[PEN-L:4126] BLS Daily Report

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BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, MARCH  3, 1999

The index of leading economic indicators increased sharply in January,
indicating robust economic growth for the first half of the year, the
Conference Board reports.  After a 0.2 percent December increase, the
composite index of leading indicators shot up 0.5 percent in January to
106.9 percent. ...  The average factory workweek was the only negative
contributor to the index in January. ...  (Daily Labor Report, page
D-1)_____Rising stock prices and an increase in orders at the nation's
factories carried a key gauge of future economic activity higher in January,
signaling that the U.S. economy will continue to thrive, at least through
midyear. ...  (Washington Post, page E2).

New home sales fell in January for the second straight month, the Commerce
Department said, but nonetheless were very strong. ...  With mortgage rates
remaining under 7 percent and jobs plentiful, at least so far this year,
most economists expect robust new home sales in 1999, but not quite as
strong as the record 887,000 for all of 1998 (Washington Post, page
E2)_____Sales of new homes fell more than expected in January, as harsh
winter weather stalled buying in the Midwest.  Even so, January's pace of
sales was the third strongest ever. ...  (New York Times, page C2).

Most major auto makers reported record sales for February.  Auto makers are
also increasing their  forecasts for this year's vehicle sales. ...  (New
York Times, page C2; Wall Street Journal, page A2)_____Surprising industry
watchers and the manufacturers themselves, February turn out to be a
record-setting month for auto sales and set a pace to make 1999 the best
selling year in history.  A strong economy, low vehicle prices, hot new
products, and the popularity of trucks - pickups, sport utility vehicles,
and minivans - fueled February sales. ...  (Washington Post, page E1).

The U.S. economy will grow at 3 percent in 1999 and 2.3 percent in the year
2000, coming in for a "soft landing" from the 3.9 percent growth posted in
1998, according to a survey of 34 professional economic forecasters by the
National Association for Business Economics.  Most of the forecasters
responded to strength in November's economic data by revising upward their
estimates for 1999 economic growth since the association's last outlook in
November. ...  "But half the economists in the survey remain committed to
the view that GDP growth will slow to a 2 to 2.7 percent rate by the year
2000, and all of the GDP growth forecasts for the year 2000 lie in a
slightly wider 1.7 to 3.1 percent range," according to the outlook. ...
NABE linked the stronger forecasts with the small downward revisions in
forecasts for inflation in 1999.  The economists predict that inflation will
rise modestly from 1.6 percent in 1998 to 2 percent in 1999 and 2.3 percent
in 2000.  Unemployment is expected to remain low as well, maintaining in
1999 the 4.5 percent rate recorded in 1998 and rising slightly to 4.7
percent in 2000.  Survey respondents expect exports to rise by 3.7 percent
in 1999, versus the "anemic" 1.5 percent gain in 1998, according to the
outlook. ...  (Daily Labor Report, page A-2)_____The nation's leading
business economists predicted - again - that the U.S. economy will slow in
time to avert an increase in inflation. ...  (Wall Street Journal, page A2).


Many employers now are looking for ways to help their employees find and pay
for day care for their children to improve productivity and reduce turnover.
When employees discuss worklife issues, one of the most common problems they
cite is finding day care for their children. ...  A survey of 400 employers
released by William M. Mercer Inc., a consulting firm based in New York, and
Bright Horizons Family Solutions, a firm based in Cambridge, Mass., that
operates 272 worksite child care centers nationwide, found that 12 percent
of respondents had an on-site facility.  Eight percent offered a center
nearby, while 5 percent were part of a consortium of employers sponsoring a
facility. ...  (Daily Labor Report, page C-1).

Low inflation has sustained America's economic boom, says Robert J.
Samuelson (op-ed page, Washington Post).  But with inflation apparently
tamed, do we now fact the opposite threat:  deflation?  The fact that this
question is being asked reflects a dramatic reversal. ...  Just as inflation
is the persistent rise of most prices - not just some prices going up -
deflation is the persistent fall of most prices.  We don't have that yet in
the United States.  Last year's low inflation blended price increases and
decreases. ...    

DUE OUT TOMORROW:  Regional and State Employment and Unemployment:  January
1999


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