I suspect that “Climbing” and “Rainforest” are correlated with each other, so 
one of both lose significance when both are included in the model.

Also, the Wald-type tests in logistic regression are not exact, and they 
typically give a different p-value than a likelihood ratio test. Both Wald 
tests and LRT are approximate, but the Wald-type p-values are typically worse 
approximations.

Cécile

On Sep 2, 2019, at 11:28 AM, Søren Faurby 
<soren.fau...@bios.au.dk<mailto:soren.fau...@bios.au.dk>> wrote:

Dear list,

I am currently working on a project looking at the predictors of spinyness in 
palms

Spinyness is coded binary. I have a number of potential predictors and want to 
identify the best set of predictors. I am using "phyloglm" from the "phylolm" 
package.

I am currently using the method=�logistic_MPLE� method which as I describe 
below gives odd results. method=�logistic_IG10� fails to converge.

AIC and the estimated significance of predictors from Walds test seems oddly 
inconsistent, one predictor produced a much lower AIC but is found to be a 
non-significant predictor. Another is found to be highly significant but 
produces a much higher AIC. I am aware that Walds test are only expected to be 
approximately correct but the degree of difference surprise me. What is the 
cause of this inconsistent behavior and more importantly, how can I under these 
circumstances see what is the best predictor(s) in my data?


My problem is illustrated by four potential  models
M1= phyloglm(Spines~1, dat=DATA, phy=TREE, method="logistic_MPLE")

M2= phyloglm(Spines~ Climbing, dat=DATA, phy=TREE, method="logistic_MPLE")

M3= phyloglm(Spines~ Rainforest, dat=DATA, phy=TREE, method="logistic_MPLE")

M4= phyloglm(Spines~ Climbing + Rainforest, dat=DATA, phy=TREE, 
method="logistic_MPLE")

AIC(M1)= 568.17; AIC(M2)= 546.94; AIC(M3)= 528.68; AIC(M4)= 531.98

Based on AIC it is thus clear that the best model is M3, but I get surprised 
when I compare the results of the models

summary(M2)
             Estimate  StdErr z.value   p.value
(Intercept)  0.90537 1.43428  0.6312 0.5278839
Climbing     0.39713 0.11884  3.3417 0.0008327 ***
Note: Wald-type p-values for coefficients, conditional on alpha=0.004616504

summary(M3)
              Estimate  StdErr z.value   p.value
(Intercept)   1.065304  1.493856  0.7131 0.47577
Rainforest   -0.172741  0.090467 -1.9094 0.05621 .
Note: Wald-type p-values for coefficients, conditional on alpha=0.004046622

Summary(M4)
             Estimate  StdErr z.value   p.value
(Intercept)  0.66313 0.87768  0.7556 0.449916
Climbing     0.29763 0.10801  2.7555 0.005861 **
Rainforest   0.27519 0.18470  1.4899 0.136257
Note: Wald-type p-values for coefficients, conditional on alpha= 0.004563691


Hope someone can help me, S�ren


-
S�ren Faurby
http://antonelli-lab.net<http://antonelli-lab.net/>

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