Ikutan sharing Company valuation simpy = Present value of expected streams of earning after discounted of cost of capital (setelah dikurangi biaya modal/bunga) Pengertian earning di sini adalah net (laba bersih)
Di sini sebagai contoh saya ambil penghasilan 10 tahun, pada kenyataannya tergantung mau hitung berapa tahun, ini hanya untuk memudahkan perhitungan. Misal proyeksi laba bersih perusahaan A = tahun 1 = 100milyar tahun 2 = 125milyar tahun 3 = 140milyar Tahun 4 s/d 10 = 150milyar. Cost of capital (pendekatan bunga di sini = bunga pinjaman) kita anggap = 15% Jumlah saham beredar =500 juta lembar. Maka nilai prsh = Thn 1 = 100m/(1,15)^1 = 87m Thn 2 = 125m/(1,15)^2= 95m Thn 3 = 140m/(1,15)^3 = 92m Thn 4 = 86m dst maka total present value s/d tahun ke 10 = 684miliar. Harga saham sendiri secara sederhana = nilai perusahaan/jumlah saham beredar. Jadi nilai saham prsh A/lembarnya= 684m/500jt = 1368 Pada kenyataannya biaya bunga tidak flat setiap tahunnya, begitu juga memprediksi laba (apalagi berbasis komoditi :) tidak mudah. Pendekatan ini agak berbeda dgn yg ditulis Miss El terutama dalam 2 hal yakni earning vs deviden dan bunga deposito vs bunga pinjaman. Dari sudut pandang investor hitungan nona Elaine tidak salah. Menggiurkan sekali, kalau investasi saham bisa menghasilkan deviden sebesar bunga deposito. Cheers, Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -----Original Message----- From: "jsx_consultant" <jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id> Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2009 17:07:51 To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Harga wajar saham Ini rumus Gordon Growth Model: Price = Deviden / (Expected Return-Expected Growth) Expected Growth dianggap nol, lagi RESESI. Dulu kan diajarin kang okoy... hehehe... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Elaine Sui <elainesu...@...> wrote: > > *Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? First, you > must BUY now. That's all. lol..[?] okay seriously, you should consider > comparing stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free rate of > return) or simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread. > > Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio. > (otherwise it's undervalued) > > Example: > Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 100. That > makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of return > (RFRR) is only at 8% > > You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock price MAY > adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value would be > around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 (to > 1250) usually until the dividend is paid. > > Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That makes the > DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high compared to its > dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst, usually soon > after the dividend is paid. > > Case 1: > BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced > <http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/06/12/21/118016/b umi-bagi-dividen-usd317-jt>dividend > was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The simple calculation would be 111/8% > = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI. > > Case 2: > INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced > <http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an- interim-2007-dividend-of-09787-per-share/>that > it'd pay a dividend of $1 or around IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share. The RFRR > is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise to 9000/8% = 112k before the dividend is > finally paid. But the nickel price was already plunged at that time, so the > next dividend forecast fell, and so did the price. The latest dividend cmiiw > was around $0.2, that makes current fair value of INCO is around 25xx. > > I made you confused, didn't I..? [?] this post makes me less 'mysterious' lol > wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. [?] j/k.. > > Elaine > * > 2009/1/4 Richard S <richard...@...> > > > Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan > > fundamental mohon bimbingannya .. > > Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda terlalu mahal > > untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di beli? > > Thanks in advance, Richard. > > > > > > >
