RE: charlatanism

2002-08-14 Thread Alex Robson

John Hull wrote:

Example 3: Subjective Utility

Most of the utility 'functions' occurring in
neoclassical microeconomics...are not well defined--as
Henri Poincare pointed out to Leon Walras.  In fact,
the only conditions required of them is that they be
twice differentiable, the first derivative being
positive and the second negative.  Obviously,
infinitely many functions satisfy these mild
requirements.  THIS OFTEN SUFFICES IN SOME BRANCHES OF
PURE MATHEMATICS  BUT THE FACTUAL (OR EMPIRICAL)
SCIENCES ARE MORE DEMANDING: HERE ONE USES ONLY
FUNCTIONS THAT ARE DEFINED EXPLICITLY...OR IMPLICITLY.
 Finally, experimental studies have shown that
preferences and subjective estimates of utility and
risk do not satisfy the assumptions of expected
utility theory.

In short, THE USE OF UTILITY FUNCTIONS IS OFTEN
MATHEMATICALLY SLOPPY AND EMPIRICALLY UNWARRANTED.
Now, rational choice models make heavy use of both
subjective utilities and subjective probabilities, as
well as of the simplistic hypothesis that selfishness
is the only motivation of human behavior.  Not
suprisingly, NONE OF THESE MODELS FITS THE FACT.
Hence, although at first sight they look scientific,
as a matter of fact they are pseudoscientific.


My only comment on this is: it is a silly, uninformed criticism of
economics.  Economics may or may not be pseudoscientific, but not for
these reasons.  First, it has been shown long ago, by Gerard Debreu and
others, that utility functions are not needed in order arrive at many of the
important results in microeconomic theory.  Second, the claim that
economists use the hypothesis that selfishness is the only motivation of
human behaviour is simply wrong, wrong, wrong.  Finally, yes, economists
often use models that are false and don't fit some data.  So do physicists
when they assume away the existence of any frictions.  Is physics also a
pseudoscience for this reason?


Alex






Re: charlatanism

2002-08-14 Thread Mark D Isaacs

Please Remove




Re: charlatanism

2002-08-14 Thread Christopher Auld



On Tue, 13 Aug 2002, john hull quotes Mario Bunge:

 In short, THE USE OF UTILITY FUNCTIONS IS OFTEN
 MATHEMATICALLY SLOPPY AND EMPIRICALLY UNWARRANTED.

It is an interesting regularity that some non-economists -- particularly
philosophers and physicists, and Bunge is both -- seem to think even the
most cursory glance at economic theory is sufficient background to
generate criticism such as this unfortunate piece.

Amongst many other misunderstandings of basic theory, Bunge's point above,
which he repeats several times, confuses the empirical content of the
assumptions that underpin a theory with the empirical content of the
theory itself.  Systematic violation of (expected) utility theory in
experiments does not mean that theories based on those assumptions are
empirically unwarranted any more than the insight that there are not
just two people in two countries using two factors of production to
produce two products invalidates any predictions of trade models based on
those assumptions.

The paragraph about utility functions needing explicit or implicit
functional forms is just bizarre.


Cheers,

Chris Auld
Department of Economics
University of Calgary
[EMAIL PROTECTED]







Re: charlatanism

2002-08-14 Thread Marc . Poitras



The real charlatans in academia are the many frauds who build their whole
careers by getting their names put on coauthored papers to which they have
not legitimately contributed.


Marc Poitras







Nations as Corporations

2002-08-14 Thread Robin Hanson

Imagine that a nation like the US were run like a corporation.  To live 
(and vote) here, you'd have to own a share.  You could sell your share and 
leave, and foreigners could come if they bought a share.  The corporate 
management would be given financial incentives to maximize the market value 
of these shares.  They could issue more shares if these new shares were 
handed out to previous share holders in proportion to the shares they 
currently hold.

What would go wrong or right with running the US this way?  Would 
management focus too much on making immigrants happy, versus people already 
here who are reluctant to leave?  Would there be too many or two few people 
here?  Would government spending increase or decrease?  Would we get less 
desirable immigrants, relative to picking and choosing among 
applicants?  Would the homeless prefer to cash out and leave, rather than 
stay and beg here?  Would people tend to leave when they retire?



