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Iraq: When Was The Die Cast?
John Prados May 03, 2005
tompaine.com

Coming just days after the release of the original secret legal advice
given to the British government on the lack of foundation in international
law for invading Iraq, a fresh leak out of London now reveals with
stunning clarity that the goal of overthrowing Saddam Hussein was set at
least a year in advance.

Emerging in the final days before the UK's parliamentary election, a memo 
leaked to the London Sunday Times reveals that Bush decided to go to war
by April of 2002, and that by July of that same year it was clear that the
United States would fabricate the intelligence necessary to justify the
war.

The Bush administration's pious rhetoric about strengthening the United
Nations was strictly for public consumption. Its talk about alleged Iraqi
weapons of mass destruction—as Lord Goldsmith's legal opinion
demonstrates—was crucial because the only avenue offering a fig leaf of
legal justification for war was to claim to be enforcing U.N. disarmament
resolutions. And President Bush's repeated assertions that no decision had
been made about attacking Iraq were plainly false.


Decision Made: November 2001-April 2002

Military planning for Iraq actually began in November 2001, while the
campaign in Afghanistan absorbed the public's attention. In his memoirs,
American field commander General Tommy Franks tells us that on December 4,
in his very first briefing of the existing U.S. contingency plan for Iraq,
Franks told defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld that, "I am assuming the
principle objective will be to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein."
Rumsfeld replied that the president would make the ultimate decision but
that, "That is my assumption too." After several weeks of fleshing out the
preliminary concept, General Franks presented it to George W. Bush at the
president's ranch in Crawford, Texas, on December 28. At that meeting
Franks told the group that regime change and WMD removal were the working
assumptions behind his concept, with "a murmur of assent" being the
reaction of those at the table or watching the teleconference. At the end
of the presentation, Bush expressed confidence that diplomacy and
international pressure would make military action unnecessary.

Neither in his various statements to the media nor in interviews—including
those with Bob Woodward—has Bush ever recounted his evolving thinking or
detailed his actions. However, reports show that at the same time of
Frank's planning—around the end of 2001—the president signed a directive
authorizing the CIA to act against Saddam. Bush subsequently targeted Iraq
as a member of his invented "Axis of Evil" in the State of the Union
address in late January 2002. When asked on February 6, 2002, about the
administration's desire for regime change in Iraq, Secretary of State
Colin Powell replied, "We are looking at a variety of options that would
bring that about." This was the day before General Franks presented a more
detailed war plan to Bush and the National Security Council at the White
House. Bush specifically told the press on February 12, regarding his
options on Iraq, "I'll keep them close to my vest."

The following month Vice President Richard Cheney made an extensive tour
of European and Middle Eastern nations which failed to enlist much support
for action against Iraq. This made the attitude of the British a vital
question for Bush. Prime Minister Tony Blair visited the United States
early in April and met with Bush at Crawford. The latest leak from
London—in this case a briefing paper prepared for a British cabinet
meeting during the summer—show that it was at that meeting that Blair told
Bush he would support the objective of regime change in Iraq. Bush emerged
so triumphant from his encounter with the British that he blurted out—in a
comment the administration later tried to downplay—"I explained to the
prime minister that the policy of my government is the removal of Saddam."

Thus, evidence now shows that the overthrow of Saddam Hussein—included in
the earliest planning assumptions for war with Iraq—had become a firm goal
by February 2002, and would be set in concrete at Crawford in April,
almost exactly a year before U.S. troops reached Baghdad.


War In The First Resort

President Bush considered only military options for the removal of Saddam.
 This process had begun to move quickly by then, with General Franks
bringing both the Joint Chiefs of Staff and his force commanders into the
picture in March. Bush held the next key meeting at Camp David in May,
with Tony Blair's assurances in his pocket. At that conference, General
Franks notes, "I...described a series of military options to remove Saddam
Hussein from power."

Secretary Powell brought up the significant diplomatic obstacles at Camp
David, telling the group it would be difficult to line up international
support for an invasion of Iraq. Franks clearly recalls that exchange.
Domestic political support was obviously a corollary problem. This
development explains the timing of the original demand for the CIA to
assemble a document retailing claims of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction
that could be released to the public to encourage fears of Saddam. The
Senate Intelligence Committee's investigation of the Iraq intelligence
reveals that the white paper was originally requested in May 2002. Not
coincidentally, it now appears, the Blair government asked British
intelligence to begin work on a similar document at the same time.

According to the leaked minutes of Blair's cabinet meeting on July 23,
British intelligence chief Sir Richard Dearlove, just returned from talks
in Washington, told the group that "military action was now seen as
inevitable," and that "Bush wanted to remove Saddam through military
action, justified by the conjunction of terrorism and WMD." Dearlove also
remarked that "the intelligence facts were being fixed around the policy."
Both British foreign secretary Jack Straw and attorney general Lord
Goldsmith warned of the thin case for war. Tony Blair did not disagree, he
countered, telling the cabinet that "if the political context were right,
people would support regime change." That appears to be Bush's exact
calculation as well.


Cooking The Books

Thus the cooking of the books to justify the Iraq war was known at the
time, not just in Washington but in London as well. Claims that the
intelligence reporting on Iraq-both CIA and British-were simple errors of
interpretation should be considered settled. And as for Bush's
purposefulness in attacking Iraq, a Joint Chiefs of Staff "lessons
learned" study from the war shows that the president signed a national
security directive to finalize plans and deploy for the invasion at the
end of June. All this happened before any of the diplomatic activity that
the Bush administration represented as its main course of action.

In sum, to the threadbare legal justification for an aggressive war we
must add premeditation of action. If this were a homicide, the district
attorney would be considering indictment for conspiracy to murder. In
international affairs, we're told, Iraq is just some broken china on the
road to a miraculous blossoming of democracy in the Middle East. The
arrogance, audacity, and cynicism in all this is exceeded only by its
illegality. Small wonder that last week the military commander in chief
who led British forces into the Iraq war, Admiral Sir Michael Boyce, told
a correspondent of the newspaper The Observer, "If my soldiers went to
jail and I did some other people go as well with me."


John Prados is a senior fellow with the National Security Archive in
Washington, DC. He is author of Hoodwinked: The Documents That Reveal How
Bush Sold Us a War (The New Press).


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