-Caveat Lector-
From
http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/fr/fr011109_
1_n.shtml
}}}>Begin
09
November 2001
Caspian security under threat
The battle for control of the Caspian Basin's vast oil and gas riches
could become
deadly if the US-led war against global terrorism ignites trouble in
Central Asia
and the Caucasus.
Turkey has already warned Russia that there is a risk of violence
flaring again
in the Caucasus, where Moscow's relations with Georgia have
deteriorated sharply,
with Georgia accusing the Russians of conducting air strikes in
support of dissident
forces in late October.
Tensions also remain palpable between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Indeed,
the foreign
ministers of Georgia and these Caucasus republics said in late
October they
were concerned that the developing war in Afghanistan would divert attention
from the potentially explosive ethnic conflicts that have riven the region since
the collapse of the Soviet Union a decade ago.
Georgia's foreign minister, Irakly Menagarishvili, whose government is fighting
separatists in the Abkhazia region, has accused Moscow of exploiting the Afghan
conflict to press its own interests in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Russia
moved military forces to its border with Georgia in late October to block what
it claimed were armed groups, many of which it said were 'Islamic zealots' from
Chechnya operating with tacit Georgian support, crossing from Abkhazia.
The swelling crisis in Georgia also stems from deepening discontent with the
government of President Eduard Shevardnadze, who was forced to dismiss his entire
cabinet on 1 November in a bid to appease anti-government protesters.
There is also growing discontent in Uzbekistan with the authoritarian regime
of President Islam Karimov, which has the largest armed forces in
Central Asia.
In recent months, Karimov has used the threat of militant Islam in
the region
as the pretext for crushing his political opposition. This, many
fear, will
intensify support for underground Islamic groups, particularly in
the volatile Ferghana Valley.
297 of 678 words
[End of non-subscriber extract.]
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