Robin Hanson  [EMAIL PROTECTED]  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323




Re: charlatanism

2002-08-14 Thread AdmrlLocke

Does anyone think, at least in the excerpts we read, that the article 
attacked libertarian or libertarian-leaning economics as much as it attacked 
economics generally?


David Levenstam




Re: charlatanism

2002-08-14 Thread Anton Sherwood

[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 The real charlatans in academia are the many frauds who build
 their whole careers by getting their names put on coauthored
 papers to which they have not legitimately contributed.

That's a sort of embezzlement; but `charlatan' implies
that the *content* of the papers is fraudulent.

-- 
Anton Sherwood, http://www.ogre.nu/




Re: Nations as Corporations

2002-08-14 Thread fabio guillermo rojas

 Imagine that a nation like the US were run like a corporation.  To live 

How would you enforce shareholder rights and monitor managers? For
corporations inside nations, one could appeal to the state for law
enforcement or start a lawsuit. What recourse do shareholders have in
such a worlds? Fabio 





Re: charlatanism

2002-08-14 Thread Fred Foldvary

--- john hull [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 The ALL CAPS lines are my emphasis.

I think it is better to use other symbols, such as *caps*, since when they
get copied, one may want to revert to u/l.
 
 NEO-AUSTRIAN
 ECONOMICS, EVEN CLAIM THAT THEIR THEORIES ARE TRUE A
 PRIORI.

This means a priori to specific history, but still posterior to experience,
however general.
Most of textbook microeconomics is a priori.
For example, when deriving the law of demand, do they justify this with data?

Fred Foldvary

=
[EMAIL PROTECTED]




Re: charlatanism

2002-08-14 Thread fabio guillermo rojas


 Does anyone think, at least in the excerpts we read, that the article 
 attacked libertarian or libertarian-leaning economics as much as it attacked 
 economics generally?
 David Levenstam

It's typical to say that bad science is X, and my political
opponents just happen to do X. IMO, it is usually easier to attack an
economic theory in this roundabout way than just to confront the idea
head on because you really don't have to understand what's going on.

Example from my professional life: As is probably obvious, I'm not
an economist - I'm a sociologist who takes economics very seriously
and I sometimes use economic tools in my research. So I'm always
in a position of explaining economic ideas to non-economists and I
frequently find that people tend to avoid economic issues. For
example, when I explain human capital theory to people, they seem
horrified and obsess over whether their sacred cow - education -
can be thought of as something as dirty as an investment. Instead of
asking whether the idea is internally coherent and has empirical
support, they go nuts over just the wording of the theory.

Similarly, I find that these articles that trash economics because it is
psuedoscientific do the same - they obsess over the wording (the use
of math) rather than think real hard about the intuitions behind things.
Of course, there is always bad research hiding behind equations - but
the equations just express an idea - that can be debated - in a coherent
way. 

Fabio 





Re: Nations as Corporations

2002-08-14 Thread John A. Viator

These are very interesting questions!  This would clearly affect the 
decision to have children in one of two ways (that I can think of):
1.  Couples would have fewer children if they had to purchase a share 
for each child they had.
2.  Couples would have more children if they were granted a share for 
each child they had.

I'm sure there are many more consequences, though.

Imagine that a nation like the US were run like a corporation.  To 
live (and vote) here, you'd have to own a share.  You could sell 
your share and leave, and foreigners could come if they bought a 
share.  The corporate management would be given financial incentives 
to maximize the market value of these shares.  They could issue more 
shares if these new shares were handed out to previous share holders 
in proportion to the shares they currently hold.

What would go wrong or right with running the US this way?  Would 
management focus too much on making immigrants happy, versus people 
already here who are reluctant to leave?  Would there be too many or 
two few people here?  Would government spending increase or 
decrease?  Would we get less desirable immigrants, relative to 
picking and choosing among applicants?  Would the homeless prefer to 
cash out and leave, rather than stay and beg here?  Would people 
tend to leave when they retire?



