This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand this format, some or all of this message may not be legible. ------ =_NextPart_000_01BD2CA4.CEE25500 When I wrote this I did think of the mark & the yen. I rejected the yen on the grounds that Japan's financial structure is too shaky, too many banks would be bankrupt if they had to go through a U.S. style audit. I had not realized that the Bundesbank had backed off on interest rates. I had thought that they were forcing recession at home as well as in France and other countries ahead of the final decision on the Euro. So perhaps the plan is to make the mark into much more of an international currency. The question for the global economy is then whether Germany, with or without the EC, is willing to assume the role of the U.S. as the consumer of last resort. Dave ---------- Sent: Wednesday, January 28, 1998 6:15 PM To: pen-l Subject: Re: Bear Market? (Formerly Japan's MoF) On Wed, 28 Jan 1998, Richardson_D wrote: > Thus we get to the question as to what to replace it [the U.S. dollar as > world reserve currency] with. This is a > very hard question for the individual but also for the monetary > authorities -- there just aren't many currencies out there that look > good just now. The yen and DM are a bit undervalued right now, mostly because their central banks are more concerned with propping up the global financial system -- which, incidentally, they own -- via superlow interest rates (yes, at 2.2% GDP growth, 1.7% inflation and 3.3% short rates, even the Bundesbank has turned stimulative) than with stuffing the portfolios of their rentiers. But consider this: Central Europe plus Japan gives you $10 trillion of GDP and $20 trillion of rocksolid financial assets -- or at least, solider than the US, which amounts to the same thing. How about a caffeinated blend of the euro and the yen -- the "yeuron"? -- Dennis ------ =_NextPart_000_01BD2CA4.CEE25500 b3NvZnQgTWFpbC5Ob3RlADEIAQWAAwAOAAAAzgcBAB0ACwADAAEABAAGAQEggAMADgAAAM4HAQAd AAoAOgASAAQATQEBCYABACEAAAAwQzI3NUM1ODhEOThEMTExODg4RTAwMjBBRjlDMDMwOAACBwEE gAEAKAAAAEZXOiBCZWFyIE1hcmtldD8gKEZvcm1lcmx5IEphcGFuJ3MgTW9GKQC7DAENgAQAAgAA AAIAAgABA5AGABQJAAAdAAAAAwAuAAAAAABAADkAcKokYM8svQEeAHAAAQAAACgAAABGVzogQmVh ciBNYXJrZXQ/IChGb3JtZXJseSBKYXBhbidzIE1vRikAAgFxAAEAAAAWAAAAAb0szutPWFwnDZiN EdGIjgAgr5wDCAAAHgAxQAEAAAANAAAAUklDSEFSRFNPTl9EAAAAAAMAGkAAAAAAHgAwQAEAAAAN AAAAUklDSEFSRFNPTl9EAAAAAAMAGUAAAAAAAgEJEAEAAAAjBgAAHwYAAAsKAABMWkZ1Usl0Yf8A CgEPAhUCpAPkBesCgwBQEwNUAgBjaArAc2V07jIGAAbDAoMyA8YHEwKDxjMDxQIAcHJxEiATiPo0 Ew19CoAIzwnZAoAKgYMNsQtgbmcxMDMUIEcLChQiAdAgV2gJ8CAISSB3A2B0ZSB0RmgEABshZGlk