BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 1996 RELEASED TODAY: The U.S. Import Price Index rose 0.4 percent in October. The increase followed a 1.1 percent advance in September and was attributable to a continuing rise in petroleum prices. In contrast, prices for non-petroleum imports resumed a downward trend last month. The U.S. Export Price Index, led by an ongoing decline in agricultural prices, fell 0.3 percent in October, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decrease .... Ninety-five percent of employers responding to the Bureau of National Affair's annual survey of year-end holiday practices will grant paid holidays for both Christmas Day and New Year's Day in 1996-97, and 54 percent have scheduled at least one additional paid day off during the holiday season. The findings are based on responses from human resource and employee relations executives representing 375 employers ....(Daily Labor Report, pages 2,C-1). __Claims for unemployment insurance benefits rose by 17,000, seasonally adjusted, to 344,000 in the week ended Nov. 16, the Department of Labor's Employment and Training Administration announced ....(Daily Labor Report, page D-1). __New claims for jobless benefits rose to the highest level since July 13, the Labor Department said. Analysts had predicted that filings would rise only to 332,000 ....(Washington Post, page B12; New York Times, page D6). __Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged surprisingly last week. Does this mean the job picture is dimming? asks the Wall Street Journal (page A2). Somewhat, analysts said. But the weekly jobless claim report generally bounces around a lot and needs to be put into perspective. Here's what to look for: When claims fall below 300,000, many people are finding work, the labor market is tight as a drum, and the economy is clearly accelerating, says an economist of CS First Boston. When claims climb above 400,000, he said, an uncomfortably large number of people are finding themselves unemployed, and the economy is in trouble. But when claims fall somewhere in between, interpretations get murky. The only solution is to look for the long-term trend .... A recent string of weak economic reports has some experts wondering whether a business slowdown -- or even something worse -- may lie ahead in 1997, says USA Today (page 1B). Among the signs: a bigger- than-expected drop in home construction, tepid retail revenue, falling auto sales, declining industrial production, and a sudden drop in U.S. exports. All this has some economists marking down their estimates of economic growth in the fourth quarter and contemplating doing the same to their 1997 forecasts ....The strength of the U.S. economy in the coming year will depend heavily on the willingness of consumers to boost spending. But there are signs that consumers are turning more cautious about their finances as the crucial holiday shopping season gets under way ....