Robin Hanson  [EMAIL PROTECTED]  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323


-- 
John A. Viator, Ph.D.
Beckman Laser Institute
1002 Health Sciences Road East
University of California
Irvine, CA  92612
(949)824-3754
(949)824-6969 fax
[EMAIL PROTECTED]




Re: charlatanism

2002-08-14 Thread fabio guillermo rojas

  The real charlatans in academia are the many frauds who build
  their whole careers by getting their names put on coauthored
  papers to which they have not legitimately contributed.
 That's a sort of embezzlement; but `charlatan' implies
 that the *content* of the papers is fraudulent.
 Anton Sherwood, http://www.ogre.nu/

It is a sort of charlatanry about the content of your career - you sort of
imply you've done a bunch of original stuff by associating yourself with
the successful. Fabio 





Re: charlatanism

2002-08-14 Thread AdmrlLocke


In a message dated 8/14/02 1:47:34 PM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 The real charlatans in academia are the many frauds who build
 their whole careers by getting their names put on coauthored
 papers to which they have not legitimately contributed.

That's a sort of embezzlement; but `charlatan' implies
that the *content* of the papers is fraudulent.

-- 
Anton Sherwood, http://www.ogre.nu/ 

Does anyone think that the real charlatans in science include the people who 
do research which always concludes that the federal government must fund 
more research (in other words, pay the researchers more) and impose new, 
draconian regulations over our lives to save us all from alleged 
environmental catastrophes?

David Levenstam




Re: Nations as Corporations

2002-08-14 Thread CyrilMorong

How would we know what price to charge for a share? 
Would the U.S. have a monopoly?  
Or would it compete with other nations?  
What would we do about people who try to sneak in without buying a share?  
Will people be required to proove at any time they own a share or be deported (or 
worse)?
Would it be one share, one vote in an election for management?
Could a person end up with more than one share, buying from people who leave?

Cyril Morong




Re: Nations as Corporations

2002-08-14 Thread Fred Foldvary

--- Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 Imagine that a nation like the US were run like a corporation.  To live 
 (and vote) here, you'd have to own a share.  You could sell your share and 
 leave, and foreigners could come if they bought a share.  The corporate 
 management would be given financial incentives to maximize the market value

If you own a share, that implies that this is a cooperative, where each
person owns one share and has one vote.

 What would go wrong or right with running the US this way?  

The problem is central planning.  The US corporation would be a giant
enterprise subject to the inefficiencies of any large organization.
Also, minority interests would be overpowered as they are now.

 Would government spending increase or decrease? 

If the members vote as citizens do now, it seems to me that the government
would be under similar special-interest influence, and there would be little
change in government spending.

Fred Foldvary

=
[EMAIL PROTECTED]




Re: Nations as Corporations

2002-08-14 Thread Robin Hanson

Cyril Morong wrote:
How would we know what price to charge for a share?

There's be an open market which would set prices.

Would the U.S. have a monopoly?

A monopoly on rights to live in the US, but other places are substitutes.

What would we do about people who try to sneak in without buying a share?

Same as you'd treat people who stole stock.

Will people be required to proove at any time they own a share or be 
deported (or worse)?

Yup.

Would it be one share, one vote in an election for management?

Yup.

Could a person end up with more than one share, buying from people who leave?

Yes, but it seems unlikely many would do so.






Robin Hanson  [EMAIL PROTECTED]  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323




Re: Nations as Corporations

2002-08-14 Thread Robin Hanson

Fred Foldvary wrote:
  Imagine that a nation like the US were run like a corporation.  To live
  (and vote) here, you'd have to own a share.  You could sell your share and
  leave, and foreigners could come if they bought a share.  The corporate
  management would be given financial incentives to maximize the market value

If you own a share, that implies that this is a cooperative, where each
person owns one share and has one vote.

OK.

  What would go wrong or right with running the US this way?

The problem is central planning.  The US corporation would be a giant
enterprise subject to the inefficiencies of any large organization.

But as with any corporation, the leaders could use decentralized planning,
or break the corporation into pieces, if they thought that would maximize
stock value.  They could dismantle most regulation, if they thought that
would help.

