-Caveat Lector-

from:
http://www.aci.net/kalliste/
<A HREF="http://www.aci.net/kalliste/">The Home Page of J. Orlin Grabbe</A>
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Single Currency

Euro Opens Strong in FX Market

The computers are ready

PARIS - The new European single currency, the euro, opened strongly in
Asia-Pacific currency markets Monday after European central bankers,
having worked through the holiday weekend, had pronounced themselves
ready for the currency's introduction in European markets.
The euro hit trading screens in Sydney at 1800 GMT on Sunday as
Australia became the world's first major market to deal in the new
currency. The euro opened at $1.1747, higher than the reference rate of
$1.17 given Thursday by the European Central Bank, and at 133.20 yen,
slightly stronger than the level of 132.80 yen set by the bank.

Traders also reported opening trades of 70.8 British pence - higher than
the reference rate of 70.5 pence - 1.6110 Swiss francs and 1.9190
Australian dollars. Earlier, in the Bombay market, one of the few that
was open New Year's Day, the euro closed Friday at $1.1720.

In Tokyo, the euro opened at 133.15 yen, also at 1800 GMT on Sunday - 3
A.M. on Monday, local time - but major trading was not expected to take
place until about five hours later, when most traders were due to return
from the New Year's weekend.

The main test of the new currency's strength against the dollar,
analysts said, was expected to come Monday in London, which has the
largest segment of the $1.5 trillion-a-day global currency market.

The European Central Bank said Sunday that national central banks and
commercial finant concentrated
data-entry programs in history.

''Throughout the process of conversion undertaken this weekend by the
European Central Banking System, there has been no report of any
incident that could impede the start'' of trading in euros, the bank
said.

The central bank, with a staff of fewer than 600, is the pyramid of a
system that includes the national banks of the 11 countries adopting the
single currency - France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Belgium, the
Netherlands, Luxembourg, Portugal, Ireland, Finland and Austria.

While the central bank has the task of setting monetary targets such as
interest and exchange rates, the national banks with more than 65,000
staffers were responsible for watching over the transition to the new
currency.

National currencies were irrevocably locked into the euro Thursday,
turning francs, marks, pesetas, punts, schillings, lire, guilders,
escudos and markkaa - which will continue to circulate until the
introduction of euro bank notes and coins in 2002 - into subsidiaries of
the single currency.

The euro instantly became Europe's largest currency for noncash
transactions, which account for the vast bulk of movements in the money
supply. Over the weekend, tens of thousands of computer technicians,
secretaries, dealers and brokers worked to convert trillions of dollars
of securities into the new currency.

While European finance ministers proclaim that the euro will be a stable
and strong currency, too much strength is not entirely welcome news to
European economic planners. They fear that if the euro is too strong, it
could make it more difficult for Europe's exporters to sell their wares,
as a strong currency makes exports more expensive.

In Japan, the U.S. currency is weak anyway, having fallen to about 113
yen, its lowest level since October. Analysts said a successful launch
of the euro, drawing investments into Europe, could cause even more
headaches for the Japanese bond market, which last week fell to its
lowest level in more than a year after the government said it planned to
issue a record 31.05 trillion yen ($274.17 billion) in bonds this year

The Frankfurt-based European Central Bank said the prospect of a
successful conversion to the new currency was ''a sign of the quality of
the preparatory work carried out in the past months and years by the
community of central banks and by private operators in the financial
markets.''

Although there have been many dry runs, the first day of trading was
certain to be a major challenge for financial systems.

Even if the financial system comes through the first day of trading
unscathed, it will be several days before market operators will be able
to breathe easier. The deputy governor of the Bank of England, David
Clementi, warned that commercial banks and financial houses could face
''substantial losses'' because of botched trades or payments sent to the
wrong bank.

Jean-Claude Trichet, the governor of the Bank of France, said Sunday
that Europe's marketplace was an enormously complex system in which even
a small error could be magnified with unforeseen results. Merging 11
economies, he said, was like building a spacecraft in which each complex
element had to work not only on its own but as part of an integrated
system.

International Herald Tribune, Jan. 4, 1999


Assassination Politics

Prime Minister of Pakistan Escapes Bombing

A bridge too far


A powerful bomb blast outside Lahore yesterday which claimed four lives,
triggered fresh concern over the security of Nawaz Sharif, the Pakistani
prime minister.


The blast blew up a bridge near Raiwind, a suburb of Lahore, shortly
before Mr Sharif was due to drive over it. The explosion killed three
men walking along the road and a police inspector who was among those
making security arrangements ahead of Mr Sharif's journey.


