I think the pie chart by vulnerability category is too simplistic a
view.  One also needs to look at the prevalence of each of the
categories inspected for.  If a tool was able to find the top 25 most
prevalent categories of risk (as reported in CVE for 2006) it would be
finding 70% of reported vulnerabilities while having a category coverage
of less than 5%.  A tool that could inspect for the 95% least prevalent
vulnerability categories would only be finding 30% of the reported
vulnerabilities.  Which tool would you like to run on your code?

-Chris

-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Steven M. Christey
Sent: Monday, December 17, 2007 6:07 PM
To: McGovern, James F (HTSC, IT)
Cc: Secure Coding
Subject: Re: [SC-L] Interesting Blog Entry on Tools Coverage


All,

The original blog entry stems from a CWE pie chart that won't die until
we replace it with a more well-grounded pie chart.

We posted a followup here:


http://www.matasano.com/log/912/finger-79tcp-christeymartin-evolution-of
-the-cwe-pie-chart/


In short, CWE contains several types of nodes at multiple levels of
abstraction, including general categories ("input validation problems")
and arbitrary groupings ("problems related to memory management").  The
original pie chart mixed these node types with 'real' weaknesses, and we
included it in a CWE briefing as a demonstrative example of the utility
of CWE in comparing code analysis tools.

While that pie chart is still partially usable for showing a relative
lack of overlap between tools (modulo the abstraction problem), the
"only 45% of weakness types are found by tools" figure is probably low,
since CWE currently has many nodes that are organizational in nature, so
they would be excluded from any comparative analysis.  (Although we're
also probably relatively shallow with respect to design issues compared
to implementation bugs, which might pull the numbers in another
direction as CWE continues to fill in the gaps).

As vaguely implied in the followup blog entry above, we will be working
on a new pie chart with a better selection of CWE nodes, which should
generate more credible numbers.  We've been doing the ground work, e.g.
explicitly identifying the types of nodes that could then be excluded
from such analyses, but I can't be sure of when we'll have a
new-and-improved pie chart.  Rest assured that we are highly motivated
to replace the existing chart, however, and I think we've learned our
lesson about releasing "demonstrative statistics" in new technology
areas that don't have any.

- Steve
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