> G'day Doug,
You wrote:
> hmm, so what's with this?
>
> ASIA-PACIFIC: New data show strong growth in Australia
> Financial Times; Jan 8, 2002
> By REUTERS: AGENCY MATERIAL and STEPHEN WYATT
Well, good retail stats accompany bad residential debt and bankruptcy
stats pretty snugly, and good construction stats (not counting
plummetting commercial space markets (once considered a nasty indicator
all by itself) accompany gigantic government giveaways to first-home
builders (the election induced a $23 billion government pork frenzy -
hardly ideologically sound, but sometimes you do have to go against the
theory to convince the people it's right, eh?). The election is over
now, and the budget has fallen into deficit, so construction is going to
cop it hard shortly. And anyway, the Wyatt piece looks like a
puff-piece to me; just see what this fabled 'consensus' was saying
yesterday: Business picture looking
gloomy By IAN McPHEDRAN of The Australian in
Canberra
07jan02
SALES and profits fell during the last quarter
and most firms expect lower investment and growing
unemployment, a new survey shows.
The Australian Chamber of Commerce and
Industry's January survey of investor confidence paints a
gloomy economic picture.
The quarterly survey asks companies of all
sizes across the nation to assess the economy and their own
business.
The results from about 280 respondents are
compiled into a series of indexes rating economic factors.
Overall the index for economic activity jumped
from 49.2 in July last year to 51.3 but remains well below
the peak of January, 2000.
The investment outlook remains soft with more
firms putting off investment decisions.
They also expect unemployment to rise with
51.4 per cent predicting higher jobless levels.
ACCI's chief economist Steven Kates said the
most telling result was that 40 per cent of firms recorded
lower-than-expected sales before Christmas.
ACCI's acting chief executive Lyndon Rowe
said: "That there is some indication of a slow down of activity and
a fall off in confidence should not be surprising," he said.
Cheers,
Rob.
