FYI, comrades. Doug -- Doug Henwood [[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Left Business Observer 250 W 85 St New York NY 10024-3217 USA +1-212-874-4020 voice +1-212-874-3137 fax ---------- >Date: Wed, 22 Mar 1995 13:00:46 -0500 >Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >Originator: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >Sender: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >Precedence: bulk >From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >Subject: LA TIMES NATIONAL POLL (ANALYSIS) > >PART 1 > >ANAYSIS > >The following is an analysis of selected results of the latest Los Angeles >Times National survey. If you have any questions regarding this release, as >always, feel free to E-Mail me at: > >[EMAIL PROTECTED] >or >[EMAIL PROTECTED] > >Sincerely, > >Rob Cioe >LA Times > > > >**********************LA TIMES POLL ALERT******************** > >FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MARCH >21, 1995 > > Americans Uncertain About GOP Hill Programs > > But Republican policies still fare better than Clinton's, Times Poll >finds. > > Dole leads all announced Republicans in presidential race; beats Clinton >as well. > > > Americans remain ambivalent and uninformed about the Republican revolution >on Capitol Hill, but favor GOP policies over those of President Clinton >nonetheless, according to a new nationwide Times poll. > > The survey of 1,285 adults taken March 15-19 portrays a public reluctant >to take a hard and fast stand about doings on Capitol Hill. Most know little >about the GOP agenda and are wary of some of its details. > > Even so, Republicans maintain more political momentum than Clinton or the >Democrats, as they have since January. > > On the presidential politics front, Kansas Sen. Bob Dole enjoys a wide >lead over all other announced challengers in the race for the 1996 Republican >presidential nomination. Dole leads Clinton in a hypothetical general >election horserace among all registered voters, but the President would best >Gramm if the two were pitted against each other now. > >DETAILS - Despite monumental changes in Washington over the last few months, >public opinion - and the political landscape - seem to have changed very >little since the beginning of the year. On questions where we have findings >to compare with two Times polls done in January, results are barely altered: > > --Clinton's job rating stands at 50% approve and 45% disapprove. In late >January those numbers were 49% and 44%. Forty-seven percent approve of >Clinton's handling of the economy, the same as in January. > > --In January, when asked what effect the new GOP Congress would have on >the country, 32% said they expected things would be better while 18% expected >worse and 39% anticipated little difference because of the GOP takeover. Now >the numbers look very much the same: 31% say ''better,'' 19% "worse" and 42% >expect little change. > > The poll shows little heartfelt enthusiasm for the new Republican program; >indeed on the baseline question a lackluster 43% approve of what the >congressional GOP is doing while 33% disapprove and 24% remain unsure. >Confidence in Congress has not improved since January with only 13% >expressing a great deal or a lot, down slightly from 17% in January. Even >among Republicans only 28% have a lot of faith in Congress. > > Americans divide on the question of how much progress the GOP Congress is >making in getting its program through: 48% say at least a good amount but 45% >say not much or none at all. And when asked to name the things the >Republicans in Congress are trying to do, a 57% majority - including 51% of >self-described Republicans - cannot name one. The largest single answer - >mentioned by only 9% - is that the GOP is trying to cut federal spending and >the size of government. Another 7% cite the attempt to pass the balanced >budget amendment. Five percent say welfare reform. > > When queried, in another open-ended question, about which parts of the >Republican program they'd like to see passed, 31% indicate they can't think >of one while another 24% say ''none.'' > > So much of the GOP's current image seems not to be based on some detailed >assessment of what Hill leaders are doing. But uninformed opinion is not >necessarily weak opinion, and the Republicans still seem to have the >advantage over Clinton and the Democrats at this point. > > On two questions pitting the Democrats and Clinton against the GOP and >Congress, results have shifted only within sampling error since January and >still favor the Republicans. By 39% to 32%, the public picks the GOP over the >Democrats as the party better suited to handle the country's problems. In >January the numbers were 38% and 31%. On a similar question matching Clinton >specifically against the congressional GOP on ideas, the latter beat the >President 45% to 34%. In January a similar 41% picked the GOP Congress; 33% >Clinton. > > Notably, there is little evidence that the public - informed or not - >thinks Republicans are drifting too much to the ideological right - or going >overboard on cutting federal spending. One in-4 (24%) call the congressional >GOP program too conservative for their tastes but three-fifths of that group >are Democrats. And the 24% figure is substantially smaller than the 34% who >feel Clinton's views are too liberal. > > A big 46% plurality still thinks the GOP has not gone far enough in >cutting federal spending, more than 3 times the 14% who think they have gone >too far. And, though some GOPers have shown recalcitrance on the issue of >term limits, by 52% to 35%, the public still thinks the Republicans are >generally trying hard to fulfill their 1994 campaign promises rather than >going back on many of