>> >> Here's a short discussion of the book from Jerry >> Pournelle, best known for his science fiction novels, >> but also for his writings on computers and >> civilizations. >> >> Lessons from the Revolt of the Masses >> by Jerry Pournelle >> Thursday, April 13, 2000 >> http://www.intellectualcapital.com/issues/issue364/item >> 9054.asp >> >> The 20th century was and remains instructive, and we >> will be examining its lessons for a good part of this >> ambiguous year that is not quite part of the last >> millennium nor yet part of the next. Some of the >> lessons were foreseen, although like Cassandra our >> prophets spoke truth but were not believed. Other >> lessons are only now emerging. >> >> Controlling the masses >> >> You can characterize the 20th century in many ways, >> which is to say there are many lenses through which we >> can look at history. Choosing one and only one is a >> great mistake. Any one view is certainly wrong in some >> to many particulars, but we can learn from all of them. >> Marx and Freud had much to teach, but choosing either >> as one's master is folly. >> >> One observer not much remembered now is the Spanish >> philosopher Jose Ortega y Gasset, whose best-remembered >> book, The Revolt of the Masses, is still worth reading. >> The title is as good a one-line summary of the 20th >> century as any: a century in which the 18th-century >> notion of individualism held sway. That notion, as >> Ortega puts it, is that "every human being, by the mere >> fact of birth, and without requiring any special >> qualification whatsoever, possessed certain fundamental >> political rights . and these rights, common to all, are >> the only ones that exist." These notions kicked around >> in the 19th century, but it was only in the last half >> of the 20th that they came into their own. Now everyone >> believes in that philosophy or at least purports to. >> The consequences are grave. >> >> A few are obvious. When I was young, it was uncommon to >> put citizens accused but not convicted of crimes in >> chains. Only if the accused proved to be unruly was he >> handcuffed, and only if especially unruly was he put in >> full chains. Now we see elderly ladies led into the >> courtroom in handcuffs, leg irons, waist chains, >> looking for all the world like Jean Valjean being led >> to the galleys. When the absurdity is pointed out, we >> are told that because some people are unruly and >> violent and cannot be controlled even with handcuffs, >> equality demands that we do it with all. >> >> Even traffic stops often result in citizens with no >> criminal record and accused of no more than unpaid >> traffic tickets being taken to the stationhouse in >> handcuffs. We have learned the lesson: If you treat >> everyone equally, then you must treat everyone as the >> worst possible villain. To retain civilized equality we >> must give up civilization, or at least civility. >> >> Ortega thought the fundamental danger of the century >> was the supremacy of the state over society. >> Mussolini's fascism was a mere extension of the notion >> of liberal democracy that all social problems are >> amenable to action by the state, with the result that >> spaws the question: "Can we help feeling that under the >> rule of the masses the State will endeavor to crush the >> independence of the individual and the group, and thus >> definitely spoil the harvest of the future?" Certainly >> David Koresh and his followers in Waco would have >> understood that. >> >> Power at all cost >> >> On the other hand, Ortega was wrong in one particular. >> He believed that the old-fashioned kind of dictatorship >> was impossible. One could not rule by Janissaries or >> Mamelukes if only because the dictator needed the >> approval of his security apparatus: If you will rule >> through a gang of thugs you must retain the loyalty of >> the thugs. That has been proven wrong again and again. >> After Stalin died there was not a Stalinist left in the >> leadership of the USSR (although there were plenty >> among the faculty of American universities). Modern >> methods of social control are quite efficient. Rome >> endured centuries of civil war as legion after legion >> revolted to raise their commander to the purple. >> Nothing like that happened in the USSR so long as it >> endured, and nothing like that has happened in Cuba. >> Castro rules supreme and can still make mischief as he >> will, the suffering and privation of his people >> notwithstanding. >> >> And that is another important lesson for dictators >> taught by the last century: If you are a dictator, >> never let go. Hang on to