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BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, APRIL 6, 1998
___Five consecutive months of extraordinary job growth came to an abrupt
halt in March as the U.S. economy lost 36,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, BLS
reports. It was the first time since January 1996 that the economy
failed to create new jobs, but private economists and BLS said the
weather most likely was to blame and that moderate-to-strong job growth
should continue into the near future ....The nation's unemployment rate
also edged up 0.1 percentage point, to 4.7 percent in March ....The
economy had been producing an average of 345,000 jobs a month from
October through February, a rate that most economists believed was not
sustainable. BLS also revised downward February's job growth from its
initial estimate of 310,000 to 252,000 ....The failure of the economy to
create new jobs in March was largely due to a sharp drop in construction
hiring ....Many construction workers are laid off in the winter as the
weather becomes cold and building projects stop, but an unusually mild
winter attributable to El Nino kept many on the job, so there will be
fewer openings in the industry this spring, BLS Commissioner Katharine
G. Abraham said at a press briefing ....(Daily Labor Report, page D-1).
___A five-month string of very strong gains in payroll jobs was
unexpectedly broken by a drop of 36,000 workers, a decline that many
analysts said signaled a long-awaited downshift in the pace of economic
growth ....BLS Commissioner Abraham said that because of the distortions
related to weather, "The report is hard to interpret. But it is a
weaker report than we have seen recently. The last five months had been
extremely strong" ....(Washington Post, April 4, page E1).
___After months in overdrive, the great American jobs engine seems
suddenly to be idling ....Even though most economists were expecting job
growth to moderate, the sharply different job market picture conveyed
caught them by complete surprise. The Labor Department warned, however,
that the report was somewhat suspect. The dip in jobs may reflect the
abnormal weather patterns of the last few months more than actual
changes in the labor market ....Abraham, Commissioner of BLS, said,
"There's a lot in this report that you have to discount" ....(New York
Times, April 4, page B1).
___Economy shows weather-related drop in jobs ....(Wall Street Journal,
page A2).
BLS plans to change its method of computing average hourly earnings and
average weekly hours data series to smooth out monthly fluctuations
caused by the different ways businesses report the raw data. Research
by BLS showed that both series indicated stronger growth in shorter
months (with 20 or 21 weekdays) than in longer months (22 or 23
weekdays). Beginning with May data reported in June, BLS will
seasonally adjust the data to account for monthly length variations
.....Respondents that pay workers on a semi-monthly or monthly basis are
reporting the data in a fixed fashion and not varying it with the number
of days in a month, said BLS economist Shelia McConnell. In converting
the data without adjustment for the varying length of each month, BLS
caused these monthly peaks and valleys, she said ....(Daily Labor
Report, page A-8).
Not since the early 1970s have America's employers scrambled as much as
they have in recent months to find workers ....Far more than in the
1970s, companies are using other recruiting tactics to dilute wage
pressures. In previous periods of economic growth, the wages of most
workers rose early in the upturn. This time, the opposite happened; the
median weekly wage, adjusted for inflation, fell in each of the first
five years of the recovery, rising modestly for the first time in 1997,
according to Labor Department figures ....Corporations say they have no
choice -- they cannot raise prices as easily as in the past, and they
must sustain profits ....What no economist or policy maker can know is
how long companies can fill hundreds of thousands of new jobs and also
resist bigger wage increases, which could squeeze profits. Perhaps a
slowing economy will bail them out, easing the demand for workers and
raising the unemployment rate ....Still, there are big pockets of
potential workers that have yet to be reached ....(New York Times, April
6, page A1).
Job-hopping is typical in an enormous subset of the work force -- young,
skilled workers who are open to new opportunities. As a result of
corporate downsizing, vanishing employer-employee loyalty, and a
fast-paced work world, these Generation X workers are willing to move
from company to company with little thought to the future, workplace
experts say. Often, these experts say, they don't stop to consider what
harm that may do to their future earnings. A new report suggests they
don't have to. A federally funded study conducted by Ohio State
University found that workers who jump from job to job early in their
careers aren't jeopardizing their earnings potential as they get older,
especially men ....The study included 2,844 people as part of the
National Longitudinal Survey of Youth ....Nevertheless, some experts
caution that there are some very tangible reasons to stick with one
company for a long time. "Under some circumstances there are
unambiguous advantages to long tenure," said Jay Meisenheimer, an
economist with BLS. Most of those advantages involve benefits.
Vacation time is almost always based on seniority, Meisenheimer said.
In addition, defined-benefit pension plans are bolstered over time and
401(k)-style retirement plans reap the benefits of steady, longtime
investments and employer contributions, he said. But a better-paying
job often can more than make up for these losses, Meisenheimer
acknowledged. "It all comes down to finding a good match," he said.
"Not everyone can find that on their first try, so a change can help"
.....(Washington Post, April 5, page H4).
The consensus forecast for the March PPI is for a decline of 0.1
percent, the same as in February (Wall Street Journal, page A5).
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