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Date sent: Tue, 18 May 1999 11:39:19 -0700
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From: Sid Shniad <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: POLL: MOST AMERICANS WANT NEGOTIATIONS
The Washington Post Tuesday, May 18, 1999; Page A18
POLL: MOST AMERICANS WANT NEGOTIATIONS
First significant decline in support for military action
in Yugoslavia since crisis began; German polls show
public there has turned against war.
By Richard Morin, Staff Writer
Public support for the air war in Yugoslavia is softening and a
majority of Americans believe the United States and its
NATO allies should negotiate a settlement with Yugoslav
President Slobodan Milosevic to end the fighting, according to
a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
But the country remains divided over exactly what
concessions the United States should grant Milosevic in
exchange for peace in the Balkans. Half the public agrees that
NATO should not stop the bombing until the Serbs allow a
NATO-led peacekeeping force into Kosovo – but nearly as
many say this NATO peace requirement should be open to
negotiation.
In other ways, the latest Post-ABC News poll suggests that
the war for public opinion on Kosovo has entered a new,
complicated and more risky phase for President Clinton and
the NATO allies.
Only about half the country says NATO should continue to
bomb Yugoslavia. Nearly as many say the United States and
its allies should suspend the air attacks as a way to encourage
Serbian forces to leave Kosovo – an option that has been
repeatedly and forcefully rejected by Clinton and NATO
commanders.
Since the bombing of the Chinese embassy and air strikes that
have killed civilians, the proportion of Americans who say the
allies are "not being careful enough to avoid civilian
casualties" has increased from 19 percent to 32 percent.
The poll also found that in public perception of his handling
of the Kosovo crisis, Clinton has suffered somewhat in recent
weeks. Barely half of those those interviewed – 53 percent –
say they approve of the way he is handling the situation in
Kosovo, down from 56 percent three weeks ago and 60
percent during the first week in April. The proportion of
Americans opposed to Clinton's management of the crisis has
increased from 36 percent to 41 percent in three weeks.
A total of 761 randomly selected Americans were interviewed
Sunday for this Post-ABC News poll. Margin of sampling
error for the overall results is plus or minus 4 percentage
points.
The survey suggests that war fatigue has set in after seven
weeks of bombing strikes by the United States and its
western allies. While the erosion in support remains modest
and perhaps only temporary, it signals the first significant
decline in public support for military action in Yugoslavia
since the crisis began.
American support for the war, however, remains strong
compared to that of several key NATO members. In
Germany, polls show the public has turned against the war
effort and in Italy, Prime Minister Massimo D'Alema is under
increasing political pressure to work for a political solution to
the Kosovo crisis.
The percentage of Americans who back the air campaign has
dropped from 65 percent in late April to 59 percent in the
latest survey. Opposition grew from 30 percent to 38 percent
during the same period.
Fifty-eight percent of those surveyed say NATO should
negotiate with Serbia on terms to end the conflict, while 38
percent say the allies should require Serbia to accept existing
NATO requirements for peace – a view expressed by equally
large proportions of Republicans, Democrats and
independents.
Six in 10 say Milosevic should be required to remove most of
his troops from Kosovo – a key NATO peace condition –
while nearly four in 10 said troop withdrawals should be up
for negotiation. Fifty-four percent say the return of all
refugees to Kosovo should not be open to negotiations, while
42 percent say it should. But 55 percent say a settlement
allowing Kosovo limited self-rule should not be a requirement
for peace.
The survey revealed that the American public is backing
away from sending combat troops into Kosovo. Barely half
of those interviewed – 52 percent – say they favor sending in
soldiers if the air campaign fails to produce peace, down from
56 percent in a Post-ABC News poll conducted three weeks
ago.
At the same time, the proportion who oppose the use of
ground troops increased from 40 percent to 46 percent, with
most of the jump in opposition coming from independents.
Among these voters, opposition to bombing increased by
more than 10 percentage points.
For the first time in Post-ABC News surveys, a clear majority
of Americans – 56 percent – say they would oppose sending
ground troops into Kosovo if it meant that the United States
would suffer "some" casualties.
Clinton has acknowledged that Americans may be growing
frustrated with the length of the bombing campaign and
NATO's inability to bring Milosevic to the peace table. In a
speech last week, Clinton urged the country "not to forget the
real victims of this tragedy" and to "pay the price of time" –
even as some of his advisers fear that time may be running
out.
The latest Post – ABC News poll suggests that Clinton's
recent humanitarian pleas have not won him additional
support for his actions in Serbia. The United States has done
"the right thing" getting involved in Kosovo, according to 54
percent of those interviewed, unchanged from a survey in late
April.
What has increased in recent polls is the sense that neither
side is winning in Kosovo. Fewer than half of those
interviewed – 45 percent – believe the U.S. and its allies are
achieving victory, while 22 percent said Serbia is winning.
But the proportion who say neither side is winning now
stands at 28 percent, up seven percentage points since April.
[PEN-L:7003] (Fwd) POLL: MOST AMERICANS WANT NEGOTIATIONS
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