RE: Underwater mortgages and the economy (Dan Minette)
-Original Message- From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On Behalf Of Doug Pensinger Sent: Tuesday, November 02, 2010 12:25 AM To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Subject: Re: Underwater mortgages and the economy (Dan Minette) Keith wrote: Unfortunately I have no ideas about how to get this going, at least not in the US. I think a rule change favoring longer term investments in physical plant will be needed before anyone will consider any such ideas. It needs to be recognized as a matter of national security. I hate to say it, but I would put this type of spending in with the vast amount of money put into 5th generation computers by the Japanese, which helped trigger their lost two decades. This is not a black swan type of new technology that comes out of nowhere, where costs come down a factor of two every year or two, etc. Its old technology, long promised as just around the corner. It will be very good at providing electricity in small amounts at high prices. IMHO, the long history of these two ventures put this as a cross between the cost effectiveness of solar power and the space shuttle. Dan M. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: Underwater mortgages and the economy
Doug wrote: Or a negative black swan, pardon me for pointing out what might happen. The blackest of black swans. It is quite possible that we falter over the next two years, sliding back into depression. One of the most depressing figures is that the average GDP growth rate for the last 30 years will result in unemployment increasing, since we need 3%/year growth to tread water. China will continue to rise, because planned economies work well with no surprises. We will have exhausted the wonders of invention and new possibilities that have fueled this nation since its start, and we will fall behind a ruthless dictatorship, who will bring a new world order. For example, our green cars are economical because China has an environment be damned technique for processing rare earthsand sells very cheaply because of that. We'll spend all of our money on things like bypass surgery for 90 years old Alzheimer patients. Palin will be President with a cowed Democratic minority rolling over and playing dead. The Hispanics and blacks will say a plague on both your houses, and not vote, and the poor whites (who I live amongst) will focus on the elitist tendencies of the Democrats and would rather have an economic than an intellectual elite rule. It's possible, but not probable, thankfully. This was predicted in the '80s remember. China has lotsa problems that it hides because it controls all media. I predict it will be the new Japan. And, the US still has abundant natural resources. What leftists can do to help is pick two piles: regulations and lawsuits that help and regulations and lawsuits that simply make practical plans politically impossible. The sad thing is that I think the author of Wingnuts is correct, more people will believe wild falsifiable ideas after they are falsified than deal with real possibilities. Dan M. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Energy projects was Underwater mortgages and the economy
On Tue, Nov 2, 2010 at 11:00 AM, Dan Minette danmine...@att.net wrote: snip This is not a black swan type of new technology that comes out of nowhere, where costs come down a factor of two every year or two, etc. Its old technology, long promised as just around the corner. It will be very good at providing electricity in small amounts at high prices. IMHO, the long history of these two ventures put this as a cross between the cost effectiveness of solar power and the space shuttle. Dan, I don't mind criticisms based on understanding the engineering and/or economics, but this kind of blanket dismissal I don't think is justified. The power satellite variation I have been talking about is based on a 200 to one reduction in the cost of lifting parts to GEO and *that* is based on high power solid state lasers which have only been on the market for a few years. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_diodes#Applications_of_laser_diodes Do you have an idea of what raising the exhaust velocity to 9-10 km/sec will do for payload? The StratoSolar idea is just over a year old and has only been out from under NDA for a month. There are *many* engineering problems still to be solved. Still, it looks like for fundamental reasons the method will cut the cost of materials by close to a factor of 25 over current concentrated solar power systems. Since the capital cost of materials is the main cost driver for renewable sources of energy, a 25 to one reduction in materials cost should cause a substantial reduction in energy cost. If these methods cannot be projected to supply huge amounts of energy at very low prices, they are not worth doing at all. Keith ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: Energy projects was Underwater mortgages and the economy
-Original Message- From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On Behalf Of Keith Henson Sent: Tuesday, November 02, 2010 2:28 PM To: brin-l@mccmedia.com Subject: Energy projects was Underwater mortgages and the economy On Tue, Nov 2, 2010 at 11:00 AM, Dan Minette danmine...@att.net wrote: snip This is not a black swan type of new technology that comes out of nowhere, where costs come down a factor of two every year or two, etc. Its old technology, long promised as just around the corner. It will be very good at providing electricity in small amounts at high prices. IMHO, the long history of these two ventures put this as a cross between the cost effectiveness of solar power and the space shuttle. Dan, I don't mind criticisms based on understanding the engineering and/or economics, but this kind of blanket dismissal I don't think is justified. The power satellite variation I have been talking about is based on a 200 to one reduction in the cost of lifting parts to GEO and *that* is based on high power solid state lasers which have only been on the market for a few years. I looked at the articles you provided, and I noted, without surprise, that they omitted a very key detail: laser efficiency. In typical everyday usage, lasers are not very efficient. Even in high tech uses, such as inertia fusion, particle beams are much more efficient: about 12% vs. about 1%, back when inertia fusion was big back in the '80s. These are the kind of omissions that are tell-tale to me. It's an absolutely critical piece of information, which isn't mentioned. I've seen it probably literally thousands of times in the writings of true believers. I use it as a measure of a serious engineering or science project. Real practical engineers are very excited when they talk about key technical challenges. True believers don't talk about them. So, tell me, how are the lasers going to get the power to energize the fuel, and what is the efficiency and weight of the lasers involved? Dan M. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Energy projects was Underwater mortgages and the economy
Dan said: In typical everyday usage, lasers are not very efficient. Even in high tech uses, such as inertia fusion, particle beams are much more efficient: about 12% vs. about 1%, back when inertia fusion was big back in the '80s. High pulse energy, high repetition rate diode-pumped solid state lasers now have an efficiency of around 10%. Rich ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: Energy projects was Underwater mortgages and the economy
High pulse energy, high repetition rate diode-pumped solid state lasers now have an efficiency of around 10%. OK, that's a lot better than when I was kicking around inertia fusion. Factors of 5-10 (it might have been as much as 2% efficient back in 1980) every 30 years is nothing to sneeze at, but is still not near Moore's law...while synthetic biology is presently beating Moore's law (how long they can keep this up, I don't know, but we haven't gotten to the steep part of the cost curve that happens before the wall yet). But, what I've read on laser powered rockets, its burning stuff off rockets by hitting them with a laser just right. The article that argues for it: http://htyp.org/Hundred_dollars_a_kg sure seems like Piccard engineering to me. Dan M. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Underwater mortgages and the economy
Dan wrote: It is quite possible that we falter over the next two years, sliding back into depression. One of the most depressing figures is that the average GDP growth rate for the last 30 years will result in unemployment increasing, since we need 3%/year growth to tread water. Not what I meant, sorry, but I was sticking with your definition of black swan as a solution to economic malaise. War, global conflict, would be the most drastic solution. Doug history repeats ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
