> > Nah kalo masa bearish bagaimana? Adakah nama yang lebih > > cuocokkk untuk mewakili tahapan pada masa bearish? Mungkin teman-teman ada > > ide? Atau embah?
Sekedar melengkapi saja....:-) StockCharts : The Three Stages of Primary Bull Markets and Bear Markets Bull Markets Primary Bull Market - Stage 1 - Accumulation In the first stage of a bull market, stocks begin to find a bottom and quietly firm up. When the market starts to rise, there is widespread disbelief that a bull market has begun. Primary Bull Market - Stage 2 - Big Move The second stage of a primary bull market is usually the longest, and sees the largest advance in prices. It is a period marked by improving business conditions and increased valuations in stocks. Earnings begin to rise again and confidence starts to mend. This is considered the easiest stage to make money as participation is broad and the trend followers begin to participate. Primary Bull Market - Stage 3 - Excess The third stage of a primary bull market is marked by excessive speculation and the appearance of inflationary pressures. Bear Markets Primary Bear Market - Stage 1 - Distribution Just as accumulation is the hallmark of the first stage of a primary bull market, distribution marks the beginning of a bear market. As the "smart money" begins to realize that business conditions are not quite as good as once thought, they start to sell stocks. The public is still involved in the market at this stage and become willing buyers. There is little in the headlines to indicate a bear market is at hand and general business conditions remain good. However, stocks begin to lose a bit of their luster and the decline begins to take hold. Primary Bear Market - Stage 2 - Big Move As with the primary bull market, stage two of a primary bear market provides the largest move. This is when the trend has been identified as down and business conditions begin to deteriorate. Earnings estimates are reduced, shortfalls occur, profit margins shrink and revenues fall. As business conditions worsen, the sell-off continues. Primary Bear Market - Stage 3 - Despair At the top of a primary bull market, hope springs eternal and excess is the order of the day. By the final stage of a bear market, all hope is lost and stocks are frowned upon. Valuations are low, but the selling continues as participants seek to sell no matter what. The news from corporate America is bad, the economic outlook bleak and not a buyer is to be found. The market will continue to decline until all the bad news is fully priced into stocks. Once stocks fully reflect the worst possible outcome, the cycle begins again. http://edwinkdrtradingstyle.blogspot.com/2008/01/stockcharts-three-stages-of-primary.html Untuk Teori DOW Sptnya Bapak Pengamat Market jagonya kali ya :-) Atau mungkin ada ide yg lain...... Tks Best Regards --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, vividtrader <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Klo bullish: akumulasi------->partisipasi---------->distribusi > Klo bearish: distribusi--------->partisipasi (trader cutloss, short seller > byk dll)----------->akumulasi > > Pada 26 Agustus 2008 13:29, Jhon Veter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> menulis: > > > > > > > Nah omong-omong tentang teori DOW dalam teori tersebut disebutkan tiga > > tahapan dalam sebuah pasar yaitu periode akumulasi, partisipasi, dan > > distribusi. Apabila disamakan dengan sebuah wave maka ketiga periode > > tersebut akan terlihat dalam sebuah wave gede (primary) yang punya span > > jangka panjang. > > > > > > > > Dalam pasar bullish pasti kita dengan mudah menentukan ada di tahap mana > > karena memang penamaan tiga tahapan dalam teori DOW lebih terbayangkan > > dengan masa bullish. Nah kalo masa bearish bagaimana? Adakah nama yang lebih > > cuocokkk untuk mewakili tahapan pada masa bearish? Mungkin teman-teman ada > > ide? Atau embah? > > > > > > > > Happy investing > > > > > > > > JV > > > > > > > > *Marketwise TA: Follow the market methodology .....Re: BANDAROLOGY ST *<http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/103055;_ylc=X3oDMTJzc2U5ZXRkBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE1BGdycElkAzE2NTIzNTUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDAxNzc5BG1zZ0lkAzEwMzA1NQRzZWMDZG1zZwRzbGsDdm1zZwRzdGltZQMxMjE5NzMwMTYx> > > ** > > > > *Posted by: "jsx_consultant" [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > jsx_consultant <http://profiles.yahoo.com/jsx_consultant>* > > > > *Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:55 pm (PDT) * > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>, > > "kathleen_chuany" > > <kathleen_chuany@> wrote: > > > > > > > > > Saham nya mbah sendiri saat ini apa ? hari ini beli saham apa, mau > > > jual di berapa ? mbah suka daytrade, atau simpan seminggu atau di jual > > > kalo sudah naek say 10% mbah ?? > > > > Embah uraikan metoda Marketwise Technical untuk menjadi tool > > yang bisa dipakai secara MUDAH oleh semua orang termasuk orang > > AWAM: > > > > Dasar pemikiran Marketwise Technical: > > - Market is always right, jadi follow the market kalo mau menang. > > - Teori Dow yang mengatakan: > > - Ada wave gede (primary) yg punya span jangka panjang. > > - Ada wave dengan jangka waktu bulanan DIDALAM wave jangka > > panjang (secondary). > > - Ada wave harian (tertiary). > > - Kita cukup memerkukan NAKED graphic supaya Wave2 tsb terlihat > > JELAS. > > - Untuk memperjelas wave2 tsb, kebetulan ada tool di Metastock > > yang namanya Pitchfork indicator yg bisa digunakan > > untuk MENGIDENTIFIKASIKAN wave yg sedang terjadi. > > > > Coba liat gambar AALI yg embah gambar dengan metoda marketwise > > technical: > > > > http://www.trader2000.com/followthemarket.png > > > > - Terlihat primary wave merah yg bersifat downtrend. > > - Terlihat secondary wave biru yg mencoba mematahkan gelombang > > merah dalam bentuk reboundnya AALI. > > - Terlihat kemungkinan munculnya tetiary wave pink yg bisa > > menggangu reboundnya AALI pada wave biru. > > > > Wave yg CURRENT adalah wave biru, wave ini menggambarkan gerakan > > pasar jangka pendek, meskipun harga cpo 2 hari terakhir hancur > > berat, wave biru masih EXIST karena BD kejedut disini, yaitu > > belanja saat minyak naik. > > > > Ketika minyak turun, terbentuk wave pink yg belum sempurna bentuknya, > > jika wave pink bisa menembus wave biru dilingkaran merah 17500, > > maka wave biru menjadi LEMAH dan wave PINK menjadi makin dominan. > > > > Dengan mengindentifikasikan wave wave yg ada dengan menggunakan > > bantuan indicator pitchfork, maka kita dengan mudah untuk > > SELALU mengikuti gerakan pasar (=follow the market methodology) > > > > Cara ini benar benar mudah dipakai dan mudah DIBACA oleh orang > > biasa, dengan sarat dia percaya ama hipotesa Dow bahwa market > > bergerak dalam 3 macam gelombang diatas. > > > > 1.Primary wave untuk Investor dan secondary wave untuk menentukan > > ENTRY dan EXIT. > > 2. Secondary wave untuk trader dan tertiary wave untuk menentukan > > ENTRY dan EXIT. > > > > Dengan metoda ini, anda akan selalu MENGIKUTI MARKET yg katanya > > SELALU BENAR dengan cara yang MUDAH and SEDERHANA .... > > > > Happy FOLLOWING the market.... > > > > ... > > > > Embah > > > > > > > > > > > > -- > http://www.vividtrader.blogspot.com >
