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Melting pot of blood
With the insurgency boiling over and sectarian strife spreading, ethnic
divisions threaten to derail the new Iraqi government.

- - - - - - - - - - - -
By Juan Cole

May 6, 2005  |  Iraq's elected Parliament finally swore in a new Cabinet
on Tuesday -- yet another milestone that the Bush administration hoped
would represent a decisive turning point in its campaign to remake Iraq.
But like the toppling of Saddam's statue, the dictator's capture, the
formation of an interim government, the siege of Fallujah, the national
elections, and the formation of a new government, this latest development
offered little reason for hope that the bloody insurrection would subside.

Years ago, George Bush the elder explained why he did not push on to
Baghdad at the end of the first Gulf War: He feared the breakup of the
Iraqi state. The most dangerous fissure was and is between Iraq's majority
group, the Shiites, and the formerly ascendant Sunnis. Those divisions
have now exploded into a horrific guerrilla war in which disaffected
Sunnis increasingly target Shiites and Kurds. In the week after the
Cabinet was presented to Parliament, Sunni Arab guerrillas went on a
bombing spree that left some 200 dead and hundreds more wounded. The Bush
administration had hoped that the new, elected government would attract
the loyalty of alienated Iraqis, and that as a result the guerrilla war
would wind down. Instead, Sunnis are furious that their representation on
the Cabinet is still unclear and that their suggestions for Cabinet
members have been rejected by Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari.

The massive suicide bombing that killed 60 and wounded 150 at a police
recruitment station in Irbil Wednesday morning was only one of a string of
deadly assaults signaling the resolve of the Sunni Arab guerrillas to keep
fighting. While some of the attacks were carried out by fundamentalist
holy warriors ("jihadis"), the bulk are probably the work of Baath
military men. A Col. Zajay, a Shiite police official in south Baghdad,
told the London Times last week, "We have lots of information that the
Baathists are regrouping ... They think they can take power again."

President Bush, as usual, tried to put the best possible light on the
situation, saying in his April 28 news conference that he believes "we're
making really good progress in Iraq" and praising the new government for
exemplifying "unity in diversity." Many Iraqis, shell-shocked by the
bloody attacks and the unraveling of the Iraqi social fabric, begged to
differ. In addition to the massive bombing campaign that greeted the
formation of the new government, sectarian strife continued in the mixed
Sunni-Shiite areas south of Baghdad. In another alarming development,
major rioting broke out Tuesday and Wednesday at Baghdad University
between Shiite and Sunni students and professors.

When the Cabinet was presented to Parliament on April 28, only 185 members
(out of 274) showed up to vote it into office, and Sunni Arab officials
were clearly frustrated and disappointed that so many key posts reserved
for Sunnis had not yet been filled. Eleven small Sunni parties had formed
a National Dialogue Council to negotiate with Jaafari and to put forward
candidates for positions. The Sunnis had demanded seven ministries,
including the powerful post of minister of defense. But only a few of the
ministries allotted to the Sunni Arabs were filled by Prime Minister
Jaafari before he took the Cabinet to Parliament. Sunni Arabs expected to
get defense, human rights, and industry and minerals, but those posts were
filled by acting ministers.

Among the major Sunni Arab players, the rotund Vice President Ghazi
al-Yawer called the new Cabinet, with its holes where Sunnis should be,
"disappointing" and "sectarian." An official of the Iraqi Islamic Party
said that the Cabinet did not represent Iraq and therefore could not usher
in national reconciliation. He complained of its "racist" character. He
said that all of the candidates suggested by his party for Cabinet posts
had been rejected.

The Association of Muslim Scholars, a hard-line Sunni group with extensive
ties to the guerrillas, responded to the Cabinet by saying that there is
no hope of peace in Iraq until the United States withdraws its forces. In
his Friday prayers sermon at the Umm al-Qura mosque in west Baghdad,
Shaikh Hareth al-Ubaidi criticized the new government of Ibrahim Jaafari
as having "marginalized the Sunnis." He also ridiculed the talk that a
Sunni Arab would be appointed "minister of tourism."

Sunni Arabs constitute about 4 million of Iraq's population of 25 million
and predominate in Baghdad and its western and northern hinterlands. They
had been the elite of the country in the 20th century, and they dominated
the upper reaches of the civilian bureaucracy and the officer corps, as
well as being large landlords and entrepreneurs. Under Saddam Hussein, the
Baath Party became an important source of wealth and patronage for Sunni
Arabs, the top leadership of which kept Kurds and the majority Shiites
politically marginalized.