Also, minority interests would be overpowered as they are now.

And as they are in any corporation.

Robin Hanson  [EMAIL PROTECTED]  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323




Re: Nations as Corporations

2002-08-14 Thread Robin Hanson

Fabio wrote:
  Imagine that a nation like the US were run like a corporation.  To live

How would you enforce shareholder rights and monitor managers? For
corporations inside nations, one could appeal to the state for law
enforcement or start a lawsuit. What recourse do shareholders have in
such a worlds?

Are state-enforced lawsuits really what keeps large multinational
corporations honest now?  If not, then the concept here is to use
mechanisms similar to whatever large corporations now use.

Robin Hanson  [EMAIL PROTECTED]  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323




Re: falling murder rates attributable to better trauma care?

2002-08-14 Thread AdmrlLocke


In a message dated 8/14/02 3:38:21 PM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

 Here's a link to a NY Times article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/12/national/12MURD.html?ex=1030256121ei=1en=4

ca972cf978300ff 

It refers to a study by  Anthony R. Harris, published in the journal Homicide 
Studies.  He studies hospital admissions of assault victims, and finds that 
substantial advances in trauma care have reduced mortality among assault 
victims.  That is, given an assault, the victim who would have died in 1960 
(becoming a murder statistic) survives the assault in the 1990s.  Thus, some  
of the declining murder rate since the 1960s may be attributable to better 
health care, not lessened murderous behavior.

Has anyone seen the study?  If so, does the finding appear genuine?  As the 
news article sums up, [T]he study could raise questions about how
crime statistics are analyzed, and that researchers should
consider whether medical care has improved when assessing
local changes in crime rates.  Interesting stuff for the econ of crime folks.

Noel 

As I  understand it, rates of all crimes, violent and non-violent, have 
trended downward since around 1980, and that in the 1990s we actually saw 
drops in the numbers (not merely rates per thousand) of crimes of all types 
committed in the US.  The largest factor tending to reduce crime rates might 
be an aging population, since young men tend to commit a disproportionately 
large share of crimes (I presume excluding white collar crimes, but with the 
advent of crimes by computer hacking, I'm not sure if that's true anymore 
either).

While improvements in medical care might well account for a simple drop in 
the rate of murder (or even in the number of murders), how could it account 
for a drop in the rate (to say nothing of the number) of assaults?  Even the 
aging of the population does not seems able to account for an actual drop in 
the number of assaults when the size of the population continues to increase.

I do know that states which have passed general concealed carry permit laws 
have seen rather drastic drops in the rate of homicide and other violent 
crimes; I'm most familiar with the case of Florida, which experienced a drop 
in one year from 50% over the national average (of homicides) to just under 
the national average--an average that itself was falling, even I believe if 
you take the average of only the other 49 states.  Medical improvements seem 
incapable of explaining such sudden drops, which I understand have been 
mirrored in each of the other states that has passed general concealed carry. 
 It seems likely that concealed carry has itself contributed to drops in 
murder (and other violent crime) rates.

Concealed carry didn't really start until the 1990s, so obviously it can't 
explain falling crime rates in the 1980s, and I suspect that it alone can't 
account for falling numbers of crimes in the 1990s.  Beyond aging and 
concealed carry, we could look at prison sentences and likelihoods of 
incarceration.  During the 1980s in particularly candidates touting a get 
tough on crime agenda got elected all across the US, and federal and state 
governments passed all sorts of laws to increase punishments and the 
likelihood of their imposition.  I suspect that the get tough attitude and 
its impact on crime policies also contributed to the decline in crime in the 
US.

I know that economists sometimes model crime.  Does anyone here at GMU model 
crime, and is it something someone here can do as part of a dissertation?  

Sincerely,

David




RE: charlatanism

2002-08-14 Thread Michael Etchison

fabio guillermo rojas:

Similarly, I find that these articles that trash economics because it
is psuedoscientific do the same - they obsess over the wording (the
use of math) rather than think real hard about the intuitions behind
things. Of course, there is always bad research hiding behind equations
- but the equations just express an idea - that can be debated - in a
coherent way. 

