[DX-NEWS] ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP035 ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP35 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 35 ARLP035 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 30, 2013 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP035 ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity slipped this week, with the average daily sunspot number declining nearly 50 points to 77, and average daily solar flux down nearly 10 points to 116.4. In fact, those nearly numbers were 49.9 and 9.9. The latest prediction from NOAA/USAF (Thursday, August 29, 2013) has solar flux at 108, 105 and 108 on August 30 through September 1, 110 on September 2-3, 112 on September 4-5, then 115 and 120 on September 6-7, 125 on September 8-14, 120 on September 15, 115 on September 16-17, 110 on September 18, 105 on September 19-21, then 110 and 105 on September 22-23, and 100 on September 24-25. Until August 27-28, the forecast had solar flux dropping below 100 on August 30 through September 2, but the outlook was upgraded for this period. But note that flux values are predicted to drop below 100 on September 26-28. Predicted planetary A index is 20 on August 30-31, 12 on September 1, 5 on September 2-3, 8 on September 4, 5 on September 5-9, then 10, 15 and 18 on September 10-12, 8 on September 13-14, 5 on September 15-16, then 12, 18 and 15 on September 17-19, 5 on September 20-21, 12 and 8 on September 22-23, and 5 on September 24-26. Every day (usually between 2100-2200 UTC) you can see an update of all the above data at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html. Today I notice that the August 29 prediction (this bulletin is written every Friday long before 2100 UTC) was revised and re-released at 0839 UTC today, about 11 hours after the earlier version. I need to re-check those numbers! Much talk lately has centered around a possible dual peak in the current solar cycle. This would follow a patter established in recent solar cycles. If this is so, the first peak probably occurred in the Fall of 2011. Now it appears that perhaps the second peak was in Spring 2013. We are just a day away from the end of the month, so we won't see the actual averages until next week, but we can get a pretty close reading knowing the actual numbers for 29 of the 31 days in August. The average daily sunspot number for the first 29 days of August was 92.2. This is above the levels for June and July, 80.2 and 86.2, but lower than April and May. This also pegs the 3-month average of daily sunspot numbers (centered on July) around 86.1, based on data from 90 of the 92 days in that period. This is above all of the 3-month moving averages centered on September 2012 through March 2013, but lower than the previous three periods centered on April and May (106.4) and 97.5 for June. The two stand-out periods were both when the 3-month moving average was above 100. Those were centered on October through December 2011 (118.8, 118.6 and 110) and April and May of this year, when averages were both 106.4. We began tracking a three month moving average in early 2007, in the February 9 bulletin (see http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP006/2007) and have continued in each or the 78 months since then. For those unfamiliar with this concept, a moving average is used to smooth out the day-to-day variations in noisy data to make it easier to spot trends. If you wanted to create a 30-day moving average of any data, such as stock prices, temperature or sunspot numbers, you would add all the numbers for the previous 29 days to today's value, then divide by 30. Tomorrow you would drop off the first number in the series and include tomorrow's number. This continues, day after day, and what emerges is a graph that smooths out day-to-day variations, making it easier to spot trends. Because this bulletin was always text-based - 47 years ago as a child, I copied my predecessor's weekly propagation bulletins in Morse code from W1AW - I needed a simple way to present a moving average without the aid of graphics, in order to spot trends in the upcoming cycle. In this simple method, I would do an arithmetic average (adding all the daily sunspot numbers, then dividing by the number of days) for a three-month period. On the first day of