The new government was seen as a threat by the guerrilla movement, which
indulged in an orgy of bloodletting. On Friday, as April ended, guerrillas
detonated four bombs in the relatively well-off and famously pious Sunni
quarter of Azamiyah in the capital, killing 20. They also struck in
Madaen, where they used the technique of setting an explosion to attract
police and Iraqi army troops, and then detonating more bombs when the
police and military arrived, killing 13. Altogether, guerrillas killed 50
and wounded 114. They struck again on Saturday, setting off five bombs in
Baghdad that killed 11 and wounded 40. They also targeted a building
belonging to the National Dialogue Council in a bid to make it stop
negotiating with others.

On Sunday, the guerrillas set off five bombs in Baghdad, killing six and
wounding 40. But they also attempted to demonstrate their range, striking
at a funeral for a slain Kurdish official in the northern city of Telafar.
They killed 30 and wounded 50, mainly northern Kurds. On Monday they were
at it again, killing 29. Then after a lighter day on Tuesday, they hit
Irbil. The constant violence, much of it targeting Shiites or Kurds,
refuses to subside.

Frantic negotiations between Jaafari and the Sunni Arabs attempting to
make a deal led to an expectation that when the smoke cleared on Tuesday,
Jaafari would have a complete Cabinet and would have the Sunni Arabs
aboard. Negotiations appear to have broken down, however, because the
Sunnis presented as candidates persons who were too close to the Baath
Party. Vice President al-Yawer sullenly boycotted the festivities, as did
most other Sunni Arab movers and shakers. The Associated Press quoted
Mishaan Juburi, a Sunni parliamentarian that many Shiites see as having
been too close to Saddam in the old days. He said, "If al-Yawer [had]
attended the ceremony, it would have been the end of him politically."

Iraq thus enters the new world of elected government with a great deal of
suspicion being expressed about ethnicity. The new Shiite leadership was
threatening to purge ex-Baathists from the military and intelligence
fields. Sunni Arab leaders complained that the Shiites had not kept their
promise to give the Sunni Arabs a position in the new government that was
appropriate to them. Political scientist Nabil Muhammad Salim of Baghdad
University told the Arabic press, "Jaafari demonstrated great flexibility
in the negotiations, but his colleagues put enormous pressure on him."
Likewise, he said, the Sunnis insisted on some names at a time when they
should have shown more flexibility. (The Sunni Arabs are said to have put
forward ex-Baath officers for several posts whom the Shiites found
completely unacceptable.) The Arabic press reported that Jaafari called on
those ex-Baathists whose hands were not stained with blood to express
their contrition (for having been Baathists) and to begin a dialogue with
the new government.

The most dramatic instance of Sunni-Shiite conflict this past week
concerns the death of Baghdad University student Masar Sarhan. He joyously
threw a party when Ibrahim Jaafari was sworn in as prime minister. A
member of the Shiite Dawa Party, Sarhan was expressing his solidarity with
his party, which had won the office of prime minister for the first time
ever. He was gunned down by three assassins. In reaction, Shiite students
rioted on Tuesday, attacking Sunni Arab students and professors, whom they
blamed for Sarhan's death.

In the meantime, Sunni-Shiite violence continued in a number of hot spots.
In the mixed neighborhood of Doura in southern Baghdad, guerrillas
constantly target Shiites for killings. They especially go after Sayyids,
or those who claim descent from the Prophet Muhammad. In Suwaira near
Madaen, police pulled 40 bodies out of a river, most of them Shiite.
Mourning family members blamed Sunni guerrillas for the deaths. Rumors had
earlier circulated that Shiite hostages would be killed in Madaen, and
many Iraqis were convinced that the bodies recovered were those of Shiite
victims of Sunni barbarity. The new, Shiite governor of Najaf, challenged
Sunni clerics to rein in their adherents and warned that if the
provocations continued, Shiites would take the law into their own hands.

The entire Bush administration-driven political process since last
November has worked at odds with its own goals. The U.S. military attack
on Fallujah enraged most Sunni Arabs and spread the guerrilla war to
previously quiet cities such as Mosul. As a result most Sunni Arabs were
not able to vote or were too angry to do so. Sunnis ended up with only 17
seats in the 275-member Parliament. Attempts to put them in the new
Cabinet have produced new wrangling and delays and bitterness. The Sunni
question in Iraq is now on the front burner. Given all the explosives
still missing in Iraq, that is a dangerous place for it to be.


Juan Cole is a professor of modern Middle Eastern and South Asian history
at the University of Michigan and the author of "Sacred Space and Holy
War" (IB Tauris, 2002).

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