I just had an idea about the job tenure debate, prompted by this latest
BLS report (thanks!). Perhaps the churning has increased primarily in
the primary sector, where hanging on to your job is more important, and
in which there have been traditional expectations of greater tenure. If
churning has remained constant in the secondary sector, or even
decreased somewhat, this would moderate the overall picture. If I had
the data in front of me -- and, above all, the time -- I would want to
separate out changes in turnover over time by some indicator or index of
labor market status. For instance, has turnover increased in large
firms? In industries with positive interindustry wage differentials?
For workers who, in the previous year, had positive errors in their wage
regressions? Etc. Just a thought....
Peter Dorman