G6JucGsgb2YboRuQAMBylRygJhzjeQnwLiAbIf0XkGoFkBuAHEIdwxywA6BnHPIJwAhgbmQEIBuw YUkFQEphCrBuJwQgZgsLgABwYwcxIHN0ch51HqAIcBuQG9F0b29jIcARwGt5LCKTA4F5VCBiAHBr BCB3CGBs/RxAYhuQI+Ih8AUxBpAc4u8jwBHAHEEiwGciwBuwH/EAZ2ggYSBVLlOTHhAh0HlsG5Bh dRwgdnQeEyXibhtwHlEHQGnueh7DIIEc8kIgEQeQI+LzJdMj4GNrHsEcwBzQH3H/C4AbgBeQIdAe UCCAB5AoJ98bsCayKbIppCPAdywRISDvBbAhgBlAHlFjB5AAkB9xnyCBLWAHgCbwJCFlbAMg8zBh C4AgRixwIXAnsSAg/xywHPEFwAWgIBAh4AiQBCD+YRrwJfEcxSEyAyAFgQQAyy+iH3VFCHBvLgqF CoXaUyLAcASQEcBwIEIbkP8LUSvBIoIdISswHOgr4SNx/yIAJuAEYCJBHME3YivyIVB2dC+hIaFj CHAXkCFwefUeEVQdAXEKUCHQL6Iuwb8flBcgI+ADIAWRKLBtI8DbInIa8nca8DIDRwSQI5L/IzAD 8BuwHLAFwD+CCGAptPxFQyMwG9ED8DCwLwImIfkwYHN1MDEc8gNgJ6Ecxf8nIzBhHPI9gUICBcAc wQtgDyxCB5AXMTVtRGF2ZUc1fAr0KSAxNDQC0WmeLUgTDNBIEwtZMTYKoPMbYh6gIC1KtwqHSWsM nnU5gSZQHgAJgHVdS1/fTG0GYAIwTZ9Oq1cJgFHQmHNkYSMhILBudQrACSPAMjgjMDE5OTgAIDY6 MTUgUE1zUs9MbVRvVQ9OqzaAbswtbFkfU951Yh6CWz/3TqtQAF/QQikABcEdQRIAsD8gKEYFsERh bCPA4SC2TW9GKUa/CygS8u0MAWMN4Uo2TwOgVuEjMM9YEFeCWEMjMFJpEbIgMKkCIF9EG0Q6NXw+ O6H+dTByH9ASACYSHPI790Oi/yLAPnApoiLAF5ALUTGBKAD0IFtDF2QG8AtgBcAwYP9p9yRAYyAc QCwhBJBGkDr33l0/czuDG9Eb0WFp90aQ31fhaII77yvRHCB2HDBXwP0DIGJAUQdARUA8d1AxEgD/ V9Fp9yfQLVEFEDqQB5FKsLsc4iJBamqgdSE7MScFQH8jkzsFMrJARSJBIGMXIG++a2n3JlAEcHhk KLB3HhHPNXw7sh8yMbJETXiyJvF+Ym2hKiJwMAdAClBv0Wl/LZJ8kSMwBGAh0GMxJKBj5yfQEfAc 4mlyZJUvYDKB/3TSI/N+wjlzPYEvYASgHsHzP4NKMXBwLwIlIDy6ITfJZJVzeSHQZW130j5w/2hh QOEhcQ2wAjAHQGMwIzH/JaJ8oAOgd+F0kCcAQgA2gX8XIAfgK+dklSxzYrAd4HNDIzAggTIuMiU+ 4ESaUB/SdxuwWDEuN4zwjwuAGRFr9DHBMy4zjPDvIuAXMYtqIzBlRpAfhCobfyBBCHCEUjwhOSCO UkaQKe8gUj5RP5Ih0HUN0C8BZJX/NwMXMQIQKSCA4By1gfAeUf8CMAiRLLEqEAVARBKIkTyi+wQA X9BDgpU1IjaANzFqoF9klSCzH9CS8QQgeQhgIP4kGWAboAUQQVE0ghzQjRL9MbIkGrGbCgNgKyBF QCkg/mRklSE4QeESAHfDBbF68n8pACHQIzCdg5eTA5FDE1N/P2GIAibwBGAycSKClGlz76IAG5MZ QB4QSIqhAaBAQv8nAIFgDdCB4DpxHsECYAnwfTM3ZTUxMaMe9ks3HPIi8x3gNTFuImKgNXx34U90 X2QvGd5KJ6rFFrEAraAAAwDxPwkEAAADAP0/5AQAAAMAJgAAAAAAAwA2AAAAAAACAUcAAQAAADAA AABjPVVTO2E9IDtwPUJMUztsPURDUENTTUFJTDEtOTgwMTI5MTYwMzAxWi0xOTQ1NwAeADhAAQAA AA0AAABSSUNIQVJEU09OX0QAAAAAHgA5QAEAAAANAAAAUklDSEFSRFNPTl9EAAAAAEAABzBQzSRg zyy9AUAACDDQOSS3ziy9AR4APQABAAAABQAAAEZXOiAAAAAAHgAdDgEAAAAkAAAAQmVhciBNYXJr ZXQ/IChGb3JtZXJseSBKYXBhbidzIE1vRikAHgA1EAEAAABAAAAAPEUxNkVFQTRDRTlDN0QwMTE5 QUU0MDA2MDk3MDVDRDg4MzM5NkQyQGRjcGNzbWFpbDEucHNiLmJscy5nb3Y+AAsAKQAAAAAACwAj AAAAAAADAAYQGBadzAMABxCmBQAAAwAQEAAAAAADABEQAAAAAB4ACBABAAAAZQAAAFdIRU5JV1JP VEVUSElTSURJRFRISU5LT0ZUSEVNQVJLJlRIRVlFTklSRUpFQ1RFRFRIRVlFTk9OVEhFR1JPVU5E U1RIQVRKQVBBTlNGSU5BTkNJQUxTVFJVQ1RVUkVJU1RPT1MAAAAAAgF/AAEAAABAAAAAPEUxNkVF QTRDRTlDN0QwMTE5QUU0MDA2MDk3MDVDRDg4MzM5NkQyQGRjcGNzbWFpbDEucHNiLmJscy5nb3Y+ ACK+ ------ =_NextPart_000_01BD2CA4.CEE25500--
