with breeding Canada
>>     Warblers, we heard one on Saturday.  It is definitely worrisome.
>>
>>     As you mentioned, BBS surveys may help document the apparent
>>     population declines.  Thanks again for your thoughts about
>>     possible reasons for such worrisome declines.  I too, would be
>>     interested to hear the thoughts of other birders on this topic.
>>
>>     Joan Collins
>>
>>     Long Lake, NY
>>
>>     *From:*bounce-98052797-13418...@list.cornell.edu
>>     </mc/compose?to=bounce-98052797-13418...@list.cornell.edu>
>>     [mailto:bounce-98052797-13418...@list.cornell.edu
>>     </mc/compose?to=bounce-98052797-13418...@list.cornell.edu>] *On
>>     Behalf Of *Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes
>>     *Sent:* Tuesday, June 04, 2013 12:18 PM
>>     *To:* NYSBIRDS-L
>>     *Subject:* [nysbirds-l] Fwd: Minimal Migration or Population Decline?
>>
>>     Good afternoon!
>>
>>     This morning, I sent the following email to NFC-L, the Night
>>     Flight Call eList, and thought some on NYSbirds-L might find this
>>     of interest or have some input.
>>
>>     Sincerely,
>>
>>     Chris T-H
>>
>>     Begin forwarded message:
>>
>>
>>
>>     *Date: *June 4, 2013 9:46:52 AM EDT
>>
>>     *To: *NFC-L <nf...@list.cornell.edu
>>     </mc/compose?to=nf...@list.cornell.edu>>
>>
>>     *Subject: Minimal Migration or Population Decline?*
>>
>>     Good morning,
>>
>>     I am curious to know if recording stations in the Northeast have
>>     experienced, numerically – with respect to quantity of night
>>     flight calls, a reduced number of migrants this spring as
>>     compared to past years. My perception is that there was a
>>     noticeable lack of birds moving throughout certain regions of the
>>     Northeast this spring. Conversely, did recording stations
>>     elsewhere (perhaps in the mid-west) record higher numbers of
>>     migrants this spring?
>>
>>     On the ground, for example, I don't ever remember a year when I
>>     only heard or saw 2-3 Blackpoll Warblers. Period. Usually, I
>>     would hear or see /several/ Blackpoll Warblers on any given day
>>     over the course of a few days during the peak movement for this
>>     species. Of course, maybe a mass die-off of Blackpoll Warblers
>>     and other migrants went unnoticed this past fall or this spring,
>>     similar to the infamous mass die-off from 2-3 October 2011 at the
>>     Laurel Mountain wind facility in West Virginia. See:
>>     
>> http://www.birdfellow.com/journal/2011/10/29/in_the_news_484_blackpoll_warblers_die_at_wind_farm.
>>     Note: it is suggested these birds succumbed to exhaustion from
>>     becoming trapped in the sphere of fog-reflected light produced by
>>     a lighted substation, which was accidentally left on overnight at
>>     the facility, rather than actual deaths caused by direct turbine
>>     strikes.
>>
>>     I know there was a memorable weather-related fallout on the Gulf
>>     Coast of Texas this past 25-27 April 2013. See:
>>     
>> http://www.texasbirdimages.com/home/2013-fallout---cameron-county/nueces-co-list---april-25-2013.
>>     It makes me wonder if it is at all possible for
>>     unfortunately-timed severe weather-related events, during key
>>     trans-Gulf crossings, to result in population-wide declines of
>>     neotropical migrants.
>>
>>     Or, is this just an anomalous year as a result of the negative
>>     phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, producing unfavorable
>>     conditions for nocturnal movement of small passerines into the
>>     Northeast. In possible scenarios like this, do boreal neotropical
>>     migrants favor an alternate springtime route that may carry them
>>     North, up the Mississippi Flyway to a point North of the Great
>>     Lakes, allowing them to then catch the prevailing West wind in an
>>     Easterly direction to their breeding grounds? If such a scenario
>>     were to play out, how do first spring individuals learn of these
>>     routes? Do they follow the masses?
>>
>>     Interestingly, I'm finding that the cuckoos seem most unaffected
>>     by minor Northerly airflow at night (such as the night of 2-3
>>     June). I'm sure their body size and wing length have everything
>>     to do with the ability to migrate into a headwind as compared to
>>     smaller passerines, such as warblers. Last night, in calm to
>>     light winds, I recorded 7 different Black-billed Cuckoos and a
>>     single Yellow-billed Cuckoo, plus a single Virginia Rail, one
>>     Alder Flycatcher, one Swainson's Thrush, and a single Indigo Bunting.
>>
>>     Unfortunately, I was not recording sooner this spring in Etna,
>>     NY, so don't have a good comparison of this year to last year
>>     (for peak migration); however, I did get out as much as possible
>>     to a migrant stopover patch on most mornings (see the Hawthorn
>>     Orchard: http://www.birds.cornell.edu/cayugabirdclub/hawthorn.htm
>>     and check eBird for this site). My perception from daytime
>>     observation was a serious lack of neotropical migrants, yet with
>>     a reasonable amount of resources (insect larvae) for them to feed
>>     upon. This was one of the more memorable springtimes for me, with
>>     respect to flowering trees. I don't recall a time in the recent
>>     past of a springtime with the same amazingly full quantity of
>>     flowers remaining on the trees for as long as they did, yet with
>>     so few migrants. Though, perhaps in actuality there may have been
>>     fewer food resources (insect larvae) available than in past
>>     years, due to the cooler weather this spring (in the Northeast).
>>
>>     If weather conditions correlate as closely to food resource
>>     availability as is probably the case, perhaps the birds use
>>     weather-related cues to avoid migration routes that may lead
>>     through regions with a dearth of food resources as compared to
>>     routes through other regions with high food resources. Or,
>>     perhaps there was a mass die-off in the Gulf this spring or the
>>     Atlantic and/or Gulf last fall, or at nighttime lighted
>>     facilities on unfortunately fog-enshrouded nights. It all seems
>>     so speculative without looking at long-term population trends in
>>     different regions. I think it will be interesting to watch for
>>     the comparative results from this year's Breeding Bird Surveys to
>>     past Surveys and of Surveys to come in future years, as well as
>>     the gradual accumulation of records in eBird.
>>
>>     Thanks for any thoughts and input on this!
>>
>>     Sincerely,
>>
>>     Chris T-H
>>
>>     --
>>
>>     Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes
>>
>>     Field Applications Engineer
>>
>>     Bioacoustics Research Program, Cornell Lab of Ornithology
>>
>>     159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, New York 14850
>>
>>     W: 607-254-2418   M: 607-351-5740   F: 607-254-1132
>>
>>     http://www.birds.cornell.edu/brp
>>
>>     --
>>
>>     Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes
>>
>>     Field Applications Engineer
>>
>>     Bioacoustics Research Program, Cornell Lab of Ornithology
>>
>>     159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, New York 14850
>>
>>     W: 607-254-2418   M: 607-351-5740   F: 607-254-1132
>>
>>     http://www.birds.cornell.edu/brp
>>
>>     --
>>
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