Max Sawicky asked (about NAIRU),
>That's seems like a pretty bold prediction.
>What makes you say it?
I don't want to quarrel with Jim Devine's useful discussion of the
distinction between NAIRU and NRU. Somewhere, buried in this mountain of
scraps of paper with notes on them I've got a reference to an article that
catalogued the various species of NAIRU. As I recall there is not a single
NAIRU theory but six vague and incomplete versions, each borrowing
haphazardly parts from some of the others to fill in its own gaps and
inconsistencies. Maybe there's as many versions of NRU. I think it was
Nietszche who used the expression, "mobile army of metaphors".
As a metaphysical concept, I've got no more problem with NAIRU than I do
with angels dancing on the heads of pins. It's as a guide to policy that I
predict the rats will soon desert the NAIRU ship -- and it won't be for
technical or theoretical reasons. I've got a deadline that I'm working to on
another issue, so I can't go into a detailed analysis of my speculation on
NAIRU, other than to say that NAIRU ruled only so long as it seemed to
underpin a pragmatic policy direction (TINA) that business and governments
were already inclined to follow for political, not economic, reasons. It
wasn't the theory (theories) that drove the policies, but the policies that
sought out the theory for self-justification.
Jerry Levy will no doubt be amazed at how quickly the ideologues will start
singing another tune when the bandwagon starts rolling in the other
direction. Remember what happened in the so-called East Bloc a decade ago?
Repeat over and over to yourself: "It can't happen here. It can't happen
here." Feel better?
BUT, don't ask what direction the bandwagon is going to start rolling in or
what the new tune is going to be. All I know is the old one's come to it's
last refrain.
Regards,
Tom Walker
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