April I would add all the numbers from January 1 through March 31, then divide by 91 in a leap year, and 90 in all other years. This reveals an average either described as centered on February, or the period ending in March. On May 1 I could average all the data for February through April, so every month, one old month drops off, and a new month is added. Wikipedia has a page explaining this at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average, and you can see there are many ways to slice and dice the data. Next week we will present the data described above, we will see the two peaks and decline since then. For some reason (it's Summer?) there were no reports from readers this week. I haven't looked at this site in a long time, and I see it has added many
[DX-NEWS] [425ENG] 425 DX News #1165
31 August 2013A.R.I. DX Bulletin No 1165 === *** 4 2 5 D X N E W S *** DX INFORMATION === Edited by I1JQJ IK1ADH Direttore Responsabile I2VGW A2 - WB6OJB as A25JK and K5LBU as A25CF will be active with two stations from Botswana on 5-12 September. Look for A25JK to operate SSB on 20-10 metres (possibly with some 40 and 80m), while A25CF will be doing some PSK on what ever bands might be open and A25JK is not on. QSL via home calls. [TNX NG3K] D4 - Barry, M0DGQ will be active as D44TXP from Ilha do Sal (AF-086), Cape Verde until 11 September. He operates CW only on 40 and 20 metres. QSL via M0URX (OQRS preferred). FO - Yoshi, JJ8DEN will be active as FO/KH0PR from three IOTA groups in French Polynesia as follows: 3-8 SeptemberAhe AtollOC-131 9-16 September Napuka Atoll OC-094 18-25 September Reao Atoll OC-238 He will operate CW and digital modes on 80-10m. QSL via JJ8DEN. [TNX DX World] HB0- Look for HB0/DL4AAE and HB0/DL3TU (www.mydarc.de/dl3tu/)to be active from Liechtenstein on the second or third full weekend of September. Weather permitting, they will try to operate from the summit of Augstenberg (2359 metres a.s.l.) using CW only on the higher bands with an emphasis on working Asia. All of the QSOs will be confirmed automatically via the bureau. Direct cards via home calls. HP - Invoker Team members Christian EA3NT, Raul EA5KA, Vincent F4BKV and Col MM0NDX will be active from the six IOTA groups allocated to Panama as follows: 5 September HP0INT/1 Naos NA-072 6-8 September HP0INT/3 Boca Brava NA-071 8 Septemper (evening) HP0INT/1 Naos NA-072 9-11 SeptemberHP0INT/2 Ogobsibu (San Blas)NA-170 11-13 September HP0INT/2 Grande NA-202 13-15 September HP0INT/9 Iguana NA-203 16-18 September HP0INT/4 Colon (Bocas del Toro) NA-088 They will operate CW and SSB on 40-10m. QSL via F4BKV (direct) or F5CWU (bureau), OQRS preferred for both options. Logsearch at www.invokerteam.com/hp0int/ [TNX DX World] I - The Calabria DX Team will be active as II8LH from the lighthouse at Scilla on 31 August. QSL via HB9FHZ (bureau) or IK8YFU (direct), LoTW and eQSL. I - Riccardo, IZ5JMX reports that he will be active as TK/IZ5JMX from Corsica (EU-014) on 1-13 September. He will operate SSB on 40-10 metres. All of the QSOs will be confirmed automatically via bureau. JA - Makoto, JI5RPT will be active as JI5RPT/6 from the Koshikijima Islands (AS-037) on 7 and 8 September. He will operate CW and digital modes. QSL via home call, direct or bureau. [TNX JN6RZM] KH9- The tentative dates for the K9W DXpedition to Wake Island are 5-19 October, with 7-18 October as QRV days (schedule based on Wake time, which is UTC +12 hours). The expedition's operating plan, QSL routes, propagation charts and other information can be found at www.wake2013.org SV8- A team of eight operators from Germany (Rich DK8YY, Hansi DL1AOB, Dieter DL1AWD, Ralf DL3JJ, Dan DL5SE, Felix DL6JF, Lu DL8ALU and Eddy DM5JBN) will be active as SW8YY from the island of Zakynthos (EU-052) on 17-29 October, including entries in the Worked All Germany (WAG, 19-20 October) and CQ WW SSB contests. They will operate CW, SSB and digital modes on 160-10 metres. QSL via DH7WW, direct or bureau (OQRS on Club Log), and LoTW. Further information can be found at http://sw8yy.weebly.com/ [TNX DX World] T8 - Will be active as T88TV from Palau on 10-16 September. He will operate CW only on all bands, with an emphasis on 160 and 80 metres. QSL via W5MJ. [TNX NG3K] UA - R7AM, R7LP, RA6DE, RU5D, RU6AX, UA6MF and UA6YW will be active as R20RRC/6 from Eyskaya Kosa Island in the Sea of Azov (RRA RR-17-02, not IOTA) from 30 August to 1 September. They will operate CW and SSB on 80-10 metres. QSL via RZ3EC. [TNX RU5D] V6 - Look for Hiroo, JA2VWG (V63DDD) and Seihachi, JA7LU (V63LU) to be active from Pohnpei (OC-010), Micronesia on 4-16 September. They will be QRV on
