-Caveat Lector- Mario Profaca wrote: > > Document says CIA overstated Soviet threat > http://inq.philly.com/content/inquirer/2001/03/09/national/NUKES10.htm > > By Jonathan S. Landay > INQUIRER WASHINGTON BUREAU > > WASHINGTON - For more than 10 years during the Cold War, U.S. intelligence > forecasts greatly exaggerated the pace at which the former Soviet Union > would improve its long-range nuclear forces, a newly declassified CIA > document indicated today. > > The summary of a 1989 CIA internal review said every major intelligence > assessment from 1974 to 1986 - a period covering at least three > presidencies - "substantially" overestimated the Kremlin's plans to > modernize and expand its strategic nuclear arsenal. Well DUH???? How else do you maintain a wartime military economy during peace? The bigger the enemy, the bigger the threat. The bigger the threat, the bigger the fear. The bigger the fear, the better the justification for the ENORMOUS amount spent on the cold war. Thirteen TRILLION dollars. > > The document raised new questions about how well the CIA and other U.S. > intelligence agencies judged the Soviet Union's aims and intentions, and the > extent to which mistaken analyses influenced U.S. military spending and > Washington's defense and foreign policies. They weren't mistaken. They lied. The Soviet economy was one one sixth that of the USA's. They didn't have the money to waste on military hardware AND fund their society. > > The persistent errors also raise questions about the intelligence > community's ability to collect reliable information on today's targets, > which are more diverse and even harder for spies to penetrate than the > Soviet Union was. The " intelligence " community did not see the Soviet Empire crumble. But they did see the Soviets ' modernize and expand ' their military. Why am I paying these guys? > > During the Cold War, the Soviet Union's force of nuclear-armed > intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarines, and long-range > bombers was the U.S intelligence community's primary target. But today's > spies must try to keep track of international terrorists, rogue > nuclear-weapons programs and computer hackers, and also plumb the minds of > Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and North Korea's Kim Jong Il, all of which > is much harder than counting missile silos in Kazakstan or estimating the > wheat crop in Ukraine. This is all bullshit. This writer is a CIA hack. > > The study is part of more than 19,000 pages of documents that have been > declassified for a two-day conference on the CIA's analysis of the Soviet > Union from 1947 to 1991 that opened today at Princeton University. The > documents deleted material still considered important to national security. Princeton is the home of the modern US intelligence structure foisted upon the American people by presidential order after WWII. NOTHING comming out of Princeton which relates to intelligence can be trusted. It is simply one of the academic outlets for CIA disinformation. As is this article. > > Titled "Intelligence Forecasts of Soviet Intercontinental Attack Forces: An > Evaluation of the Record," the study reviewed the U.S. intelligence > community's projections of efforts to modernize Soviet nuclear forces in the > 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. > > The forecasts, known as national intelligence estimates (NIE), were intended > to guide the president and his top aides in setting defense and foreign > policies, including military spending and the size of U.S. nuclear forces. > An NIE represents the consensus of 13 agencies, including the CIA and the > Defense Intelligence Agency, which frequently disagreed about the severity > of the Soviet threat. > > The study found that predicting the rate of Soviet nuclear-force > modernization "has proven to be the most difficult aspect of Soviet > strategic forces to project." Yeah right. > > As an example, it cited a 1975 forecast that by 1985 more than 90 percent of > Soviet long-range missiles and bombers would be replaced. "In reality, the > Soviets replaced less than 60 percent of them," the study said. > > "This tendency to substantially overestimate the rate of [Soviet] force > modernization occurred in every NIE published from 1974 to 1986, and it was > true for every projected force - whether it assumed high, moderate or low > levels of effort," the study continued. Remember the hysteria of the " missile gap?" Remember haw much it cost us to catch up? Evidently, GE, Hughes, General Dynamics, and the other masters of war weren't making enough profits for their share holders to buy a new limousine every year. > > In another example, it said an NIE published in 1985 - the beginning of > President Ronald Reagan's second term - "projected that virtually the entire > [Soviet] ICBM force would be replaced within 10 years." The Reagan administration waged economic war against the Soviets using these fabricated reports as justification. The US economy, being six times larger than the Soviet economy, could spend huge amounts without destroying the civilian economy. It only meant hardships for the poor. The Soviets were FORCED to spend so much of their smaller economy on weapons, that their civilian economy became unbearable. This was intentional economic war waged by America's rich ( who are the ones which most fear Communism ) using the wealth of America's middle class as the economic weapon. Taxpayer's money was transferred to the coffers of the Military Industrial Complex by the missile full. The middle class lost ground. The poor lost their safety net. The rich made out like bandits. And the economies of Russia and Eastern Europe were demolished. We have not heard the end of this yet. The Russians will not stay down forever. They KNOW who screwed them. > > But by 1989, "more than one-third of the projection period has passed, and > so far only about 10 percent of the force is new," the study said. > > Another document showed that inaccurate forecasting continued in a 1988 NIE. > This one projected that Moscow could field up to 18,000 intercontinental > nuclear weapons by the late 1990s if the United States deployed Reagan's > proposed space-based national missile-defense system, known as the Strategic > Defense Initiative, or SDI. > > In fact, the cash-strapped Russian military has struggled in recent years to > maintain an aging force of some 6,000 nuclear warheads and a deteriorating > command and control system. > > The study attributed the tendency to overestimate Soviet > nuclear-modernization plans to a number of reasons, including the > intelligence community's failure "to correctly understand Soviet military > requirements." This is a LIE!!! > > Intelligence analysts also relied on the rate of a massive Soviet missile > buildup in the late 1960s "as a guide for future deployment rates, but that > rate of deployment was never approached again," the study said. > > Melvin Goodman, a former senior CIA Soviet analyst, said the study bolstered > criticism that intelligence assessments of the Soviet threat were > deliberately inflated to justify increases in U.S. defense spending and > nuclear forces, as well as SDI. Well finally. > > "This is the first time that the CIA has gone on the record confirming the > exaggeration of [Soviet] force modernization," said Goodman, who teaches at > the National War College in Washington. > > --------------------- > Jonathan S. Landay's e-mail address is > mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]. <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html <A HREF="http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html">Archives of [EMAIL PROTECTED]</A> http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ <A HREF="http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/">ctrl</A> ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
