BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 1999
RELEASED TODAY: Regional and state unemployment rates were generally stable
in August. All four regions posted little change over the month, and 44
states recorded shifts of 0.3 percentage point or less. The national
jobless rate was essentially unchanged at 4.2 percent. Non-farm employment
rose in 36 states and the District of Columbia. ...
Hurricane Floyd lashed the East Coast with rain, wind and waves, but it
won't likely dampen economic growth and may actually have churned up some
extra economic activity. Like meteorologists, economists are quickly trying
to focus their forecasts to reflect changing conditions. According to the
chief economist at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corp. in New
York, one of the most powerful storms to surge out of the Atlantic this
century may actually give the economy a boost. ... However, some
labor-market indicators are expected to bend under Floyd's influence in the
weeks ahead. Some economists expect the evacuation of 2.6 million people to
lift weekly jobless claims, perhaps above 300,000. More significantly, the
September payroll report could be disrupted since the data are collected for
the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. "The number we get
for September will be a little squirrelly," said the chief economist at High
Frequency Economics Inc., a New York research firm. That view is countered,
however, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Alerted to Floyd's advance, the
Bureau identified certain counties in the hurricane's path where data
collection will be postponed until the skies clear. Said bureau economist
Richard Rosen: "We're sensitive to the weather" (Tristan Mabry in Wall
Street Journal, page A2).
Coming down from an unusually strong weather-related gain in July, the
production of U.S. factories, mines, and utilities rose 0.3 percent in
August, according to figures released by the Federal Reserve Board. The 0.3
percent gain was less than half the July increase of 0.7 percent, which the
Fed attributed in part to a surge in utility output related to hotter than
usual weather in much of the country. In August, more seasonal weather
patterns prevailed, and utility output declined 1.6 percent after jumping a
revised 2.3 percent in July. Mining continued its modest rebound with a 0.6
percent rise in total output for August. The Fed attributed that gain, plus
the 0.9 percent rise in July, mainly to the continued recovery in oil and
natural gas drilling, as well as a rise in coal production. ... (Daily
Labor Report, page D-1).
New claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance decreased by
4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 288,000 in the week ended Sept. 11, marking
the eighth consecutive week that initial claims have remained under 300,000,
the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration announced. ...
ETA figures showed that the four-week moving average was 288, 750 as of
Sept.11, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average.
Analysts watch the four-week moving average more closely than the weekly
numbers because it smoothes out data subject to weekly fluctuations. ...
(Daily Labor Report, page D-6).
Industrial production rose 0.3 percent, paced by surging demand for
automobiles and trucks. The increase, which was the seventh straight
monthly gain, surpassed analysts' predictions that there would be no change.
Separately, the Labor Department reported that first-time claims for state
unemployment benefits fell 4,000 last week. The reports suggested that the
economy remained healthy, with improving productivity helping to keep
inflation in check (Washington Post, page E2; Wall Street Journal, page A2;
New York Times, page C2).
A proposed $1 increase in the hourly minimum wage would benefit 12 million
U.S. workers, 7 million or 58 percent of whom are women, according to a new
report jointly released by two research organizations. The Minimum Wage
Increase: A Working Woman's Issue, released by the Economic Policy Institute
and the Institute for Women's Policy Research, provides data on the share of
female workers among minimum wage recipients and the parental status of
minimum wage workers nationally and by state. ... As a group, women earn
lower wages than men; therefore a minimum wage hike would reduce the overall
pay gap between women and men, EPI said. ... (Daily Labor Report, page
A-8).
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