[DX-NEWS] [425ENG] 425 DX News #1165 [Calendar]
31 August 2013 A.R.I. DX Bulletin No 1165 === *** 4 2 5 D X N E W S *** *** CALENDAR *** === Edited by I1JQJ IK1ADH Direttore Responsabile I2VGW PERIOD CALL REF till 31/08 EA8/G7COD: Gran Canaria (AF-004) 1159 till 31/08 YB3MM/p: Kangean Islands (OC-217) 1165 till 01/09 9M2SE: Indah Island (AS-074) 1164 till 01/09 EH200D: special callsign 1162 till 01/09 NE1RD/1: Lovells Island (NA-148) 1165 till 01/09 R20RRC/6: Eyskaya Kosa Island (RRA RR-17-02) 1165 till 01/09 YB8S: Gangga Island (OC-236) 1165 till 02/09 EF3EGB: Medas Islands (EU-078)1164 till 04/09 9A/PA4JJ: Croatia 1164 till 09/09 SV8/PA1FJ/p: Chios Island (EU-049)1164 till 10/09 PA6SAIL: special callsign 1159 till 11/09 D44TXP: Ilha do Sal (AF-086) 1165 till 12/09 HC2IOH: Ecuador 1160 till 14/09 PD5MVH/p: Schiermonnikoog Island (EU-038) 1164 till 15/09 EG5VCE: special event callsign1164 till 15/09 JG8NQJ/JD1: Minami Torishima (OC-073) 1161 till 15/09 UE80RWW: special event station1161 till 20/09 OO: special prefix (Belgium) 1159 till 27/09 HC8/G8OFQ: Galapagos Islands (SA-004) 1164 till 30/09 SN150PS: special callsign 1157 till OctoberT6MH: Afghanistan 1125 till 08/11 FO/F5LCI: Hao Atoll (OC-066), French Polynesia1164 till November RU0ZM/0: Russian District KT-13 1155 till 15/12 C91GBA: Mozambique1155 till 15/12 JW9JKA: Bear Island (EU-027) 1153 till 31/12 4A1TD: special callsign 1143 till 31/12 9A280-9A289: special prefixes (Croatia) 1156 till 31/12 DL50FRANCE: special station 1131 till 31/12 DS4DRE/4: Hajo Island (AS-060)1150 till 31/12 EI13CLAN: special callsign1130 till 31/12 Gx100C: special callsign 1134 till 31/12 Gx100RSGB: special callsigns 1130 till 31/12 HA1973BA: special callsign1148 till 31/12 HA30S: special callsign 1136 till 31/12 HB30OK: special callsign 1130 till 31/12 OU1RAEM: special callsign 1130 till 31/12 RI1ANP: Progress Station (Antarctica) 1132 till 31/12 S5300TP: special callsign 1130 till 31/12 Z320RSM and Z320A-Z320Z: special callsigns1130 till Jan 2014 HC/IZ1DPS: Ecuador1164 till Feb 2014 VK0JJJ: Mawson station (Antarctica) 1135 till Feb 2014 ZS7V: SANAE IV station (Antarctica) 1136 till Dec 2014 5Z4/LA4GHA: Kenya 1145 till Dec 2014 6O0LA: Somalia1145 31/08-06/09 HP1/AI5P: Panama 1165 31/08II8LH: Scilla lighthouse 1165 August RV3EFH/0: Bolshevik Island (AS-042) 1139 August S5##EB: special callsigns 1163 August TU5DF: Cote d'Ivoire 1153 01/09-13/09 TK/IZ5JMX: Corsica (EU-014) 1165 02/09-13/09 3B9EME: Rodrigues Island (AF-017) 1164 02/09-09/09 TK9ZM: Corsica (EU-014) 1163 03/09-08/09 FO/KH0PR: Ahe Atoll (OC-131), French Polynesia1165 04/09-16/09 V63DDD and V63LU: Pohnpei (OC-010), Micronesia1165 05/09-12/09 A25JK and A25CF: Botswana 1165 05/09HP0INT/1: Isla Naos (NA-072) 1165 05/09-10/09 XW8XZ and XW1YC: Laos 1159 06/09-08/09 HP0INT/3: Isla Boca Brava (NA-071)1165 06/09-07/09 T8GM: Koror (OC-009), Palau
[DX-NEWS] Fwd: [dx-check:1514] Operation approved for DXCC credit
On Fri, Aug 30, 2013 at 10:52 AM, Moore, Bill, NC1L (ARRL Awards Branch) bmo...@arrl.org wrote: The following operation is approved for DXCC credit: _XZ1Z - MYANMAR_ 2013 Operation _NOTE: IF YOU'VE HAD THIS REJECTED IN A PRIOR APPLICATION, SEND A NOTE TO TO BE PLACED ON THE LIST FOR AN UPDATE TO YOUR RECORD. ALSO, PLEASE NOTE THE SUBMISSION DATE AND/OR REFERENCE NUMBER WHERE THE REJECTION WAS NOTED TO HELP EXPEDITE THE SEARCH FOR ANY REJECTED QSOS._ _ _ 73 es DX! Bill Moore NC1L Awards Branch Manager ARRL - THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR AMATEUR RADIO(tm) 225 Main Street Newington, CT 06111 Telephone: (860) 594 0234 Fax: (860) 594-0346 email: DXCC Web Site: www.arrl.org/dxcc [3] Blog: http://www.arrl.org/awards-blog [4] Twitter: arrl_dxcc Links: -- [3] http://www.arrl.org/dxcc [4] http://www.arrl.org/awards-blog --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list. Please send a message to imail...@njdxa.org In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscribe dx-news This is the DX-NEWS reflector sponsored by the NJDXA http://njdxa.org ---