them. > > One warning sign for the GOP: a 53% majority does think the party favors >the rich, compared with just 14% who feel it favors the middle class and 27% >who feel it's looking out for all groups. > > And, as in January, Republicans also still come up short when the public >is asked about the details of some of their programs, suggesting they could >face more trouble if the public does concentrate more on their plans. >Specifically, the public divides (48% approve and 45% disapprove) over a >proposed mandatory 5-year cap on welfare for families without the promise of >a job after that time. Americans tilt against (by 44% to 39%) the concept of >a one-year moratorium on new federal regulation, when the suggestion that >consumer-related regulations may be affected is included in the question >wording. Most importantly, perhaps, by 59% to 35%, the public says talk about >cutting federal taxes right now is unrealistic (even Republicans and >conservatives divide on this question.) Indeed, twice as many (40%) put >deficit reduction as a top economic priority as pick tax cuts (20%) right >now. Among Republicans and conservatives the sentiment for cutting red ink >first is even greater. > > The GOP does score a clear policy victory in one area: crime. By 54% to >38%, Americans go along with the Republican suggestion that localities should >be given discretion over how to spend federal crime money rather than being >compelled to to spend those funds on police, as the 1994 Democratic crime >bill had stipulated. > >DOLE LEADS GOP FIELD - Kansas Sen. Bob Dole has an enormous early lead in the >race for the 1996 Republican presidential nomination, according to The Times >Poll. Among registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents polled >nationwide, Dole is the choice of 52% of those surveyed, with Texas Sen. Phil >Gramm a distant second at 17%. Former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander is the >top choice of 7%, columnist Pat Buchanan has 4%, while California Rep. Bob >Dornan, Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar, Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter and >prospective candidate Gov. Pete Wilson of California all get 2%. Twelve >percent of potential Republican voters are undecided. > > Dole has a wide lead over Gramm among both conservative (48% to 22%) and >more moderate (65% to 9%) Republican voters. The Kansan leads in all parts of >the country, including the South where he's the choice of 49% of leaned >registered Republicans to 16% for Alexander and only 13% for Gramm. > > On the Democratic side, 63% of registered Democrats and >Democratic-leaning independents say they prefer Bill Clinton's renomination >in 1996. This includes 67% of potential liberal primary voters and 60% of >moderate/conservative ones. Among white Democratic voters, 63% prefer a >Clinton renomination while 71% of blacks do. > >DOLE OVER CLINTON; CLINTON OVER GRAMM - In head-to head match-ups, the poll >finds Dole would best Clinton 52% to 44% among all registered voters, while >the President would beat Gramm by 48% to 41%. The difference is less due to >Clinton's support (which changes only 4 points between the two races) than it >is to relative play between the Republican candidate and the undecided. In >the case of the Clinton/Dole race, the don't know is only 3%, but in the >Clinton/Gramm contest it is 11%. This no doubt partially reflects the higher >name recognition enjoyed by Dole relative to Gramm. Even among Republicans, >who Dole carries 96% to 4% over the President, 10% are undecided in Gramm's >case with 12% defecting to the President and 78% backing Gramm. Dole wins 40% >of moderates while Gramm gets only 28%. > > Among all voters, Clinton's generic reelect remains dismal, with 40% >inclined to vote him in again and 53% tilting or definitely planning a vote >against him. This is, again, little changed from the 37%/48% ratio measured >in late January. > >PESSIMISM - The President may face another problem in his attempt to solidify >his political position: a possible stall in the economic recovery. In this >poll, economic ratings are slightly worse than in January, with 45% saying >the economy is no longer in recession. That number was 49% two months ago. >Moreover, just 30% now believe the country is going in the right direction, > down from 37% at the beginning of the year. > >FOSTER - By 41% to 27%, Americans lean toward the confirmation of Surgeon >General nominee Dr. Henry Foster, though a big 32% remain undecided on the >nomination. Foster's nomination is generally favored by Democrats and >independents, liberals and moderates, and opposed by Republicans and >conservatives. Whites narrowly favor confirmation (38% to 30%;) blacks favor >it by a larger 47% to 19% margin. > >HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED > > The Times Poll interviewed 1,285 adults nationwide, by telephone, March >15 through 19. The sample includes 1,007 registered voters. Telephone numbers >were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing >techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be >contacted. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. The sample was >weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and >education. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus >3 percentage points; for registered voters it is plus or minus 4 points. >Certain other sub-groups may have a higher sampling error. Poll results can >also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in >which questions are presented. > > > >(END) Doug -- Doug Henwood [[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Left Business Observer 250 W 85 St New York NY 10024-3217 USA +1-212-874-4020 voice +1-212-874-3137 fax