Speaking up for the innumerates here --
Part of my objection may be my inability to use the tools.  But I cling
to the notion that part of the objection is that some aspects of
economic activity (to say nothing of activity which has been subjected
to economics imperialism) _cannot_ be the sort of thing to which
mathematical manipulation, in particular equations, can be properly
applied.

Michael
Michael E. Etchison
Texas Wholesale Power Report
MLE Consulting
www.mleconsulting.com
1423 Jackson Road
Kerrville, TX 78028
(830) 895-4005





Re: falling murder rates attributable to better trauma care?

2002-08-14 Thread john hull

A while back I heard an ex-military man and author
claim that first-person video games do lead to gun
violence.  He made the claim that better medical care
has has hidden the rise in gun violence by reducing
the mortality rate.  It does make intuitive sense, if
one looks at murder per se.  While I don't think I've
really answered your question, I just wanted to say
that it may be an 'old' idea in some fields.  Perhaps
economists could profit from it.

-jsh



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Re: charlatanism

2002-08-14 Thread john hull


--- Fred Foldvary [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
I think it is better to use other symbols, such as
*caps*, since when they get copied, one may want to
revert to u/l.

Sorry.  Yahoo email doesn't give me many options.  I
was hesitant about yelling, which I guess is what all
caps is.  I'll try something else in the future. 
Thanks.

Most of textbook microeconomics is a priori.  For
example, when deriving the law of demand, do they
justify this with data?

By that reasoning, aren't all the results obtained in
Euclid's Elements assumed a priori?  I took the law of
demand, along with most textbook economics, to be
derived axiomatically rather than assumed.  Or is that
what a priori means?  Given reasonable assumptions
(axioms), does that mean that economic findings are
valid without being 'scientific,' i.e. rigoriously
tested?  It seems to me yes, but when data doesn't
match theory, one must search for new or modified
axioms.  Thoughts on that?

By the way, I was particularly interested in Bunge's
assertions that a scientific research program is to
find the functional forms between variables.  Should
economists spend more time on that program?  It seems
like it would be unnecessary in many contexts, e.g.
the Tragedy of the Commons where a result can obtain
by merely knowing that the production function is
concave, inter alia.  But then again, maybe not.  

It seems that alot of people critique econ. without
learning it, and Bunge seems to be in that school of
thought.  But it is good to take critiques seriously. 
I bet there are a lot of psychic mediums and polygraph
artists who actually believe what they're doing it
valid and real.  It's probably best to double check
once in a while and make sure we're not headed down
that road.

I still maintain that Bunge's ridiculous assertion
that economics assumes greed/money as the only human
motivator is held by most people.  I think it could be
addressed by including the definition of rationality
as the structure of preferences rather than the
content of preferences in basic economics education. 
I think educators are doing a great disservice by not
making this clear early on.

-jsh

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Re: Nations as Corporations

2002-08-14 Thread AdmrlLocke


In a message dated 8/14/02 3:37:34 PM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

 The problem is central planning.  The US corporation would be a giant
enterprise subject to the inefficiencies of any large organization.
Also, minority interests would be overpowered as they are now.

 Would government spending increase or decrease? 

If the members vote as citizens do now, it seems to me that the government
would be under similar special-interest influence, and there would be little
change in government spending. 

Rereading the two passages, I wonder if there isn't a contraction.  In the 
first passage we have minority interests overpowered, but in seeming 
contraction we have in the second passage special interests with influence.  
How other is a minority interest different from a special interest?   Or are 
we talking about corporations in the first rather than the voters in the 
second.  In the case of corporations, a minority holder ofte can, and does 
exert considerable interest, especially over a publicly-held corporation.  
Ross Perot gained some of his millions by using his minority stake in GM to 
harass the GM board of directors until they paid him off.

Unrelated to the question of minority interests, could Americans participate 
in any other organizations?  Or would everything be controlled by the 
corporation?  Could Americans start other corporations, partnerships, sole 
proprietorships?  Seperate churches and recreational or philanthropic 
organizations?  Or would everything have to be done under the auspcies of the 
corporations?

