Don, thanks for providing these statistics!
Overall it suggests that on CGOS White only has a small advantage. I
still don't like this, but it is not nearly as bad as I initially
suspected.
The initially decreasing percentages are somewhat puzzling. One might
speculate that up to a certain level Black's strategy to dominate the
center is easier, and White needs significant resources to learn how
to build two sufficiently large living groups.
My guess is that for 5-minute CGOS games the average level of play is
still weak enough to keep White's advantage relatively close to 50%.
I'm not sure how many programs actually play at peak strength on CGOS,
but in the future we may expect to see an increasing group suffering
from the large komi.
Maybe it would be interesting to compare recent games to older games
to see if there is a trend in the top group?
Erik
On Thu, Oct 9, 2008 at 6:08 AM, Don Dailey [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Ok, I'm doing the komi study. I hope this data formats properly on
your email clients.
I am not including the first day or two of games because I remember
that I started out with 6.5 komi but I think that only lasted a few
hours.
I'm including ALL games unless they ended with an illegal move.
I'm using bayeselo ratings. So each bot has only 1 rating over it's
entire lifetime of games.
I do not include games where either player played less than 20 games.
20 games does not give a very accurate rating, but I had to draw the
line somewhere. However it's probably within 100 ELO of being
correct.
I require opponents to be within 100 ELO of each other. I ran this
many times using different minimum ELO values.
The data seems to indicate that white's winning percentage at 7.5 komi
DECREASES with the strength of the players in general.
HOWEVER, the 2500 ELO entry is intriguing. It shows a sudden jump
with a sample of 3400 games. Does anyone have an explanation for
that? Is this just sample error? Or are the programs finally strong
enough to start seeing that white wins at 7.5 komi?
Another interesting fact is that whites win percentage drops below 50%
with some of these entries (stronger players.)
DIFF MIN ELOWHITETOTAL PERCENT
- --- --- --- ---
100074513 141579 52.630
100 10074513 141579 52.630
100 20074511 141577 52.629
100 30074191 141054 52.598
100 40073723 140308 52.544
100 50073524 140009 52.514
100 60073427 139874 52.495
100 70072763 138921 52.377
100 80072335 138212 52.336
100 90071227 136490 52.185
100 100071192 136432 52.181
100 110071084 136231 52.179
100 120068862 132356 52.028
100 130067765 130428 51.956
100 140066562 128193 51.923
100 150064143 123672 51.865
100 160056458 108767 51.907
100 170053943 103828 51.954
100 18004079078999 51.634
100 19001840336247 50.771
100 20001685933340 50.567
100 21001379327399 50.341
100 2200 898618072 49.723
100 2300 855517266 49.548
100 2400 768615569 49.367
100 2500 1801 3400 52.971
100 2600 12 28 42.857
When I use a window of 200 ELO the data looks very similar.
Here is the data when I require the difference to be 50 ELO or less:
DIFF MIN ELOWHITETOTAL PERCENT
- --- --- --- ---
5004618487556 52.748
50 1004618487556 52.748
50 2004618387555 52.747
50 3004603187326 52.712
50 4004589087100 52.687
50 5004581586996 52.663
50 6004581386993 52.663
50 7004537686377 52.533
50 8004510885932 52.493
50 9004405084302 52.253
50 10004403284277 52.247
50 11004396984163 52.243
50 12004284082193 52.121
50 13004236181354 52.070
50 14004150379735 52.051
50 15004100378853 51.999
50 16003795972933 52.046
50 17003628069569 52.150
50 18002847854845 51.925
50 1900 853516668 51.206
50 2000 789615433 51.163
50 2100 682313349 51.112
50 2200 4145 8120 51.047
50 2300 3917 7704 50.844
50 2400 3627 7166 50.614
50 2500 1497 2871 52.142
50 2600 12 28 42.857
___
computer-go mailing list
computer-go@computer-go.org
http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/
___
computer-go mailing
