> Date: Sun, 13 May 2001 18:29:59 -0700
> From: Jim Devine <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Brad wrote:
> >But the overall record in terms of improvements in material welfare is
> >astonishing. (Although, alas, Botswana is about to be hit very hard by the
> >AIDS crisis.)
"Although, aas?" I.e., no connection? Horrific
apartheid-esque industrial relations through migrant labour-based
mining, maybe? And the destruction of social values, norms and
practices by importation of an artificial, unsustainable,
commercially-trashy post-colonial model of US/S.African-style
urbanisation, crappy shelter, inadequate domestic water/energy
supplies, and sex commodification? And a dramatic upsurge in domestic
violence that accompanied deracination? I think there are a few links
here, between rapid "growth" of Botswana's sort, and the AIDS crisis.
> >Botswana doesn't need "balance": it needs to find a niche in
> >the southern African regional economy that will sustain further rapid
> >growth, whether or not that niche meets some definition of "development."
Ah, you've surveyed this with the masses? I hate to say, but this
regional economy has been better known by the moniker "Johannesburg
sub-imperialism," and now that all the major firms are taking the gap
offered by ANC neoliberalism, so as to relist on the London Stock
Exchange, we won't even have a subimperial economic base to work from
in coming years, just a massive drain of dividends and profit
remittances to those who grew rich from apartheid and richer by
looting and running.
So much so that the silly Debswana government people (who own 10% of
diamond mining operations in conjunction with DeBeers) have just come
in to the Jo'burg Stock Exchange (JSE) a couple of weeks ago to spend
$200 million in bailing out the obscene bid by Nicky Oppenheimer to
take DeBeers private (so as to relist soon in London), a
devastating move which has been opposed by the main business
newspaper here (http://www.bday.co.za) and by major fund managers who
realise that this will now inexorably crash the JSE's valuation and
future prospects. And it'll thereby do severe damage to Botswana's
own prospects for continuing along its extractive-capitalist
trajectory.
Jim says:
> but it looks like the Botswana economy is highly dependent on diamonds. If
> the demand falls -- say, due to a severe world recession -- the Botswanan
> economy would likely fall too. Unlike Denmark, it doesn't sound like B has
> a highly-skilled work-force and much to fall back on.
Right. In 1929, jumping NY bankers were the signal for a crashing
SA diamond market, which ruined large chunks of the dependent
economy. (Import-substitution industrialisation, a la the dependencia
story, then revived SA.)
> BTW, aren't a lot of the diamond profits sent abroad? Wouldn't these be
> reported as a plus in GDP even though they are income somewhere else?
> wouldn't that help explain the low investment rate relative to the saving rate?
Yes. Plus diamonds are a non-renewable resource. And that's why
Botswana does need balance. Or it will be seen by historians as a
minor flash in the pan which did just a bit better than other
neocolonies in retaining wealth, no matter how poorly invested, in
such counterproductive ways.
Won't continue this thread, as I am off in a couple of hours to Ghana
to see whether Tom Friedman was right, after his visit there a
couple of weeks ago, that "Africans like free trade."