David




Re: Nations as Corporations

2002-08-14 Thread John A. Viator

It's not clear (to me, anyway.)  If new people were extremely 
productive, it seems that managers may want to encourage that type of 
person to be born, so they may give parents free shares for the 
child.  If new people aren't very productive, then giving away shares 
for free doesn't make much sense.


John A. Viator wrote:
This would clearly affect the decision to have children in one of 
two ways (that I can think of):
1.  Couples would have fewer children if they had to purchase a 
share for each child they had.
2.  Couples would have more children if they were granted a share 
for each child they had.

Yup.  And which policy would profit maximizing managers choose?

Robin Hanson  [EMAIL PROTECTED]  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323


-- 
John A. Viator, Ph.D.
Beckman Laser Institute
1002 Health Sciences Road East
University of California
Irvine, CA  92612
(949)824-3754
(949)824-6969 fax
[EMAIL PROTECTED]




Re: Nations as Corporations

2002-08-14 Thread fabio guillermo rojas


 Are state-enforced lawsuits really what keeps large multinational
 corporations honest now?  If not, then the concept here is to use
 mechanisms similar to whatever large corporations now use.
 Robin Hanson  [EMAIL PROTECTED]  http://hanson.gmu.edu

Multinationals come in different flavors. Those based in Western
nations and that have assets that can be seized after litigation
are probably kept in line by fear of lawsuits and jail terms.

I have no idea how share holders keep faith in firms based in dodgy
Third World nations. Probably some kind of trust, where paying out
dividends and respecting voting rights signals that future investors
will be treated well. But how often does this occur? Are these
multinationals not based in 3rd world not trying to avoid shareholder
rights? 

Fabio 





Re: Nations as Corporations

2002-08-14 Thread Fred Foldvary

--- [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  minority interests would be overpowered as they are now.

 would be under similar special-interest influence

 Rereading the two passages, I wonder if there isn't a contraction. 

There is no contraction, but one could read into it a contradiction.

However, the two statements are compatible.
In society there are minorities with little power and other minorities with
much power.  For example, a country could have a ruling elite with much
wealth and power, and also despised minorities with little power.

Fred Foldvary

=
[EMAIL PROTECTED]




Re: charlatanism

2002-08-14 Thread Fred Foldvary

--- john hull [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 Given reasonable assumptions
 (axioms), does that mean that economic findings are
 valid without being 'scientific,' i.e. rigoriously
 tested?

If the logic is valid and the premises true, then the conclusion is sound and
therefore fully scientific.
Scientific should not be equated with tested.
For example, the law of diminishing returns is scientific in being true, even
if one does not test for it.
Indeed, that law is so scientific that if one tested it and found that the
outcome was inconsistent with that law, one would question the data before
one would question the law.

  It seems to me yes, but when data doesn't
 match theory, one must search for new or modified
 axioms.  Thoughts on that?

If it is a general theory that has already been warranted, one would first
examine the data and testing methods.
But if it is a hypothesis about something specific, such as the consequences
of the euro, then when the data rejects the hypothesis, one would search for
a new one.
 
 I still maintain that Bunge's ridiculous assertion
 that economics assumes greed/money as the only human
 motivator is held by most people.

How do you know?
*That* is an example of a hypothesis that needs testing.

  I think it could be
 addressed by including the definition of rationality
 as the structure of preferences rather than the
 content of preferences in basic economics education. 

Agreed.  And also, rationality has to do with the choice of means in the
pursuit of ends, namely economizing or optimizing.

Fred Foldvary

=
[EMAIL PROTECTED]




Re: falling murder rates attributable to better trauma care?

2002-08-14 Thread david sandin

when I looked at theassault rates at the bureau of justice statistics homepage http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/aslt.htm































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































they show aggravatedassaults being approximately the samefrom 1973 to 1994and a steady decline since then.Wasthere some dramaticchange during the 60sor early 70s that causedthe increase inaggravated assaultsclaimed by the articleor isit something wrong with the statistics?