Mr Sharif's family owns a farm in Raiwind, which is widely known as Mr
Sharif's weekend retreat. Officials said that Mr Sharif was due to drive
over the bridge on his way to the farm yesterday.


No one claimed responsibility. Police officials described the blast as
an "act of terrorism", an implicit reference to an assassination
attempt.


"Obviously it was targeting the person of the prime minister," said
Mushahid Hussain, the government information minister. "The government
has taken stringent measures to root out terrorism and this incident has
further strengthened our determination to fight against this menace."


Some officials blamed activists belonging to Karachi's Mohajir Qaumi
Movement (MQM). However, analysts said it was too early to hold any
particular group or individual responsible.


Mr Sharif's ruling Pakistan Moslem League (PML) broke ranks with the MQM
in the southern province of Sindh in October, after running a coalition
government for 20 months. The break came after the killing of a former
provincial governor of Sindh. Government investigators alleged that the
suspects subsequently arrested were MQM activists.


The MQM has denied its involvement in terrorism, including the killing
that caused the break. However, government officials say that the MQM,
which is headed by Altaf Hussain who is exiled in London, has trained
its activists in the use of firearms and explosives in an effort to
combat paramilitary and police troops used in Karachi, the provincial
capital.


Yesterday's blast comes as Mr Sharif faces an uphill task in restoring
political stability in the country, despite the PML's large majority in
parliament.


During his two-year rule, Mr Sharif has appointed a president, a supreme
court chief justice and a military chief of his own choice in an effort
to make his position unassailable.


However, the concentration of power has only intensified criticism from
his opponents.

The Financial Times, Jan. 4, 1999


Fin-de-siecle

End of World Shoot-Out in Jerusalem?

More Temple Mount Follies

EIGHT members of an American doomsday cult were arrested in Jerusalem
yesterday, suspected of planning a shoot-out with police which, they
believe, would hasten the end of the world and take them to heaven.
According to Israeli police, the cultists, who had six children with
them, planned "extremists acts" on Jerusalem streets in the final days
of 1999 to hasten the second coming of the Messiah. A police source said
the cult members believed that being killed by police "would lead them
to heaven and start the process of bringing Jesus back to life".
Violence was planned for Jerusalem's Old City, possibly the Temple
Mount, site of the Jewish temple destroyed in AD 70 and now occupied by
the Muslim shrine of the Dome of the Rock and the Al-Aqsa mosque.

The group is an advance guard of 78 members of the Concerned Christians
cult who sold their property and disappeared from Denver last October
and were believed to be heading to Jerusalem. Their leader, Monte Kim
Miller, has prophesied that he would die in the final hours of the
century and be resurrected three days later. His hold on his followers
is so strong that they are thought to be willing to commit mass suicide
at his order.

The three families were living in the smart Jerusalem suburbs of
Mevasseret Zion and Moza and gave up without a struggle. Miller was
understood to be abroad. A police statement said: "The arrests were
carried out to protect certain sections of the Israeli population and
members of the cult themselves who blindly follow a leader who is now
overseas."

The raid was led by the Jerusalem police chief, Yitzhak Yairi - an
indication of how seriously the authorities are taking the prospect of
disturbances during the Millennium celebrations by unbalanced or
temporarily deranged Christians. The authorities plan to deport the
group, but they will appear in court first.

Miller, a former marketing manager, founded Concerned Christians in the
1980s to fight what he saw as an anti-Christian bias in the media and a
perceived threat to Christianity posed by the burgeoning new age
movement. Over the years, critics say, Concerned Christians became an
apocalyptic personality cult with Miller's preaching developing an
anti-Semitic and anti-American twist.

Worries about the cult rose in 1997 when Nicolette Weaver, 17, testified
that her mother said she would kill her, if Miller ordered it. Miller
and his followers disappeared shortly after his prophecy that the
Apocalypse would begin with an earthquake in Denver last October did not
materialise.

Bill Honsberger, a Christian missionary who has studied the cult, said
at the time that if Miller's predictions failed to come true, his divine
edicts could turn violent. He said: "Because his followers believe he is
God they might also be willing to die if ordered to do so by him."

The London Telegraph, Jan. 4, 1998
-----
Aloha, He'Ping,
Om, Shalom, Salaam.
Em Hotep, Peace Be,
Omnia Bona Bonis,
All My Relations.
Adieu, Adios, Aloha.
Amen.
Roads End
Kris

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