the last. Contrast the >> declining years of Augustin Pinochet and Fidel Castro >> if you want a dramatic illustration. >> >> Of course, that advice may be easier to give than to >> take. Once again the 20th century teaches a stark >> lesson for dictators: If you want to remain in power, >> get nuclear weapons. You do not need many, but you must >> have some. It used to be that you didn't need any of >> your own; a firm alliance with a power that had them >> would do. Both the United States and the USSR protected >> unsavory regimes with their nuclear umbrellas. Now the >> USSR's umbrella does not extend so far (although quite >> far enough to give them a free hand in Chechnya and the >> various Russian Turkestans). Now you need your own >> nukes to be safe. >> >> There are other ways. The rulers of Haiti have managed >> without nukes, largely because they threaten the United >> States with their own total collapse. Without some kind >> of regime in Haiti the seas would be filled with leaky >> boats as the people of Haiti flee toward the United >> States. At the cost of American Janissaries to prop up >> the failing regime, we avoid all that. One suspects >> there are those who wish we could do the same with >> Mexico -- install and prop up a regime that would close >> the border from the other side. >> >> But while one may remain in power through Janissaries >> and the ability to annoy the United States, this is not >> anywhere near as safe as having nuclear weapons. >> Slobodan Milosevic learned that the hard way. If he had >> nukes we would never have bombed his country. Pakistan >> and India may practice ethnic cleansing all they wish; >> they have nukes. Don't forget Chechnya. And Saddam >> Hussein knows this lesson well. One suspects it is >> pretty clear to everyone in the Middle East, and after >> the Kosovo Bombardment (hardly worth dignifying it as a >> war), it should be clear to everyone. >> >> And on the home front >> >> Our final lesson for today is domestic, and it too >> grows out of principles Ortega expounded. You must not >> ignore the state in a mass society. Individual rights >> are not real unless bought with hard coin. Bill Gates >> has found that out. >> >> Does anyone imagine that the U.S. government would have >> gone through the machinations it did, transferring >> jurisdiction and files from the Federal Trade >> Commission to the Department of Justice and recruiting >> Microsoft's commercial rivals as participants in a >> government case against Microsoft, if Gates had donated >> a billion dollars to the current regime? If he had >> bought his nights in the Lincoln Bedroom? If he had >> made his large Washington office not a sales office, >> but a "public relations" office, complete with >> "information sessions" with free food and liquor for >> congressional and White House staff? If he had, in a >> word, paid the bribes to become part of Gore-Tech? >> Gates once served as a Congressional page. He was from >> a family long associated with the Democratic Party. His >> mother was appointed to the University of Washington >> Board of Regents by a Democratic governor, and Gates >> always made (modest) donations to that party. His view >> of the world was made in a very different time: he >> thought politics irrelevant to building a business. Now >> he knows better. >> >> In fact, we all know it would not have taken a billion. >> A hundred million would have been enough, and look what >> that investment would have returned. Gates personally >> lost billions in an hour after Judge Thomas Penfield >> Jackson's decision. So did most of America through the >> decline in the value of their pension funds as the >> NASDAQ nose-dived. >> >> So, as the politicians prattle about "campaign reform," >> the government has made it very clear: Ignore Imperial >> Washington at your peril. If you do, we will punish >> you. >> >> 'Pay the soldiers' >> >> Ortega y Gasset would not have been surprised. Neither >> would the historians of the Roman Empire. After Marcus >> Aurelius came Septimius Severus, whose advice to his >> children on how to remain in power was "Stay together, >> pay the soldiers, and take no heed for the rest." In >> our case the soldiers wear three-piece suits and carry >> briefcases, but they command armed troops. For details >> look up "Waco." >> >> There are many more lessons to be learned from the 20th >> century, but those will do for a start. >> >> Jerry Pournelle has written about computers and >> civilization for 20 years. He is a contributing editor >> for IntellectualCapital.com. 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