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Re: Nations as Corporations

2002-08-14 Thread Wei Dai

On Wed, Aug 14, 2002 at 01:24:12PM -0400, Robin Hanson wrote:
 Imagine that a nation like the US were run like a corporation.  To live 
 (and vote) here, you'd have to own a share.  You could sell your share and 
 leave, and foreigners could come if they bought a share.  The corporate 
 management would be given financial incentives to maximize the market value 
 of these shares.  They could issue more shares if these new shares were 
 handed out to previous share holders in proportion to the shares they 
 currently hold.

This seems very similar to having a poll tax, with the following twists:

1. You can voluntarily pay a higher tax and get proportionally more 
votes.
2. Management is given incentives to maximize revenue from poll taxes. 
(Other forms of taxes can be collected but management does not have direct 
incentives based on their revenues.)

They're similar in the sense that they look the same to people who have
access to perfect capital markets. I'm not sure how much this helps in
analyzing Robin's proposal, but at least it gives a different approach to
thinking about the problem. My variant may be an improvement since
it allows people who would benefit most by living in the U.S. to enter
even if they do not have access to credit.

One effect that becomes apparent in my variant is that management would
want to make income taxes more progressive and use the revenue to
subsidize the poor so that they can afford to pay a higher poll tax. I
think the effect carries over to Robin's system - subsidizing the poor at
the expense of the rich increases the total market value of the shares.  
More generally, management would want to subsidize the
marginal shareholder-residents at the expense of the non-marginal
shareholder-residents. This amounts to de facto price discrimination even 
though all shares supposedly have the same price on the open market.

On Wed, Aug 14, 2002 at 04:50:19PM -0400, Robin Hanson wrote:
 Are state-enforced lawsuits really what keeps large multinational
 corporations honest now?  If not, then the concept here is to use
 mechanisms similar to whatever large corporations now use.

One factor that keeps large corporations honest is the threats of hostile
takeovers and bankruptcy. Unfortunately neither of these seem likely to
apply to a large nation-as-corporation. Imagine creditors trying to force
everyone else to leave the U.S. after a bankruptcy because they now own
all of the shares.




Re: Nations as Corporations

2002-08-14 Thread Misha Gambarian

If we assume that most people of USA have exactly one share, then
changes from current system are mostly in immigration law - citizenship
is for sale, and people are rewarded if they leave country and drop
citizenship. We can expect much more rich immigrants and huge increase
in government (INS) policy toward them - government will begin to
actively attract wealthy immigrants. On the other side, poor americans
will emigrate to probably cheap countries and live there on the money
that they will receive for their share. (Or they will sell share and
live as underclass without voting rights (and may be right to work and
so on)) Both changes look attractive for me. I think we cannot expect
big changes in voters behavior - so may be elected officials will be
more or less the same (but with different motives, if they are rewarded
for share price). We can expect, that generally market for shares would
be small (not very liquid), so effect of wealthy people wanting to be
USA citizens can be very strong (so, for example, their expected
interest in low taxes can make taxes smaller, than now).

On the other side, if we allow people to buy more than one share (as it
happens in real corporations) - then I think we can expect that rich
people will buy many shares (as they do in existing real corporations)
to get political influence more directly than now
and USA will become oligopoly with poor people having less power than
they have now.

Mikhail Gambarian

Robin Hanson wrote:

   Imagine that a nation like the US were run like a corporation.  To
   live (and vote) here, you'd have to own a share.  You could sell your
   share and leave, and foreigners could come if they bought a share.
   The corporate management would be given financial incentives to
   maximize the market value of these shares.  They could issue more
   shares if these new shares were handed out to previous share holders
   in proportion to the shares they currently hold.
  
   What would go wrong or right with running the US this way?  Would
   management focus too much on making immigrants happy, versus people
   already here who are reluctant to leave?  Would there be too many or
   two few people here?  Would government spending increase or decrease?
   Would we get less desirable immigrants, relative to picking and
   choosing among applicants?  Would the homeless prefer to cash out and
   leave, rather than stay and beg here?  Would people tend to leave when
   they retire?
  
  
  
   Robin Hanson  [EMAIL PROTECTED]  http://hanson.gmu.edu
   Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
   MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
   703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323